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November 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

rainer

we are back in the cad, brief warmup, rainer cycle again

Givver a chance

Edit: Or do you really science dictates that it's likely gonna be a rainer? As of now it seems to be an even spread on all the models in terms of position but obviously I know very very little.

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i get the fantasy range caveat but looks like a rainer across the board friend, not sure what i'm missing

I guess you're not missing anything, I'm just biased towards the fantasy range caveat. It only takes one or two blizzard runs for me to be hopeful :arrowhead:. That's the issue with having little real forecasting knowledge outside of looking at models 24/7.

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58 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Givver a chance

Edit: Or do you really science dictates that it's likely gonna be a rainer? As of now it seems to be an even spread on all the models in terms of position but obviously I know very very little.

 

 

 

Alek's already set the narrative with the futility record call.  Now it's all about justifying it at every turn, even though it's only November.

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3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

zzzzzzzzz

Unfortunately also in my case this, starting Sat the wx turned to absolute s*** and what do I get out of this? Just two inches (of snow) as of right now when patterns like this in the snow belt should yield colossal amounts like 1-2 feet. Same story every year when we get a cold snap in Nov.

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I got 4 inches of snow from yesterday’s and last night’s lake effect event. The big winners were about a half hour north of me where 13 inches fell. I also saw a report of 8 inches about 45 minutes south of me. 
 

Currently seeing flurries. The lake should help boost the squalls going through Chicagoland. Thinking I could get another inch tonight before all the lake snows stay north of the border.

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On 11/15/2022 at 4:00 PM, Malacka11 said:

I guess you're not missing anything, I'm just biased towards the fantasy range caveat. It only takes one or two blizzard runs for me to be hopeful :arrowhead:. That's the issue with having little real forecasting knowledge outside of looking at models 24/7.

I don't think anyone has better insight at fantasy range.  Sometimes models keep clowning right up into 12 hours before the event.  

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Flurries have been falling pretty much constantly the last 2 days, along with a few snow showers. Had a light dusting last night of 0.1" but due to the flow was missing the 1-3 inch accumulations that hit North of Detroit. Like I said in the Buffalo thread, I can't stand missing an inch of snow by a few miles. I'd be on suicide watch for missing a few feet lol

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's November 18.

If there's anything that puts the nail in the coffin on December, it's gotta be the ever so accurate day 13-16 on the op GFS.

 

Sarcasm aside, the models really are struggling. Hoping the goods do come after a mild 1st week of the month as was alluded to by some recently.

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20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

If there's anything that puts the nail in the coffin on December, it's gotta be the ever so accurate day 13-16 on the op GFS.

 

Sarcasm aside, the models really are struggling. Hoping the goods do come after a mild 1st week of the month as was alluded to by some recently.

If we get to ~December 10 with it being mild and no change on the horizon, then I'd be concerned about the remainder of the month.

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