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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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^that extended GFS is closer to the bad scenario I described yesterday. Siberian PV merges with the piece over the eastern Arctic ocean and we’re cutoff from fresh cold air. -NAO there keeps us from torching but that’s not a cold pattern. Modified PAC air rarely is sufficient for snow for us before January. 

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26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^that extended GFS is closer to the bad scenario I described yesterday. Siberian PV merges with the piece over the eastern Arctic ocean and we’re cutoff from fresh cold air. -NAO there keeps us from torching but that’s not a cold pattern. Modified PAC air rarely is sufficient for snow for us before January. 

Lately it's been problematic even in January/February, which is a huge issue since that look there is responsible for some of our biggest snowstorms historically, but as you said it works a lot better later in winter when SST's have cooled more and we can survive pac puke mixed in a bit more.  

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lately it's been problematic even in January/February, which is a huge issue since that look there is responsible for some of our biggest snowstorms historically, but as you said it works a lot better later in winter when SST's have cooled more and we can survive pac puke mixed in a bit more.  

Reminder to folks that we had a nice -NAO last December and we mostly torched. It can’t help us alone, especially outside of peak climo. 

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On pivotal the new GFS ensembles has DC at an inch of snow. Maybe at [mention=1005]CAPE[/mention] can post the individual panels? It has trended more snowy from last night, then again it's over 200 hours out.
853825320_12zgefs.png.af973d8314fa396c547aaef12b909c18.png

Peaked at it and it’s because one member shows a HECS - around 20” for DCA. Minus that all you can see is the potential for something.
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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

^that extended GFS is closer to the bad scenario I described yesterday. Siberian PV merges with the piece over the eastern Arctic ocean and we’re cutoff from fresh cold air. -NAO there keeps us from torching but that’s not a cold pattern. Modified PAC air rarely is sufficient for snow for us before January. 

Yeah as advertised that is just the -NAO keeping us a tad on the cool side at best. If he wants to use an extended tool to WOOF over that period, he could make a better case using the 12z CFS depiction.

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5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Reminder to folks that we had a nice -NAO last December and we mostly torched. It can’t help us alone, especially outside of peak climo. 

Many of us had a lengthy discussion last year and iirc by the end we were in agreement the PAC/Western Canada/Western US is probably more important than just a -NAO. The latter can certainly slow things down and keep systems from completely cutting but without a cold air source due to a crud PAC, a -NAO is 'usually' not going to do it alone. It has happened before and can do so especially as we enter 2nd half winter where those wavelengths between shortwaves shrink.

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Many of us had a lengthy discussion last year and iirc by the end we were in agreement the PAC/Western Canada/Western US is probably more important than just a -NAO. The latter can certainly slow things down and keep systems from completely cutting but without a cold air source due to a crud PAC, a -NAO is 'usually' not going to do it alone. It has happened before and can do so especially as we enter 2nd half winter where those wavelengths between shortwaves shrink.

This was just figured out last year?

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2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

0z Euro gives everyone a solid 2-4 inches of snow Black Friday. 0z Canadian has some ice then rain and 0z GFS gets close to a mixed event. 

The 0z Euro drops a strong clipper down over the amplifying western US ridge with coastal (re)development and snows on us.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPS has a decent signal for a coastal low at this range. The implied initial lack of cold in place is an issue, but with HP over eastern Canada and a 50-50 vortex, the mechanism to feed colder air from the N/NE into a developing coastal low is there. 

1669399200-dSAfsOI9w1c.png

 

1669399200-jlorpIYlOP4.png

1669399200-fU2JpfLMFU0.png

the anticyclonic wave break over Hudson Bay will also force HP into SE Canada, so I'm not worried about a lack thereof

this is a really, really nice look. there would be ample cold air verbatim

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the anticyclonic wave break over Hudson Bay will also force HP into SE Canada, so I'm not worried about a lack thereof

this is a really, really nice look. there would be ample cold air verbatim

Its a nice h5 set up verbatim. We have the HP in place over eastern Canada, and low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes. Some decent cold air in place to our north that can feed into the west side of a low developing along/off the coast. A lot of details within all that, but at this juncture this period looks interesting. Down here climo is issue number one.

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28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

EPS has a decent signal for a coastal low at this range. The implied initial lack of cold in place is an issue, but with HP over eastern Canada and a 50-50 vortex, the mechanism to feed colder air from the N/NE into a developing coastal low is there. 

1669399200-dSAfsOI9w1c.png

 

1669399200-jlorpIYlOP4.png

1669399200-fU2JpfLMFU0.png

I see the op has a shortwave leeside of the developing PNA ridge that breaks off and sinks in the SW eventually deep into Mexico. Is this feature prevalent on the eps as an entirely separate entity also or do the more menacing looks on the eps individual members keep that feature moving along the southern jet where it interacts with the clipper-like energy diving SSE? Just curious what role that may play and if the euro op is up to its bias of hanging SJ energy back and cutting off.

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see the op has a shortwave leeside of the developing PNA ridge that breaks off and sinks in the SW eventually deep into Mexico. Is this feature prevalent on the eps as an entirely separate entity also or do the more menacing looks on the eps individual members keep that feature moving along the southern jet where it interacts with the clipper-like energy diving SSE? Just curious what role that may play and if the euro op is up to its bias of hanging SJ energy back and cutting off.

That piece of energy is there on the EPS. It gets cut off underneath the ridge as it breaks similar to the op. Given the setup it appears that the main piece of energy will originate over the NPAC and drop in overtop the ridge. All sorts of variations among the 50 members and not worth poring over it all at this point.

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