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Fall 2022 Medium-Long Range Discussion


CAPE
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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Could this be the first 'period of interest' for something wintry? Climo is hostile so a longshot for the lowlands, but a pretty interesting look as advertised.

Amplified longwave pattern, anomalous cold already in place for much of the US, with more NS energy dropping in and an eastbound southern disturbance in the central US. GFS op has been giving some digital snow around the 18th in recent runs. Something to keep an eye on mostly for the western highlands.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_38.png

 

It’s possible, not holding my breath. First, the airmass has to be cold enough and climo is not there yet. Second, it would have to thread the needle since we’re not getting any help from the NAO (it’s positive on that map) 

I think we get a cold rain and mix/snow in the mountains

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6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It’s possible, not holding my breath. First, the airmass has to be cold enough and climo is not there yet. Second, it would have to thread the needle since we’re not getting any help from the NAO (it’s positive on that map) 

I think we get a cold rain and mix/snow in the mountains

Lots of caveats(as always), and I mentioned the number one issue right up front. If that EPO ridge is as amped as advertised, there will be wave breaking and TPV bowling balls rotating south, but yes would need some timing, esp with no NAO help to slow the progression. Low chances for frozen corridor points east, should there be a storm.

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59 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lots of caveats(as always), and I mentioned the number one issue right up front. If that EPO ridge is as amped as advertised, there will be wave breaking and TPV bowling balls rotating south, but yes would need some timing, esp with no NAO help to slow the progression. Low chances for frozen corridor points east, should there be a storm.

If such a system were to be relatively weak, a PV lobe could essentially act as a temporary block while also providing colder air. Get on the northern end of the precip and you never know - we could get a couple hours of sloppy flakes and a wet mulch-topper. 

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7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

If such a system were to be relatively weak, a PV lobe could essentially act as a temporary block while also providing colder air. Get on the northern end of the precip and you never know - we could get a couple hours of sloppy flakes and a wet mulch-topper. 

Yeah that's the timing aspect. NS energy dropping in could phase with a wave, it could come in overtop/just out in front and dampen it, suppress it, etc. A vorticity lobe moving off the Canadian Maritimes would act as a 50-50, but without an actual block to the north it would be a transient feature. That's why we love the 2009-10 pattern so much- the ideal synoptic set up with HL blocking plus the active southern stream made timing less critical. Was just a matter of waiting for a healthy wave to come along and track underneath. Maybe we finally get that again next winter.

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21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah that's the timing aspect. NS energy dropping in could phase with a wave, it could come in overtop/just out in front and dampen it, suppress it, etc. A vorticity lobe moving off the Canadian Maritimes would act as a 50-50, but without an actual block to the north it would be a transient feature. That's why we love the 2009-10 pattern so much- the ideal synoptic set up with HL blocking plus the active southern stream made timing less critical. Was just a matter of waiting for a healthy wave to come along and track underneath. Maybe we finally get that again next winter.

So many moving parts, which is always tricky, no matter where you are. Potential is there with that big EPO ridge, but it's more of a fun-to-watch scenario with climo so heavily against us at this point.

Agreed on 2009-2010. It was just too easy. :lol:

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31 minutes ago, mattie g said:

So many moving parts, which is always tricky, no matter where you are. Potential is there with that big EPO ridge, but it's more of a fun-to-watch scenario with climo so heavily against us at this point.

Agreed on 2009-2010. It was just too easy. :lol:

It distorted expectations for some for awhile. Ji still hasn't recovered.

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14 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If it was 2-3 weeks later I’d be getting interested. Alas…

Imagine it happening a month later. A nice cold shot followed relatively soon after by a low running from the Gulf -> Wilmington, NC -> 70 miles east of Norfolk -> just off of Cape Cod.

What a Christmas scene-setter that could be!

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Imagine it happening a month later. A nice cold shot followed relatively soon after by a low running from the Gulf -> Wilmington, NC -> 70 miles east of Norfolk -> just off of Cape Cod.

What a Christmas scene-setter that could be!

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

Hope springs eternal.  Just thinking out loud...been here 18yrs now and I don't think we've ever had a white Christmas.   2009 was close but it was a sloppy foggy mess by Christmas.   We were snowshoe backpacking at the Dolly Sods so it was plenty cold and snowy there but not back here at home in Calvert.  One day...

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS looks interesting around the same time.

GFS gets close but ultimately the second piece of energy drops in too late and kicks out the low to the east, the southern stream also needs to become a bit more amped. Without a -NAO (and it being in November) we are gonna need to thread the needle.

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