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November 2022 OBS/DISC


Baroclinic Zone
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26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Media not on the Tropical Storm yet. Signs increasing for a substantial hit with prolonged east winds into Florida from our stout high. Nice fetch development 

Should be nasty there with the king tide coinciding. I’m hoping for a nor’easter type deal here so I can get all the leaves down lol. 

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5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Violence on the models. Snow too.

Writing a risk assessment is giving fits this week .. jesus christ.

I mean, there's measurable impacts, but also intangibles here, due to acclimation concerns.   Civility, steeped in complacency from weeks of non-impact, warmer than normal abandon ... gets hit by hemispheric anchored winter Week-2.  Ranging to the Energy markets - how to impress to them that meters are about to spin fast enough to drill holes through the homes they're attached to.   But that's also the rub because ... this pattern that arrives on the heel of next weekend's ?near miss tropics? ( I mean if that were not enough?!), but sure bet frontal wind/squall whip, could either bring impact cold, or just seasonal cold.  Which?

Either way,  the abruptness is a uniquely interesting aspect in itself.  Typically, we don't go from 80F ( or 70 for that matter)...directly to cryo supportive air masses.  This is attempting to do so...  Usually, there is an interceding step in there. You know?  Like, it goes from continental whack-job heat, to an intermediate half way for a couple days or even a week... then, a deeper polar front comes in...  two days later, first snow.  

This is attempting to go from 77 to 42... 30s in the high country, immediately.  In a pattern that is rife with clipper snow shots.  

I mean, lots of vectors of uncertainty going on in all that 'violence' as you say.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

11/16-11/18 period keeps showing up for a potential winter threat. Early season caveats apply of course…NNE or interior elevations most likely to see anything that early. 

by the 20th...  ;)  ( not a condescension wink - just in deference to last week)

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12z GFS is a buzz kill...  man.  

I rather liked the subtle split flow evidenced by prior cycles...leaving some meandering disturbances in the S to zygote storms.  This 12z run is attempting to transition from ...whatever this screwy thing is, directly into a compressed N-stream storm suppressor pattern. 

Heh.   I dread this in January actually... if perhaps a warmer version of it.  But for now, hoping that's just the GFS being the GFS at D6-11 ...

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol Tip all pumped and the GFS crushed his hopes of some fun…back to reality I guess. No fun for you( or us)Tippy. :lol:

I don't even look until we fire the subscription up. Still long term mode for one more week, then vaca before I come back and flip to medium range.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not with the trough out west and -PNA like long range guidance is bringing back 

More to it than that....what is the NAO doing, how close by and pervasive is cold source, etc. Its not going to be record RNA like last December. Its like calling for another blizzard of 78 every time  a snowstorm is modeled.

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Just now, bwt3650 said:

It's looking like a great call when there was big pushback of the 15-25th being too early.

Yep. Weenie tip to Steve. Many times the pattern change is rushed but it appears to be working out. But I do caution that it may revert back later in November to a point. Obviously not like now lol.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Weenie tip to Steve. Many times the pattern change is rushed but it appears to be working out. But I do caution that it may revert back later in November to a point. Obviously not like now lol.

I’ve been cautioning same thing . This is a short lived pattern change . Not some pattern that will allow for winter threats for weeks 

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