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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

If the early Dec deep western trough rolls quick like what's been happening all fall, Dec will keep a lot of people glued to screens every 6 hours :lol:. And if a stable block sets up then 10x as many will be glued...

Could be another 3 weeks western trough, eastern ridge like late October early Nov. Lol.  Let's hope not.  

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Latest edition of the Euro weeklies at h5 plus surface temp anomalies, one week beyond the 0z EPS run it initialized off of. We see the Okhotsk vortex continue to weaken, and the pattern progressing accordingly with +heights building in the EPO domain, and ditto in the NAO domain. A pretty nice look. Worth noting the 12z EPS took a slight step back in weakening that vortex as compared to the 0z run.

1670889600-Nw6hc7xYEAc.png

1670889600-Ylf9ekzLZUg.png

 

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I wouldn’t get hung up in what happens 2 weeks from now.  2 weeks ago Thanksgiving looked wintry.  That bird was stuffed and served with a side of mid 50s and partly cloudy.  

Perfect weather as far as I'm concerned.  We're generally abysmal at November snow anyway.  December is game on, though.

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, I still can't get the multiverse treble hook out of my mouth. I bit that ish hard lol. 

You are just out of message board shape. A couple trolls, some memes and weather will probs maps will have you back on your A game. 
 

Bob Chilly>>>A few universes short of a happy meal 

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPO-NAO ridge bridge??? Pinch me. Anyone who gets antsy seeing the SE ridge should chillax… That will get beat down and you want something keeping the storm track nearby in that look. 

I can envision a path to victory with a wave moving along the boundary around the 10th with that look.

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Just now, CAPE said:

I can envision a path to victory with a wave moving along the boundary around the 10th with that look.

Yup. End of the 12z Op GFS is illustrative of what could happen with such a look. Successive waves beat down the SE ridge and supply cold air and then we get a wave to move toward us with a conducive environment. This is a very normal way we get snow. 
 

It’s a ways off so need to see how stable this look is…but man oh man, it’s pretty. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yup. End of the 12z Op GFS is illustrative of what could happen with such a look. Successive waves beat down the SE ridge and supply cold air and then we get a wave to move toward us with a conducive environment. This is a very normal way we get snow. 
 

It’s a ways off so need to see how stable this look is…but man oh man, it’s pretty. 

That's pretty much the way it went in the early Jan storm last winter. And it wasn't like the cold had to get established for multiple days- it was 60 the day before. Cold pressing and well timed healthy wave.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's pretty much the way it went in the early Jan storm last winter. And it wasn't like the cold had to get established for multiple days- it was 60 the day before. Cold pressing and well timed healthy wave.

Yup. And that ridge bridge with a trop PV underneath could supply some legit cold air.

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, I'm diggin the quick carve progression in early Dec. Fits into the personality of the last 1.5 months. Fast starts and good winters are rare. 2013 was the last one right? 

Pretty much. Had some snow in 2017 and 2020 too, but 2013 was last real winter month December.

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The NAO signal has been there off and on for awhile. But the -EPO has really grown on the D10+ progs over the last 48 hours.

 

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty intense for D14-15

 

Nov22_12zEPS348.png

 

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's been a while since I've seen the EPS this bullish on NAO blocking that far out in the run....the mean is like 250dm anomalies for D14-15

 

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we're also going to see very strong high pressure move into Mongolia over the next 5-7 days, leading to a +EAMT that will extend the Pacific jet and lead to the anomalous -EPO that's showing up on modeling... so I think that's for real

the blocking is a bit more nebulous, but with all the Scandinavian ridging I think that there's a better chance than not of a -NAO after the first week of December

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-asia-mslp_anom-1669118400-1669420800-1670414400-20.thumb.gif.1c8ae416ebd638a6894724803ace235a.gif

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