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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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45 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

facts? we ain't got time for facts.

i may be laughing at the premise of your posts that say November is a winter month-because it really isn't. plus like Will said above, March can produce way more snow. HOWEVER, i actually agree with this post of yours. November starts to get cold, starts to get that holiday vibe, which yes, eventually leads to snow. And March is the opposite. getting warmer, signs of spring, etc

Exactly . Folks don’t seem to get it . Nov is dark and is supposed to cold and stormy and beery .

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I like snow in November too…especially the second half, but more times than not the weather doesn’t do what we want or feel it should…even if it is low sun angle and short days. 

Snow in Nov before the last week melts usually like March snow, only difference is March snows are more prolific and numerous and often add to depth from February. Reason why he averages 2 inches in Nov and over a foot in December 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Lol that’s pretty funny actually. 

It’s like an 800 mile shift in the PV lobe. :lol:
 

And that was before the storm. Only like 6 days out. I expect shifts at d6 but usually not that big. Lol. We’ll see what ensemble say in a bit. 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s a day 8 threat but still not great. 

There’s some good members in there still. But whatever the OP saw at 18z, a decent number of the ensembles saw too. But it might mean nothing…one of the pet peeves I have is the ensembles sometimes follow the OP too much in the medium range. 
 

We’ll know a lot more in the next few runs. There’s a reason we see so few big snows in November. You need a lot of things to go right. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s some good members in there still. But whatever the OP saw at 18z, a decent number of the ensembles saw too. But it might mean nothing…one of the pet peeves I have is the ensembles sometimes follow the OP too much in the medium range. 
 

We’ll know a lot more in the next few runs. There’s a reason we see so few big snows in November. You need a lot of things to go right. 

Majority of the members are east of the op though

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not really. GEFS trended way north with the PV lobe too. Just not as much as the OP. 

Oh no, it’s over lol.
 

Hot open turkey sandwich on T Day now at 18z, instead of Swansons Frozen Turkey TV Dinner from 12z.  As usual the 18z crushes hopes more often than not.  
 

No worries,  as Forky said nobody cares about snow during the Thanksgiving weekend anyway. :lol:

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