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October 2022 OBS/DISC


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I believe there is some sort of negative correlation between October and the winter, while there is a positive correlation between November and winter. But the October snow argument is a myth.

I believe there is some sort of correlation between the fall-months and winter months, however, I think the biggest issue is correlations are trying to be tied into specific variables (temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies) as opposed to pattern structures and evolution. We all get excited when we see specific pattern regimes which have a strong correlation to producing weather events, however, I think sometimes the excited gets too overstated. Re-analysis is extremely helpful in that you can find 10-big events and come up with a pattern correlation, but I think the one thing we are lacking quite a bit in is with "misses". The KU books get into these which is fantastic, but I think outside of this book there really isn't a focus on these. 

You could get a pattern which produced 2 big storms before and we know this because we have the events to do reanalysis on, but how many times has that pattern regime occurred with nothing happening? Perhaps something exists out there but I wish there was a way to measure the # of storms per winter...now you would have to come up with some definitions and set parameters but something like this, IMO could add tremendous value to long-range forecasting and even medium-range forecasting.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I believe there is some sort of negative correlation between October and the winter, while there is a positive correlation between November and winter. But the October snow argument is a myth.

At the long-term Farmington co-op, cold Octobers are only good news if November is also cold.  And while seasons with measurable October snowfall average somewhat AN, the Nov-May totals show essentially no difference.

Sprinkles arrived here about 3:30.   Might add another inch by late tomorrow night but would still be well short of the October average - it's our wettest month at 5.63" (median 5.32") and we're at 3.46" before precip started this afternoon.

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This is a story about self-respect and tradition and honoring long-gone parents; about lover turning against lover, mother against child.

In other words, this being October in New England, this is a story about turning on the heat.

If we were a less swaggery state, Sept. 15 could be considered the legitimate kick-off to the heat season. That’s when landlords are required to make sure their residential properties are at least 68 degrees during the day and at least 64 degrees at night, per the Massachusetts State Sanitary Code.

But to quote every local still rocking shorts and a Dunkin’ iced coffee and vowing to hold off until Nov. 1, “ya, no.”

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/10/17/metro/are-you-true-new-englander-if-your-heat-is-already-answer-is-no/?event=event12

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15 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

lol, I have several that were passed down to me. We have no place to display them and they have been collecting dust for a long time. Some are very old and probably worth some money. Wasn't sure where to go to get them appraised.

Bring them to the gtg in December.  We shall dance, and sing around a blazing fyr, and drinketh to deep white snow, frozen lakes, and good friends. 

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