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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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18 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Reminder to folks that we had a nice -NAO last December and we mostly torched. It can’t help us alone, especially outside of peak climo. 

Like 4 years ago when I did that case study of every storm that averaged 5” across the 3 airports I did notice that there were a lot of good Atlantic bad pacific combos in the cohort for February and March and almost none earlier in Winter. Just supporting what you’re saying, it’s a lot easier to overcome a bad pacific later in winter. Early…it’s pretty difficult. We kinda need the pattern upstream to be favorable to have a good shot the first 1/3 of the snow season. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Like 4 years ago when I did that case study of every storm that averaged 5” across the 3 airports I did notice that there were a lot of good Atlantic bad pacific combos in the cohort for February and March and almost none earlier in Winter. Just supporting what you’re saying, it’s a lot easier to overcome a bad pacific later in winter. Early…it’s pretty difficult. We kinda need the pattern upstream to be favorable to have a good shot the first 1/3 of the snow season. 

Yup. What the ensembles are spitting out for next week is pretty dang nice frankly with that +PNA spike and a helpful Atlantic side. EPS made a huge shift from earlier runs at 0z. It’s just…November.

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29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. What the ensembles are spitting out for next week is pretty dang nice frankly with that +PNA spike and a helpful Atlantic side. EPS made a huge shift from earlier runs at 0z. It’s just…November.

I just posted in the winter thread. But the mid December time period looks really nice actually. MJO, NAO and PNA all look tasty for that time period. No guarantee the temps will cooperate. Especially for the coastal plain. But there could be a legit chance during that time period. 

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38 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I just posted in the winter thread. But the mid December time period looks really nice actually. MJO, NAO and PNA all look tasty for that time period. No guarantee the temps will cooperate. Especially for the coastal plain. But there could be a legit chance during that time period. 

This is exactly what we're hoping for in regards to a reload. I know I'm preaching to the choir, but patterns generally stick around for a good period of time, but they will relax here and there. If this pattern is now just beginning, we probably have about through the turn of the new year to cash in, but we have to accept that we won't go wall-to-wall. Pattern relaxes a little around Thanksgiving, then if we reload we get into much less hostile (even if not prime) climo.

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20 hours ago, CAPE said:

It only has like 6 different lows lol. But yeah its a mild rain storm with cold coming in behind verbatim. Has it raining Thanksgiving evening into Friday.

Thanksgiving 2m temps coming in nipsy russell compared to recent runs.  Like that HP trying to wedge. 

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13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

GFS Looks like a move to the Euro for next weekend?

Kinda? There hasn’t been a drop of consistency yet so not worth parsing Op runs yet except for the popcorn value. Just seems like an increasing chance of that cold HP arriving in advance of precip with a big storm somewhere in the eastern conus. 

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Kinda? There hasn’t been a drop of consistency yet so not worth parsing Op runs yet except for the popcorn value. Just seems like an increasing chance of that cold HP arriving in advance of precip with a big storm somewhere in the eastern conus. 

Yeah, I was just comparing to 0z, I just started looking at this today, as Tony Pann is already kinda wolfing on facebook:lol: The cold/high forcing the low underneath looks interesting though if that feature stays

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Kinda? There hasn’t been a drop of consistency yet so not worth parsing Op runs yet except for the popcorn value. Just seems like an increasing chance of that cold HP arriving in advance of precip with a big storm somewhere in the eastern conus. 

SMACK! LOL! For real, us weenies need to keep reality in check. 

The rules apply:

  • Way too early to get excited
  • Climo
  • We need luck which will be hard to see if we have any
  • Climo
  • It is November
  • Models suck and are guidelines
  • Climo

OK - The message is there! 

BUT, I do like the upper level patten .. BUT - Climo! LOL!

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

12z GEFS didn't look as impressive at h5 anomaly as it did at 6z....at least that's the way it looked to me.  

 

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Op GFS looks real amped, but the ensemble mean shows a more positively tilted trough. Might mean a colder and more suppressed solution.

Screen Shot 2022-11-17 at 2.03.37 PM.png

Ensemble mean was definitely weaker and more suppressed. It’s hard to know what we want at this stage since our climo sucks in November, but I think a weaker solution is probably it. 

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FWIW... again, might be more SNE centric, but still 12z EPS:

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The table is set by D7 on the EPS....you can see all the key synoptic features....the 50/50 low producing confluence to our north, the shortwave over the central US, a stout western ridge, and solid -NAO to hold the 50/50 in place longer as the shortwave approaches. All very good to see.

Obviously we need to get this about 2-3 days closer to take it really seriously, but you'd rather have this general look than not right now

 

 

Nov17_12zEPS168.png

 

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