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October 2022 OBS/DISC


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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Almost without exception .. winter remembers November 

If the wheels are in motion late month thats fine. The shit winters with shit November’s had a piggy low over AK with no signs of leaving. We don’t have that. We just need to ease the PNA a tad which should happen later in month. 
 

-PNA itself isn’t bad, but in this case we need to ease that, and start a cold press from Canada. 

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47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

A change is gonna come

20221030_195856.jpg

Yeah for sure, near record warmth isn’t going to sustain itself.

I think going forward the board will have two things to pay attention to… first, a change will come because those heights and warmth of the first ten days of November cannot sustain itself.  So we all can probably agree a change from that type of anomalous regime is coming in mid-November.

The second thing is when folks here are thinking of a “change” it’s likely they mean more towards colder than normal and winter.  Changing from stout ridging and near record warmth possibilities, to flatter zonal flow but still a bit above normal in the means is a change, but maybe not the full “change” the forum is looking for, ha.

But yeah, just averaging near normal temps the week of Thanksgiving would be a nice start.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If the wheels are in motion late month thats fine. The shit winters with shit November’s had a piggy low over AK with no signs of leaving. We don’t have that. We just need to ease the PNA a tad which should happen later in month. 
 

-PNA itself isn’t bad, but in this case we need to ease that, and start a cold press from Canada. 

I’ll take a -PNA undercutting a -EPO any day

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

second thing is when folks here are thinking of a “change” it’s likely they mean more towards colder than normal and winter.

This is the standard interpretation lens, regardless.  Even holding it against the author when the interpretation inevitably fails to resemble, when in reality said author was in fact remarkable prescient lol

Simon and Garfunkel “…a man will hear what he needs to hear, and the rest he will throw away”

Ooh just makes you proud to be a member of this species huh

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah for sure, near record warmth isn’t going to sustain itself.

I think going forward the board will have two things to pay attention to… first, a change will come because those heights and warmth of the first ten days of November cannot sustain itself.  So we all can probably agree a change from that type of anomalous regime is coming in mid-November.

The second thing is when folks here are thinking of a “change” it’s likely they mean more towards colder than normal and winter.  Changing from stout ridging and near record warmth possibilities, to flatter zonal flow but still a bit above normal in the means is a change, but maybe not the full “change” the forum is looking for, ha.

But yeah, just averaging near normal temps the week of Thanksgiving would be a nice start.

Change complete by the 25th storms rumors of storms. Patience grasshopper. Change to climo alone is good enoughfor you.. A more natural progression to a conducive winter pattern. Watch those models evolve.

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is the standard interpretation lens, regardless.  Even holding it against the author when the interpretation inevitably fails to resemble, when in reality said author was in fact remarkable prescient lol

Simon and Garfunkel “…a man will hear what he needs to hear, and the rest he will throw away”

Ooh just makes you proud to be a member of this species huh

Ha, right.  I guess I was envisioning the discussions when it’s still mild and the discourse is telling Ginxy nothing changed… but it went from +10 to +2 in the means.  Something definitely changes there… its just not -5 type days.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, right.  I guess I was envisioning the discussions when it’s still mild and the discourse is telling Ginxy nothing changed… but it went from +10 to +2 in the means.  Something definitely changes there… it’s just not -5 type days.

And for what it’s worth … your point is clad. It’s not gonna be 75 to 81 for very long in November 

… at least until 2064

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Just walked through some of the heaviest rain I’ve ever been in. I’m in Panama City Beach, FL. Walked across the street from our condo for dinner. By the time we were done it was coming down like a firehose. We tried waiting it out but finally gave in and walked the 200 yards back to the condo. I don’t know what the rates were but the closest PWS has 2.52” on the day. Luckily the rest of the week is supposed to be nice. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

My final winter grade is a B. That really heavy frost a few days ago gave a solid wintry vibe to the lawn. Sometimes those little whitish gnats that flutter arond in the evening look like flurries too.

Frigging yellow jackets don't want to die despite several below 30 days.

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