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November 2022


Stormlover74
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35 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

We watch, we wait. -NAO does have some support to be real this December for once. Due to actions taking place this month. We seem to be on a path less traveled this year. Should be interesting. 

eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022112100_MEAN_240.thumb.png.bd6a8331f289570826713391d378f890.png

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Interesting if we could trace all this back to the blocking we had in October lol

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The 0z Euro is  the only model that has a big storm now for Friday into Saturday. The CMC and GFS keep the streams separate  with a weaker northern stream low crossing the lakes. So they don’t have a wave break following the low. This looks like why the EPS has stronger blocking in early December and the other guidance is weaker. The blocking in early December may come down to how strong a storm we get later in the week. Very low skill forecast at this point.
AA11208E-4B26-4A12-8BBB-09D03082D914.thumb.png.cb8ff484c1378b8dd56e342ed5fdeb02.png
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17659207-100B-4F8E-AB4F-4B34EF24027C.thumb.png.d2ea7e39da654d836388c4a7e1ace837.png
 

The Euro bombs the low and causes a wave break, without that you don’t get the stout -NAO block


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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting if we could trace all this back to the blocking we had in October lol

That would be great. However there seems to be too much variance during October. Recent research suggests. November however, may hold many more clues. Recent research also points towards that being the case. 

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29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


The Euro bombs the low and causes a wave break, without that you don’t get the stout -NAO block


.

I can’t remember the last time that all 3 models were so different at 5 days out. The CMC and GFS squash the southern stream with no wave break to pump the -NAO into early December. The Euro and EPS have a more amplified southern stream storm resulting in a wave break and stronger -NAO into early December. There was a strong storm at the end of November 2020 causing a wave break which flipped the -NAO going into December with 60-70 mph gusts on Long Island. 
 

C47FE6DB-2A15-4619-8066-1E29F3F16481.thumb.png.c693dabe4564e1cc3ccaea2e87e38da8.png

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12 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

So basically it is not a fully phased system.

The CMC went from a 959 mb low in New England on Saturday to a suppressed system and no storm in one run. Similar reversal on the GFS. The Euro seems to be slowly backing away from the stronger solution at 6z as the southern stream low lags behind.  So this could be one of the worst model performances of the year so far. 
 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 0z Euro is  the only model that has a big storm now for Friday into Saturday. The CMC and GFS keep the streams separate  with a weaker northern stream low crossing the lakes. So they don’t have a wave break following the low. This looks like why the EPS has stronger blocking in early December and the other guidance is weaker. The blocking in early December may come down to how strong a storm we get later in the week. Very low skill forecast at this point.

AA11208E-4B26-4A12-8BBB-09D03082D914.thumb.png.cb8ff484c1378b8dd56e342ed5fdeb02.png

A8EF70A7-386F-4C77-BD9D-5E531E4455F1.thumb.png.4f135b6e27c2262bde91fe99c1d008f1.png
C82CE269-D03F-4933-A4BA-52AF4BA3946D.thumb.png.83a418966a4d72fe252d63870680bb82.png

17659207-100B-4F8E-AB4F-4B34EF24027C.thumb.png.d2ea7e39da654d836388c4a7e1ace837.png

 

 

The 06Z GEFS ultimately gets there 360-384 anyway, just takes a different path to do so

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_64.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging   44degs,(39/50) or maybe -1.

Probability of an AN Winter has increased.      Want to bet on an AN Winter around here you must now risk $1.76 to win $1.00---formerly it was  $1.38.     77% for a Normal or AN Winter.

[New Forecast]

Month to date is   53.2[+3.6].          Should be about   52.6[+2.4] by the 29th.

Reached 42 yesterday at 1am, and a daytime high of 36 at 3pm.

Today:    40-43, wind w.-breezy, m. sunny, 36 tomorrow AM.

30*(49%RH) here at 6am.       32* at 9am.       35* at Noon.       36* at 1pm.      40* at 2:30pm.       Reached 43* at 4pm.        41* at 6pm.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The CMC went from a 959 mb low in New England on Saturday to a suppressed system and no storm in one run. Similar reversal on the GFS. The Euro seems to be slowly backing away from the stronger solution at 6z as the southern stream low lags behind.  So this could be one of the worst model performances of the year so far. 
 

6453A082-E151-4002-879A-1707016C4EB8.thumb.png.94d87d279b4f30273e522ab9487e4be9.png

7CE2A2BE-8D4F-4E82-A213-7ECAD539CACC.thumb.png.e2650398387fed5d9d16c1f7129648f8.png


 

49477D72-F7BA-44D3-8CE1-33EDCB13F837.thumb.png.69c55c52e01a3a8603a557c8a63d588d.png

1E0ADB7B-5888-4363-8A61-C1A8676B4834.thumb.png.06569b00c29308b3e1ba62c8b377c8e6.png

 

No storm this weekend is the likely outcome

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