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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies love December, but they keep 2nd half of November pretty meh.

EPS are a lot more bullish on colder weather for mid-month and beyond.

Yeah weeklies were meh but EPS looked good, so some differences there. Still think last third of the month offers chances. Maybe even after 15th. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah weeklies were meh but EPS looked good, so some differences there. Still think last third of the month offers chances. Maybe even after 15th. 

Yeah sometimes the weeklies lag the EPS by a cycle....I've noticed that. The EPS just recently went more ridging in the PNA region and that is what the weeklies weren't showing.

You can see how EPS is hitting that EPO/PNA ridge....weeklies don't show this as much

 

Nov4_00zEPS252.png

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies love December, but they keep 2nd half of November pretty meh.

EPS are a lot more bullish on colder weather for mid-month and beyond.

I can take or leave an inch or two of slush in latter Novie...just get me up off of the mat when climo winter begins.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah sometimes the weeklies lag the EPS by a cycle....I've noticed that. The EPS just recently went more ridging in the PNA region and that is what the weeklies weren't showing.

You can see how EPS is hitting that EPO/PNA ridge....weeklies don't show this as much

 

Nov4_00zEPS252.png

Yeah I can dig that. Hopefully we can hold that into December. 
 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can take or leave an inch or two of slush in latter Novie...just get me off of the mat when climo winter begins.

Yeah I'd love to have snow the last week of the month, but everyone knows the climo....there's a reason most of the forum outside the elevated areas of CNE/NNE average between 1-4" in November.

it's a really good sign that there is no sign of the AK pig returning. That's the biggest thing I'm following.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'd love to have snow the last week of the month, but everyone knows the climo....there's a reason most of the forum outside the elevated areas of CNE/NNE average between 1-4" in November.

it's a really good sign that there is no sign of the AK pig returning. That's the biggest thing I'm following.

Yea, the disaster scenario a la 2001, 2011 can be eliminated. I was never really concerned about it, but its nice to have confirmation.

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably last weekend to really enjoy so we’ll take. It’s gonna come. 

Yup, gonna grab some early dinner with the woman at a nice place, and sit outside in the warmth with a couple adult beverages…and savor the afternoon…in early November it’s truly a bonus.  But change is a coming for sure. 

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20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, gonna grab some early dinner with the woman at a nice place, and sit outside in the warmth with a couple adult beverages…and savor the afternoon…in early November it’s truly a bonus.  But change is a coming for sure. 

It is going to be a beautiful several days. 

There are so many places that have outdoor seating.. even along Queen street. Enjoy man ( looking forward to the changes ), but I will enjoy the nice days ahead beforehand.

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2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It is going to be a beautiful several days. 

There are so many places that have outdoor seating.. even along Queen street. Enjoy man ( looking forward to the changes ), but I will enjoy the nice days ahead beforehand.

Oh for sure, thanks my friend.  I’m usually not overly eager to sit outside, unless it’s perfect(not too hot or too cool), but these late season warm days are gorgeous, because you can sit in the sun and not cook while relaxing at an establishment. 

Thinking perhaps Restaurant Luce’ in Hamden…very nice place with a nice outdoor patio..and great grub and drinks.  

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Forecast for Paradise Lodge on Rainier:

Today
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 39. Wind chill values between 23 and 28. Windy, with a west wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.
Tonight
Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. Snow level 7900 feet lowering to 5200 feet after midnight . Low around 23. Wind chill values between 8 and 18. Windy, with a west wind 33 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Breezy, with a west wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Wind chill values between 9 and 16. Breezy, with a southwest wind 23 to 28 mph decreasing to 11 to 16 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. South wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Forecast for farther up the mountain was 45-51" today and 30-36" for tonight, etc.

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49 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Forecast for Paradise Lodge on Rainier:

Today
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 39. Wind chill values between 23 and 28. Windy, with a west wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.
Tonight
Rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of snow. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. Snow level 7900 feet lowering to 5200 feet after midnight . Low around 23. Wind chill values between 8 and 18. Windy, with a west wind 33 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Breezy, with a west wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Wind chill values between 9 and 16. Breezy, with a southwest wind 23 to 28 mph decreasing to 11 to 16 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. South wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Forecast for farther up the mountain was 45-51" today and 30-36" for tonight, etc.

Just your run of the mill 23-39” of snow…lol.  Would love to experience that. 

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15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Just your run of the mill 23-39” of snow…lol.  Would love to experience that. 

During Thanksgiving week in 1996 we visited my SIL and family who then lived near Olympia, and drove into Rainier National Forest.  At Longmire, ~2700' elev, there was mix, mostly SN, and 3-6" OG.  We headed toward Paradise at 5500' but couldn't get past 4000 (at Going to the Sky Bridge, IIRC) because our minivan had neither 4WD nor chains.  We drove back about 1/2 mile and maybe 200' elev, found a wide place to park and got out for a snowball fight - snow there was 3+ deep, made me wonder what was at Paradise.

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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

During Thanksgiving week in 1996 we visited my SIL and family who then lived near Olympia, and drove into Rainier National Forest.  At Longmire, ~2700' elev, there was mix, mostly SN, and 3-6" OG.  We headed toward Paradise at 5500' but couldn't get past 4000 (at Going to the Sky Bridge, IIRC) because our minivan had neither 4WD nor chains.  We drove back about 1/2 mile and maybe 200' elev, found a wide place to park and got out for a snowball fight - snow there was 3+ deep, made me wonder what was at Paradise.

I made it to Paradise Lodge in June 1990.  Obviously the roads were clear but there was still a ton of snow otg.

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