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November 2022


Stormlover74
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If someone asked me if I'm ok to trade a early December cold shot. For a chance of something possibly better a little later. I'm going to say yes to that 100% of the time. Climo is trash in early December anyway. 

I was actually ready to punt this whole winter totally back in the summer. When looking at things. But right now? The punter is cut and this is interesting. 

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you bring that up you get called a weenie & dumb. 

The trends are not good and even SNE isn't safe in such a marginal pattern 

Who is calling you that  ? It's the same people every year calling a bust even before winter starts. 

Even the meteorologists in the SNE are perplexed how people are giving up .

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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you bring that up you get called a weenie & dumb. 

The trends are not good and even SNE isn't safe in such a marginal pattern 

The problem is that the look with a better pac and better block only lasts a few days. Then it goes back with more of a -pna with southeast ridge. 
 

I don’t think that look would be friendly for sne either. You already have a smoothed out mean showing a -pna with ridge in the east. Imagine what happens when we get closer? 

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The problem is that the look with a better pac and better block only lasts a few days. Then it goes back with more of a -pna with southeast ridge. 
 

I don’t think that look would be friendly for sne either. You already have a smoothed out mean showing a -pna with ridge in the east. Imagine what happens when we get closer? 

No one was forecasting a good PNA ridge.  The epo , nao and ao are going favorable. We need the NAO to suppress the ridge . 

The pattern forecasted looks way better than what it is now . 

Can it fail ? Sure but let's see where we are at during the 1st week of December. 

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Who is calling you that  ? It's the same people every year calling a bust even before winter starts. 

Even the meteorologists in the SNE are perplexed how people are giving up .

It is because they fail to understand that there is a difference between having a different point of view and cancelling winter....

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you bring that up you get called a weenie & dumb. 

The trends are not good and even SNE isn't safe in such a marginal pattern 

That happens far too often....it discourages more people from posting. Some  people prefer to lurk rather than incurring the wrath for posting something along the lines of " I think a pattern change is still a few weeks away from taking place "

Simply amazing how hypersensitive some people are when it comes to having an open discussion about winter.  A discussion should be about an exchange of thoughts and ideas. It should not be about hurling insults.

 

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What I love is seeing blocking remain in place. 

The PAC keeps re shuffling duo to MJO loop, but the blocking keeps us in the game throughout.

Was just checking out the MJO from that run. But the biggest question, for me personally, is what happens beyond the end of these runs.

20221125_151238.thumb.png.54a66ef54b67dfd88f5838c67f32206b.png

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12 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Was just checking out the MJO from that run. But the biggest question, for me personally, is what happens beyond the end of these runs.

20221125_151238.thumb.png.54a66ef54b67dfd88f5838c67f32206b.png

I do have a question, is phase 7 warm in January in a La Nina? I know it's cold in December.

May become important as we keep looping 5 through 8.

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21 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Simply amazing how hypersensitive some people are when it comes to having an open discussion when it comes to discussing winter.  A discussion should be about an exchange of thoughts and ideas. It should not be about hurling insults.

 

There's much to more at stake when there are feelings involved. 

I always wondered about weather discussion boards implementing a "forecasting advisor" role, along with mods. Someone to bring those folks back down to earth. 

IJS

 

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12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I do have a question, is phase 7 warm in January in a La Nina? I know it's cold in December.

May become important as we keep looping 5 through 8.

Well it's complicated and even ensembles are struggling lately. You see how the mjo is on the move in that photo. But you can also see the residual stuff hanging out by the MC and also near South America throughout the whole run. So you can end up with a mash-up pattern with competing influences. I think bluewave has mentioned that before too. It also needs to be strong enough to force anything. Sometimes it isn't. So increased caution is suggested with these charts this particular year. But here's the link for the Italian site where I find them you can check it out.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

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