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November 2022


Stormlover74
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A prolonged period of below normal temperatures has now set in. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the week.

A storm will likely bring a cold rain to the region tomorrow night into Wednesday. A few interior sections could briefly see some frozen precipitation. An accumulating snowfall is likely across parts of upstate New York and northern New England.

Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could develop. Early indications suggest that the blocking won't be strong (with the AO staying mainly above -1.000). Its duration remains uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +0.82 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.336 today.

On November 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.559 (RMM). The November 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.713 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 49.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles looking pretty decent for December. Notice -AO trending stronger everyday

Could be a few mild days in there too. Agree with snowman that snowy pattern will have to wait until AO blocking materializes. 

It’s going to get mild the tail end of this month, then the question becomes what happens after this? I’ll believe -NAO/-AO blocking when it moves forward in time and doesn’t stay in the long range. We’ll see 

 

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Morning thoughts…

Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds. A cold rain will overspread the region late in the day or during the evening. Some interior sections could see a brief period of snow or sleet at the onset of the precipitation. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 48°

Philadelphia: 48°

Colder than normal temperatures will last through the week. A very cold weekend is likely.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 54.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 55.1°; 15-Year: 55.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.1°; 15-Year: 56.1°

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