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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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27 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Oh good.  Because 18z is ever so slightly different than 12z.

Resembles 12z euro from yesterday at surface. Starting to see 2 camps emerging maybe....wound up GL track vs weaker more progressive low tracking closer to our latitude(s). We're pros at playing the "2 camps" game....and we almost never end up on the fail side ;)

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

Resembles 12z euro from yesterday at surface. Starting to see 2 camps emerging maybe. 

I think there are three distinct camps beginning to form, the first one is like the 18z GFS which has a very far north low pressure system with no high to pump cold into the northeast. Second camp has the energy forming a costal with blocking in place, like the 12z GFS. Finally the last camp is like the 12z Euro that holds the energy back in the southwest. 

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Wrt late next week, trends I see in the last few model cycles, including 0z runs: NS dominant- energy riding over the ridge and dropping SE. Looks like more of a broad lobe of vorticity than a distinct, sharp shortwave. Latest Euro op has a shot of rain Friday with a piece of southern energy running out ahead of the approaching trough. The look on the ens means is progressive pattern/trough positive to neutral, and the trend is coastal low development offshore/a bit too far north for us. Colder air filters in behind. Upshot at this juncture is the prospects look a bit meh for most of us based on current model depiction, but the general look and idea is still there. The western highlands otoh could see a pretty robust upslope event with the passage of that NS vorticity. All subject to change 7 days out ofc, so keep tracking.B)

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Wrt late next week, trends I see in the last few model cycles, including 0z runs: NS dominant- energy riding over the ridge and dropping SE. Looks like more of a broad lobe of vorticity than a distinct, sharp shortwave. Latest Euro op has a shot of rain Friday with a piece of southern energy running out ahead of the approaching trough. The look on the ens means is progressive pattern/trough positive to neutral, and the trend is coastal low development offshore/a bit too far north for us. Colder air filters in behind. Upshot at this juncture is the prospects look a bit meh for most of us based on current model depiction, but the general look and idea is still there. The western highlands otoh could see a pretty robust upslope event with the passage of that NS vorticity. All subject to change 7 days out ofc, so keep tracking.B)

the EPS and GEFS are completely different in how they handle the PV lobe in SE Canada

the EPS is similar to the better runs where it acts as a 50/50, while the GEFS leaves it much farther NW and torches everyone

now we just need to see which is correct! could go either way. this is a very touchy setup

A72D233C-3B5F-4E47-AAA3-8BC03D344924.thumb.gif.c6882e519ba5e1346550ef07ee1803ed.gif

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2 hours ago, nj2va said:

6z GEFS similar to the depiction that CAPE described above.  NS energy that drops in from the Lakes and redevelops off the coast (almost has a Miller B look to it).  

image.thumb.gif.6228c943b058132e011dc31431b9a6af.gif 

Thank you for focusing on the ens. I know YOU know this and some others, but i was waiting for someone to come in and claim the GFS op has a full-on Nina look with a racing progressive NS that doesnt have anything to slow it down and amplify it. Of course it is a possible outcome since we are in a Nina, but for now the best bet is use the ens past 5 days or so. 

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Wrt late next week, trends I see in the last few model cycles, including 0z runs: NS dominant- energy riding over the ridge and dropping SE. Looks like more of a broad lobe of vorticity than a distinct, sharp shortwave. Latest Euro op has a shot of rain Friday with a piece of southern energy running out ahead of the approaching trough. The look on the ens means is progressive pattern/trough positive to neutral, and the trend is coastal low development offshore/a bit too far north for us. Colder air filters in behind. Upshot at this juncture is the prospects look a bit meh for most of us based on current model depiction, but the general look and idea is still there. The western highlands otoh could see a pretty robust upslope event with the passage of that NS vorticity. All subject to change 7 days out ofc, so keep tracking.B)

Nothing can happen until December 16.   I'll be in SC for Thanksgiving, so this isn't happening.  Then Thailand for 3 weeks until the 16th.  I'm sorry guys.  

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS and GEFS are completely different in how they handle the PV lobe in SE Canada

the EPS is similar to the better runs where it acts as a 50/50, while the GEFS leaves it much farther NW and torches everyone

now we just need to see which is correct! could go either way. this is a very touchy setup

A72D233C-3B5F-4E47-AAA3-8BC03D344924.thumb.gif.c6882e519ba5e1346550ef07ee1803ed.gif

EPS up top also has more of a linkup between the PNA ridge trying to connect with the NAO. Causes some more amplification in the pattern. GEFS has more separation and impulses flying across Canada...closed circulation of the vortex in central Canads halts the linkup on the GEFS

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45 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nothing can happen until December 16.   I'll be in SC for Thanksgiving, so this isn't happening.  Then Thailand for 3 weeks until the 16th.  I'm sorry guys.  

3 weeks of blizzards while you are gone.  Even Cantore will show up

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10 minutes ago, H2O said:

3 weeks of blizzards while you are gone.  Even Cantore will show up

Don't get banned before the season even starts.

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm shocked you're still allowed to enter SC :ph34r:

That may be a little later.  Trying to get it in now.

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You’ll be back just in time for RELOAD

Now you're talking. 

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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS and GEFS are completely different in how they handle the PV lobe in SE Canada

the EPS is similar to the better runs where it acts as a 50/50, while the GEFS leaves it much farther NW and torches everyone

now we just need to see which is correct! could go either way. this is a very touchy setup

A72D233C-3B5F-4E47-AAA3-8BC03D344924.thumb.gif.c6882e519ba5e1346550ef07ee1803ed.gif

12z GFS looks a bit more like the Euro ones.

500h_anom.nh.png

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Well at least there is some cold air around as we head into December.  Felt like it did not go below freezing until after the New Year last winter…with a little luck the pattern will give many of us some snow by the end of the year.  Could not say that in mid November last year looking into December.

Exactly. Give us a cold air source and an active pattern and let’s roll the dice. I’ll take that over last years warm and painful start any day of the week.


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