Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
 Share

Recommended Posts

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Ensemble mean was definitely weaker and more suppressed. It’s hard to know what we want at this stage since our climo sucks in November, but I think a weaker solution is probably it. 

The only strong storm I'd be good with is one that literally hits rapid deepening at the perfect latitude. Imo, slider or wave type deal hitting right after max cold has pushed south would be the only way without intense anxiety leading in and abject failure leading out lol. I (nobody) needs that right b4 a holiday. 

We've rained in Dec multiple times recently with a perfect track modest low. One that always snows in Jan... I'll never get excited for an amplified storm in Nov unless it's imminent and even then... lol

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only strong storm I'd be good with is one that literally hits rapid deepening at the perfect latitude. Imo, slider or wave type deal hitting right after max cold has pushed south would be the only way without intense anxiety leading in and abject failure leading out lol. I (nobody) needs that right b4 a holiday. 

We've rained in Dec multiple times recently with a perfect track modest low. One that always snows in Jan... I'll never get excited for an amplified storm in Nov unless it's imminent and even then... lol

 

Exactly. Your first scenario could be the magic “storm creates its own cold air” through strong NE flow and heavy precipitation, which helps with crappy climo, but that’s a serious tightrope to walk.  So if we go with more of a slider type storm after cold air has arrived (and preferably at night), maybe we can pull the rabbit?

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only strong storm I'd be good with is one that literally hits rapid deepening at the perfect latitude. Imo, slider or wave type deal hitting right after max cold has pushed south would be the only way without intense anxiety leading in and abject failure leading out lol. I (nobody) needs that right b4 a holiday. 

We've rained in Dec multiple times recently with a perfect track modest low. One that always snows in Jan... I'll never get excited for an amplified storm in Nov unless it's imminent and even then... lol

 

This is where ya wish our climo strike zone was wider than it is, lol We get a good 6-8 weeks to get somethin' to go right!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Only takes a piece of that to eject at the right time to clash with the N Plains energy diving SE. Might not want a big bomb tho, deferring to the pros on that one.

For sure on both counts.

Maybe a bomb helps with the "creating its cold air" thing, but how likely is that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Exactly. Your first scenario could be the magic “storm creates its own cold air” through strong NE flow and heavy precipitation, which helps with crappy climo, but that’s a serious tightrope to walk.  So if we go with more of a slider type storm after cold air has arrived (and preferably at night), maybe we can pull the rabbit?

I've been quietly interested in this period for over a week. We're undecided between rockville or smith mtn for the holiday. I was rooting for warm but kept telling the fam it looks like Dec haha. It does kinda have the break out the parkas and cameras feel... shovels? Sun angle.... Having another property with similar climo totals but different favored setups will increase my odds of fun. I plan on being in VA for every storm unless it's better here 

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is where ya wish our climo strike zone was wider than it is, lol 6-8 weeks to get somethin' to go right!

Nov is a silly month here for snow. It never happens and when it does it usually sucks. Except for 87. Still waiting for a redux. Only been 35 years :tomato:

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I've been quietly interested in this period for over a week. We're undecided between rockville or smith mtn for the holiday. I was rooting for warm but kept telling the fam it looks like Dec haha. It does kinda have the break out the parkas and cameras feel... shovels? Sun angle.... Having another property with similar climo totals but different favored setups will increase my odds of fun. I plan on being in VA for every storm unless it's better here 

Nov is a silly month here for snow. It never happens and when it does it usually sucks. Except for 87. Still waiting for a redux. Only been 35 years :tomato:

Yep, still waiting, and the waiting will likely continue lol. Long hot summer, extended summer, finally Fall. Actually Fall has been outstanding this year. Then we edge closer to winter, and we see these favorable h5 patterns advertised on guidance, and get ahead of ourselves. We do this every year I think, right? It's like.. practice.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yep, still waiting, and the waiting will likely continue lol. Long hot summer, extended summer, finally Fall. Actually Fall has been outstanding this year. Then we edge closer to winter, and we see these favorable h5 patterns advertised on guidance, and get ahead of ourselves. We do this every year I think, right? It's like.. practice.

It’s more like insanity.  One big snow in Nov 87 and now I expect snow in Nov. I’m a terd with hair. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know that you guys are worried about climo, and rightfully so at this time of year, but this is a loaded pattern

you have a stout +PNA, a decaying west based -NAO, an anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave 

37CB4BD3-D4D4-45BF-B483-2B0F67CC7BC6.thumb.png.8513a9cd0612524e5ba5b9162d6459dc.png

this isn’t your typical November setup, so I think it’s worth watching closely even south of the M-D line

  • Like 16
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I know that you guys are worried about climo, and rightfully so at this time of year, but this is a loaded pattern

you have a stout +PNA, a decaying west based -NAO, an anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave 

37CB4BD3-D4D4-45BF-B483-2B0F67CC7BC6.thumb.png.8513a9cd0612524e5ba5b9162d6459dc.png

this isn’t your typical November setup, so I think it’s worth watching closely even south of the M-D line

Have we seen a pattern like this at the end of the last 2 autumns? 

I'm thinking if we're seeing this now, this may repeat at least a few more times throughout this winter.

  • Like 4
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I know that you guys are worried about climo, and rightfully so at this time of year, but this is a loaded pattern

you have a stout +PNA, a decaying west based -NAO, an anomalous 50/50, and a potent shortwave 

37CB4BD3-D4D4-45BF-B483-2B0F67CC7BC6.thumb.png.8513a9cd0612524e5ba5b9162d6459dc.png

this isn’t your typical November setup, so I think it’s worth watching closely even south of the M-D line

There's got to be some good outcomes on the individual members with the mean looking like that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^interesting. +PNA/-NAO/+AO like we have next week. 

Pretty close. The location of +heights in the NAO domain were more ideal for that event- further south and poking into the Davis Strait, with the core of the neg heights underneath further south. That brought the cold push and the boundary further south, which I think is needed this early in the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty close. The location of +heights in the NAO domain were more ideal for that event- further south and poking into the Davis Strait, with the core of the neg heights underneath further south. That brought the cold push and the boundary further south, which I think is needed this early in the season.

At what point do we pay attention to the op runs?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a progressive pattern- there is no true block as advertised. The '50-50 low' is a vortex moving through that region, not a quasi-stationary feature. Timing is critical.

It’s fun to track.  Beats a big red h5 blob over the east which we all know and love.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...