Hurricane Nicole

[olafminesaw]

Stronger

[Akeem the African Dream]

looks awful

like a typical November gale 

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

looks awful

like a typical November gale 

 Keep in mind that shear and 200 mb winds have been pretty high to this point. They'll be dropping per model consensus to unusually low levels for November over the next two days on the projected track while traversing 82 F SSTs. That's when models have it get better organized.

[StruThiO]

54 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

looks awful

like a typical November gale 

Denial is the first stage

[GaWx]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3722318-desantis-warns-floridians-to-prepare-for-tropical-disturbance-invest-98l/

 This is the first article I've seen regarding FL preps. It has interesting wording as it says,

"Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Sunday urged residents to prepare for a potential tropical depression that could hit the state’s east coast later this week."

 

 Prepare for a potential "TD"? Really? That's like telling Chicago to prepare for 1" of snow. 
 

Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS landfalls between Stuart and WPB as a cat 2 H Thursday morning.

[TPAwx]

2 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

The weather here has shifted drastically throughout the past 24 hours. Heavy rain showers coming off the ocean are becoming increasingly frequent, plus it is quite breezy. 
 

This whole week is basically gonna be a hurricane situation, and the weather is already setting the mood.

Im quite excited to see how this pans out on satellite, it seems to be a hybrid super-storm situation.

Please maintain vigilance as the outer bands approach.

[GaWx]

7PM TWO:

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located more than 300 miles north of Puerto
Rico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move generally
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or
so. The system is then forecast to turn westward or
west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle
part of this week where additional development is possible.

 Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal
flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf,
and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States
coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas beginning in the early to middle part of this
week. Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the
progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm
surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by
early Monday. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service and in products from your local weather
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[TPAwx]

[turtlehurricane]

We’re in the cone. I’m sure all the water in the stores has magically disappeared as of this moment 

[AChilders]

Average intensity seems down this morning across models, but also further south approach and swing into the gulf seem to be very plausible

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, AChilders said:

Average intensity seems down this morning across models, but also further south approach and swing into the gulf seem to be very plausible

Yep, the 6z Euro include with that trend. Pressure at landfall of 990-995 mb and strength of about 50 mph is my guess. A third landfall in Nova Scotia isn't out of the question as well, as per the GFS

[cptcatz]

06Z GFS shows landfall in Boca Raton (where I live) at 984mb vs Euro shows landfall in West Palm Beach at 998mb.  If you split the difference you get landfall in Boynton Beach at 991mb.

[jbenedet]

The lack of weakening advertised on the 6z GFS as storm traverses Florida is insightful - to my mind it points to storm entering most conducive environment to strengthening right as it nears landfall. 

We need to watch this aspect closely - track at landfall we are zeroing in on, but intensity looks like a big question mark. I believe we could see big shifts in this regard inside 24 hours

The track further south also means more time over warmer water. Being November 7, 100 miles means a lot in terms of SST's even off the southeast coast of Florida.

 

[NJsnow89]

 Looks like my trip to Orlando should be ok with the recent south trend?

[cptcatz]

3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

 Looks like my trip to Orlando should be ok with the recent south trend?

It's going to be a top heavy storm with all the bad weather to the north. Regardless of what happens Orlando is gonna get some nasty weather. Canceling your trip depends on what you plan on doing there. 

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

54 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The lack of weakening advertised on the 6z GFS as storm traverses Florida is insightful - to my mind it points to storm entering most conducive environment to strengthening right as it nears landfall. 

We need to watch this aspect closely - track at landfall we are zeroing in on, but intensity looks like a big question mark. I believe we could see big shifts in this regard inside 24 hours

The track further south also means more time over warmer water. Being November 7, 100 miles means a lot in terms of SST's even off the southeast coast of Florida.

 

6z GFS showing it maintaining mid-980s across the state and emerging just south of Tampa at 984

[Hyphnx]

Kids first Disney trip is supposed to happen on the 11th... Or was.

[olafminesaw]

Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look

[mikegl31]

I'm leaving for Disney tonight with the kids...watching this very closely.  

[Seminole]

20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Not exactly your classic strengthening TS look

Safe to say this one has a long way to go. 

[AChilders]

NHC now predicting this to attain hurricane status

[AChilders]

833 
WTNT42 KNHC 071458
TCDAT2

Subtropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1100 AM AST Mon Nov 07 2022

The structure of Nicole this morning remains distinctly subtropical, 
as the low-level circulation remains tangled up with an elongated 
upper-level low. The wind-field also remains quite broad, with data 
from the NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunters this morning showing the highest 
winds remaining displaced well away from the center. The initial 
intensity is being held at 40 kt for this advisory which is 
supported by the subtropical classification of ST2.5/35-40 kt from 
TAFB, the earlier scatterometer data, and recent SFMR winds from the 
NOAA-P3 aircraft in the 40-kt range. 

Nicole might be starting to take a northwestward turn this morning, 
with the estimated motion at 320/8 kt. A continued northwestward 
motion is expected through the day, though there might be some 
wobbles more north or west here and there as the low-level 
circulation continues to interact with the decaying upper-level low. 
After 24 hours, an anomalously strong mid-level ridge is expected to 
amplify over the southeastern U.S. which is expected to steer Nicole 
and result in the system turning westward or even west-southwestward 
on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This ridging will then re-position 
itself to the northeast of Nicole by Thursday and Friday which is 
expected to allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude after it 
moves across the Florida Peninsula, though how quickly this occurs 
is a source of track uncertainty in this time frame. Finally a broad 
mid-latitude trough is forecast to eject out of the Rockies into the 
Great Lakes region, further eroding the ridge and allowing Nicole to 
recurve by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is 
fairly tightly clustered for the first 60 hours of the forecast, 
though it has taken a noticeable shift southward this cycle, and the 
NHC track forecast was shifted a bit southward due to this 
adjustment, but still is a bit north of the HFIP Corrected Consensus 
Approach (HCCA). 

Intensity wise, Nicole may take some time to consolidate given its 
large radius of maximum winds and currently meager central 
convection due to nearby dry air related to the nearby upper-level 
low. This feature should gradually decay and warm 27-28 C 
sea-surface temperatures should enable more organized convection to 
develop while the system remains in a low vertical wind shear 
environment. Nicole is forecast to transition to a tropical storm 
sometime in the 24-36 hour period as this convection helps to 
contract the radius of maximum wind, with further intensification 
expected thereafter. The intensity guidance was a bit higher this 
cycle, and the latest forecast now takes Nicole to a 65-kt hurricane 
in 60 hours, which is close to the latest HCCA, HMON, and SHIPS 
guidance. After Nicole moves inland, weakening is anticipated, and 
the region that Nicole is forecast to emerge off in the northern 
Gulf of Mexico has cooler SSTs that likely would not support robust 
reintensification. Regardless on the ultimate intensity of Nicole, 
the storm's large size due to an enhanced pressure gradient north of 
the storm will likely cause significant wind, storm surge, and 
rainfall impacts over a large portion of the northwestern Bahamas, 
Florida, and the southeastern coast of the United States during much 
of the upcoming week.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the 
northwestern Bahamas and southeast to east-central Florida 
beginning Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch 
areas in Florida and Georgia beginning Wednesday.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible across portions of the 
northwestern Bahamas, much of the east coast of Florida and portions 
of coastal Georgia.  A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for most of 
the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia.

3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected 
to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the 
center, and outside of the cone, and affect much of the Florida 
peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.

4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall by Wednesday night and 
Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will 
be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with 
river rises on portions of the St. Johns River.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 26.2N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 12H  08/0000Z 27.0N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 24H  08/1200Z 27.7N  71.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
 36H  09/0000Z 27.6N  74.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 48H  09/1200Z 26.9N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 26.6N  78.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 27.3N  81.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 29.4N  83.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 33.3N  79.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

[jbenedet]

^That's a solid forecast at this hour.

 

 

[turtlehurricane]

Hurricane Watch here in Broward County Florida!!! It's been so long since we were so deep in the cone and got watches so early. I am beginning to go crazy but will have to save the meteorological analysis for after work.

[jbenedet]

I don't get the early recurve scenario - with most major guidance (ex the 6z GFS) showing a sig northern component returning to Nicole's trajectory while the UL trough axis is still over the Rockies.

6z GFS makes the most sense to me (by far). But still think it's slightly too far north across Florida. I don't think we see any notable latitude gains until Nicole is in the Gulf.

 

The whole scenario is evolving for a more impactful evolution-- a second landfall, then up the eastern apps into New England, as it phases and becomes extratropical, begins deepening. 

[TheGhostOfJohnBolaris]

12z GFS a touch more south and a touch slower than 6z through 48

 

Edit: A little stall from hours 48-54 causes it to go north sooner

[hawkeye_wx]

The latest GFS is 10 mb weaker than the previous run and 20 mb weaker than five runs ago.

[TPAwx]

GEFS has the system slightly southwest of the op run thus far.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: landfall near/just south of Cape Canaveral, which is similar to its prior run and 100+ miles north of 6Z Euro, 12Z GFS, and 12Z JMA. It is similar to the 12Z CMC and just north of the 12Z ICON. So, we have an interesting  battle between Euro/GFS/JMA and UKMET/ICON/CMC. Euro 12Z will be out soon.

12Z UKMET:

        TROPICAL STORM NICOLE     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.3N  69.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.11.2022    0  26.3N  69.1W     1004            37
    0000UTC 08.11.2022   12  26.9N  70.8W     1002            33
    1200UTC 08.11.2022   24  27.6N  72.0W     1001            36
    0000UTC 09.11.2022   36  27.4N  74.6W     1000            45
    1200UTC 09.11.2022   48  27.0N  76.2W      998            42
    0000UTC 10.11.2022   60  27.0N  78.5W      997            45
    1200UTC 10.11.2022   72  28.4N  81.1W      996            38
    0000UTC 11.11.2022   84  29.2N  83.2W      997            31
    1200UTC 11.11.2022   96  30.8N  83.3W     1001            29
    0000UTC 12.11.2022  108  34.8N  80.3W     1000            33
    1200UTC 12.11.2022  120  40.2N  73.5W      992            46
    0000UTC 13.11.2022  132  48.7N  64.6W      983            41
    1200UTC 13.11.2022  144              CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

   I think the 12Z UKMET track is probably too far north because it initialized at 26.3 N, 69.1 W. The NHC actual position for then was 25.9 N, 69.1 W. This means Nicole was initialized by the 12Z UKMET ~30 miles too far north.