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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

DIT is losing faith , for that he must confess to the deranged pope

The staff will set the subforum so that only DIT and the Pope can post for 24h…all confessions will occur and then we can move on into winter. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The next 15-20 days does not look good . It’s 20 wasted potential winter days in an already short season 

This is how you set yourself up for failure. Rushing the seasons. Like if May/June isn’t HHH, you hate it… even knowing it’s coming in July/August.  Feels the same when it comes to snow in November/December.

Even at 1,000ft in ORH, on December 15 the average high is upper 30s (38F).  And that’s at the coldest station in SNE.  Climo wise it’s Jan/Feb/Mar for snow.

I would worry more if you end up wasting January or February.  Not the last week of November into the first two weeks in December.

That snowfall can be made up in a hurry.  November’s snow average is 2.9” and ORH had that 2” event that pretty much satisfied climo.  Entire month of December averages under a foot.  That’s one good warning event in the entire month of December to keep pace.  SNE gets a widespread foot of snow from a coastal on New Years Eve and it’s a tick above normal snow month.

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is how you set yourself up for failure. Rushing the seasons. Like if May/June isn’t HHH, you hate it… even knowing it’s coming in July/August.  Feels the same when it comes to snow in November/December.

Even at 1,000ft in ORH, on December 15 the average high is upper 30s (38F).  And that’s at the coldest station in SNE.  Climo wise it’s Jan/Feb/Mar for snow.

I would worry more if you end up wasting January or February.  Not the last week of November into the first two weeks in December.

That snowfall can be made up in a hurry.  November’s snow average is 2.9” and ORH had that 2” event that pretty much satisfied climo.  Entire month of December averages under a foot.  That’s one good warning event in the entire month of December to keep pace.  SNE gets a widespread foot of snow from a coastal on New Years Eve and it’s a tick above normal snow month.

Thank you for putting things into perfect perspective…for all of us. Great post and info. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Keep on faxing in 22 John! Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours 

Have a great holiday Kev... Enjoy the family... The years just fly by... After 40 years, I have zero interest in changing the name; haven't faxed in 20 years but in no mood to change all the business paper work, email addresses, etc.  Hard to believe when I started the business, faxing was just starting to be used for realtime communication... Stay well... Don't worry, December will turn out just fine... Lol

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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

That snowfall can be made up in a hurry.  November’s snow average is 2.9” and ORH had that 2” event that pretty much satisfied climo.  Entire month of December averages under a foot.  That’s one good warning event in the entire month of December to keep pace.  SNE gets a widespread foot of snow from a coastal on New Years Eve and it’s a tick above normal snow month.

Which For me , speaks to how unsatisfactory average snow is lol. This post didn’t cheer me up it reminded me that well nevermind lol 

A metaphor perhaps  , “ Hey now little jimmy , yes folks  that live in LES snow belt and NNE elevations may have nice houses and we know you dream of one too, but remember where you come (Coastal plain)from and how much you make , most folks in your situation are living with their parents at 38 , so if you move into a studios  APT at age 35 your doing well for you . Chin up sport  “

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Which For me , speaks to how unsatisfactory average snow is lol. This post didn’t cheer me up it reminded me that well nevermind lol 

A metaphor perhaps  , “ Hey now little jimmy , yes folks  that live in LES snow belt and NNE elevations may have nice houses and we know you dream of one too, but remember where you come (Coastal plain)from and how much you make , most folks in your situation are living with their parents at 38 , so if you move into a study APT at age 35 your doing well for you . Chin up sport  “

I dunno, I’m fine with my climo. Doesn’t irk me.

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Should have known this was coming. The great block showing up was going to force everything south or just grind it up to a few flurries. There will at least be chances, all you can ask for going into December....

Lets get the cold air in here and then worry about that after.

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range models have a pretty wide spread by the first week of December. The EPS is the only model to have a more favorable Pacific pattern. It is showing  height rises along the West Coast which is different from the typical La Niña. The GEFS and GEPS maintain a La Niña trough near the west coast. So we probably need to wait for the models to settle down before buying into any scenario. This is especially true with how much the models have been jumping from run to run with the storm for Friday that got pushed back to Sunday. So if the models can’t even handle a 5 day forecast, then a week 2 forecast may not be very accurate either.

 

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23 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Should have known this was coming. The great block showing up was going to force everything south or just grind it up to a few flurries. There will at least be chances, all you can ask for going into December....

Really…?  You know better than this. Nothing is gonna get ground up like last year when we had that incredible -PNA. This is nothing even close to that garbage.  Silly post by somebody who knows better. 

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