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November 2022


Stormlover74
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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We should probably develop our own custom teleconnection indices based on how anomalous the raw 500mb height anomalies are. I like using the NAEFS site for finding record minimums and maximums. Plus we can also use how many meters above and below the 500 mb heights are. The forecast for next week is showing up as a 5 sigma block near Alaska which would be a record for this time of year.


82A371BE-25CB-48CB-9116-9D4B5E24AEBF.thumb.jpeg.3ef718f6c9f981e54955fba514457f50.jpeg

I agree. It wouldn't be difficult to construct standardized values from the values provided on the PSL website. I have inquired as to whether the values shown on the site are ordinary values or whether they are already standardized just to be sure what the site is showing.

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15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. It wouldn't be difficult to construct standardized values from the values provided on the PSL website. I have inquired as to whether the values shown on the site are ordinary values or whether they are already standardized just to be sure what the site is showing.

Yeah, we are going to need the record -EPO for parts of Long Island like Islip to get their first freeze. Islip is already in the top 5 latest  without a freeze. So a continuation of needing record blocking just to get some colder temperatures around here. 
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 9
Missing Count
2022-11-09 36 0

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218
2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217
1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202
1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203
1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214
2005 04-17 (2005) 30 11-11 (2005) 30 207
2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224
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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we are going to need the record -EPO for parts of Long Island like Islip to get their first freeze. Islip is already in the top 5 latest  without a freeze. So a continuation of needing record blocking just to get some colder temperatures around here. 
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 9
Missing Count
2022-11-09 36 0

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218
2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217
1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202
1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203
1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214
2005 04-17 (2005) 30 11-11 (2005) 30 207
2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224

FYI, the numbers are not standardized as per PSL.

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Temperatures surged into the 60s and even reached 70° in parts of the region today. It was even warmer in the Great Lakes region. Milwaukee hit 77°, which broke the daily record and tied the monthly record. Alpena, MI reached 78°, which set a new November record. Farther west, the temperature was in the teens in Bismarck with heavy snow.

Rain will overspread the area tomorrow as Nicole moves northward. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely from late Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. Parts of the region could see strong thunderstorms, as well. In addition, as the system undergoes baroclinic deepening while heading toward upstate New York and northern New England, it could turn very windy on Saturday. Parts of the region could see gusts of 50 mph.

With the region's being in the storm's warm sector, the mercury could reach or exceed 70° tomorrow and Saturday in parts of the area. Currently, Newark has 7 70° days this month. That ties the November record, which was set in 1975 and tied in 2020. JFK Airport has seen 5 70° days, which ties the November record set in 1975.

Following the storm and cold frontal passage, much colder air will pour into the region Saturday night. Minimum temperatures will dip into the 30s for the first time this season Sunday night or Monday morning at LaGuardia Airport and Central Park. Highs will recover to no higher than the upper 40s and perhaps lower 50s through the middle of next week.

Beyond mid-month, Atlantic blocking could try to develop. Its magnitude and duration, should it develop, remain uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around November 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.71°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +17.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.439 today.

On November 8 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.241 (RMM). The November 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.612 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.3° (2.3° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

Rain associated with Nicole will arrive late this morning or early this afternoon. Periods of rain and thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. The wind will also pick up, especially in coastal regions. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 71°

Rain will end. It will be very warm and windy with gusts as high as 50 mph in parts of the region. Much colder air will press into the region tomorrow night setting up an extended period with below normal temperatures.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 55.6°; 15-Year: 55.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 56.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.6°; 15-Year: 57.5°

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9 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Beautiful. I can see EWR hitting 75 tomorrow; granted we get breaks of sun, which I think we will. 

I dont know about the sun. would need to happen this morning…and that wont help too much. The radar shows a wall of water moving in from late morning onward.

Surprisingly, all the airports are starting off below 60F

53F here in Westchester

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More record heat next few days. The models have 70s right out onto Long Island on Saturday with a warm offshore flow. The record high of 67 at Islip looks easy to beat.

Islip Area, NY
Period of record: 1963-09-05 through 2022-11-10


 

11/11 68 in 2020 66 in 1970 65 in 1974
11/12 67 in 2014 66 in 2021 66 in 2020+



8D0F4B88-F28D-41F6-9D92-40E994F78064.thumb.png.f1fcc10bb354a45033cc7c2bbfe5ab12.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging   50degs.(45/55) or +2.

Looking WARM again on the GFS OP, Ens. is still generally BN:

1668146400-oyRmDKQKCmQ.png

Month to date is   60.8[+9.7].       Should be    56.0[+6.3] by the 19th.

Reached 64 here yesterday.

Today:    66-68, wind e. to s. to. w.-gusty by late PM-to 30mph., rain by 1pm till early tomorrow AM., 67 tomorrow AM.

{Low was 60* at Midnight }  62*(92%RH) here at 6am.    64* at 9am.      66* at 11am.      Down to 64* at Noon.       65* at 8pm.      66* at 10pm.

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