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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You know the drill with the LR guidance.

 

I wouldn’t mind a can kick as long as we do get a supportive snow pattern eventually (which I do think will happen with that high latitude look plus MJO progression). Climo is so much better by Dec 15. 

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On 11/20/2022 at 11:04 AM, IUsedToHateCold said:

A 2-4 week period of warmth in early December makes sense. I think we rock after that. Could see a repeat of what we saw this month with very warm temps followed by a crash, cold, and this time- snow.

Still think this. Totally fine with a crap pattern for the next few weeks. Then we reload. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I wouldn’t mind a can kick as long as we do get a supportive snow pattern eventually (which I do think will happen with that high latitude look plus MJO progression). Climo is so much better by Dec 15. 

Bad news for the Debs, haters, and losers today. 12z GEFS back to winter D12+.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hate that blob ridge near the Aluetians...."usually"......but with a ridge bridge from the EPO to NAO and a split flow coming onshore western n america, that can overcome the central PAC pig ridge. I like how said ridge (base state?) is feeding the EPO. We take.

It's a prominent feature of a Nina. Keeping it somewhat in check is a constant battle for our purposes. Ideally it would be more poleward over AK rather than broad and flat south of the Aleutians. What the models are depicting is a bit of both over the next 10 days or so, and the vortex near Okhotsk will continue to influence the character of that ridge. We need the -NAO to be legit and west based to counter the tendency for a trough out west and to keep the SE ridge flat.

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4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Not a bad look.

Split flow. Plenty of NAO blocking.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_64.png

2m temp anomaly looks ok.  For mid Dec that could put us in an ok spot.  Not sure how stable that NAO will be.  Sometimes our biggest issue is never being in the game long enough to score. 

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