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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

9 years ago today I woke up to 3/4” of fluff

4 years ago today there was 1" OG from the small storm on 11/10, with another 6" paste coming on the 13th - followed by 1/2" of 33° RA.  When I got home from work the flat half of the driveway was gray snowblower-clogging mush.  Had to stop it and empty the chute 4 times in 10 minutes, clearing maybe 5% of the gray area during that time, so I recognized futility and put the machine away.  Of course, the temp quickly dropped, freezing the deep ruts that then felt like driving over railroad iron for the next 2 weeks.

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Got up to 73 here. But right now 67F so slowly starting CAA. 
 

As for beyond today, euro pretty close to starting interior as a burst of snow. Mostly N of pike but can’t rule out a few flakes at start south of pike on early Wednesday morning. Euro has a solid advisory event for NNE. Maybe low
 

Tip is also right about the model guidance still being divergent on what happens beyond next weekend. Some try to relax the flow and go to seasonably mild weather (but not epic torch levels like we saw so far this month)…and others like GGEM keep the cold around. 

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So we're trending toward the marginal threshold re Wed afternoon...  It's quick miasma moving through with modest coastal cyclogen 'holding in' the cold, too - not hurting and a barrier jet/ageo mechanics will be pulling out of modest +PP.  That can only be inferred at this range so we'll see, but ice in the deep interior is also an option if we trend another tick below 850s - not hard from this range.  Euro's already an accumulating snow from EEN to CON, which is a step down cold improvement over priors.  

There's modest polar high draped across NNE... not large, but enough.  If we close off a 998er SE of NYC, we likely back the interior ... taking place under an 850 mb that's probably going to be closer to 0C between ORH and BED than currently modeled...   +2 is negotiable at this range.

We should have a low risk thread going ...  It's worth, because like I said, another tick lower through the 1380 low meters and it's the season's first.  

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So we're trending toward the marginal threshold re Wed afternoon...  It's quick miasma moving through with modest coastal cyclogen 'holding in' the cold, too - not hurting and a barrier jet/ageo mechanics will be pulling out of modest +PP.  That can only be inferred at this range so we'll see, but ice in the deep interior is also an option if we trend another tick below 850s - not hard from this range.  Euro's already an accumulating snow from EEN to CON, which is a step down cold improvement over priors.  

There's modest polar high draped across NNE... not large, but enough.  If we close off a 998er SE of NYC, we likely back the interior ... taking place under an 850 mb that's probably going to be closer to 0C between ORH and BED than currently modeled...   +2 is negotiable at this range.

We should have a low risk thread going ...  It's worth, because like I said, another tick lower through the 1380 low meters and it's the season's first.  

Might be less marginal for CNE to NNE.  Definitely a chance for first widespread snow of the season. 

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So we're trending toward the marginal threshold re Wed afternoon...  It's quick miasma moving through with modest coastal cyclogen 'holding in' the cold, too - not hurting and a barrier jet/ageo mechanics will be pulling out of modest +PP.  That can only be inferred at this range so we'll see, but ice in the deep interior is also an option if we trend another tick below 850s - not hard from this range.  Euro's already an accumulating snow from EEN to CON, which is a step down cold improvement over priors.  

There's modest polar high draped across NNE... not large, but enough.  If we close off a 998er SE of NYC, we likely back the interior ... taking place under an 850 mb that's probably going to be closer to 0C between ORH and BED than currently modeled...   +2 is negotiable at this range.

We should have a low risk thread going ...  It's worth, because like I said, another tick lower through the 1380 low meters and it's the season's first.  

hoping for something this week :snowing:

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Got up to 73 here. But right now 67F so slowly starting CAA. 
 

As for beyond today, euro pretty close to starting interior as a burst of snow. Mostly N of pike but can’t rule out a few flakes at start south of pike on early Wednesday morning. Euro has a solid advisory event for NNE. Maybe low
 

Tip is also right about the model guidance still being divergent on what happens beyond next weekend. Some try to relax the flow and go to seasonably mild weather (but not epic torch levels like we saw so far this month)…and others like GGEM keep the cold around. 

My non scientific gut feeling is that the below normal cold hangs around a little longer. I think we are seeing the usual model waffling around a major pattern change that is afoot… 

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6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

My non scientific gut feeling is that the below normal cold hangs around a little longer. I think we are seeing the usual model waffling around a major pattern change that is afoot… 

EPS was sort of siding with keeping the cold through Tday…even if not quite as cold as later next week/weekend. 
 

It seems the -EPO evaporates and sort of goes more into a -WPO pattern but there is still some ridging in the AO region. 

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