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October 2022 OBS/DISC


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Could actually end up exceptionally warm next weekend if that surface +PP escaping E can reorient itself for more continental conveyor. 
 

models are doing what they typically do in the spring with an early Ridge signal… They send the sfc high east north east of Boston such that we spend the entire ridge with a chilly stolen East flow

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Just torch. And Stein. Torchenstein.

 

8307C735-17CA-45F6-A95C-2B48E29E2BCE.jpeg

Mmm .. wondering when this either

a … breaks toward a more seasonal warm anomaly

-or-

b … really commits to the more ominously near/at historic anomaly it seems tempted to go toward.  

This two weeks reminds me somewhat of late Oct thru the first 10 days of Nov 2020 … An early meridian flow/cold signal sloshed the other way.  The cold even produced yet another in the growing numbers of Oct snow events nearing Halloween. Week later …historic warmth nearing or exceeding of 80 as late as the 10th … really surpassing the Indian Summer mystique  

It was actually an extraordinary “behaviorally significant series” … unsung do to the Pandemic’s capturing attention.  Do people recall the 2,500 pg thread ? - don’t remind us … yuck.  

So anyway we’re not gonna get a snow event out of the trough side of it this time but we are doing in principle similar kind of large scale sloshing.

Also… wondering if that Euro’s meandering thing astride the EC out there might take on some phase transition ? 

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I have no issues if it gets warm in October whatsoever.  We’ve had a gorgeous autumn so far….actually a gorgeous two months September and October to date.  Some very Cool, and some very mild days..and some warm ones with temps in the mid 70’s, with some very nice autumn chill at night, with frosts and freezes to boot. It’s Been exactly as it should be.  
 

So I’ll take some warm weather as we head into the end of the month and enjoy every bit of it.  I say Bring it and let’s savor it…we’ve got grey and damp stick season coming, so some warmth is ok by me.  
 

Also, the color is just spectacular here this year…a lil earlier than it’s been…perhaps to the cool nights and traditional autumn weather this year has presented us with.  

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I have no issues if it gets warm in October whatsoever.  We’ve had a gorgeous autumn so far….actually a gorgeous two months September and October to date.  Some very Cool, and some very mild days..and some warm ones with temps in the mid 70’s, with some very nice autumn chill at night, with frosts and freezes to boot. It’s Been exactly as it should be.  
 

So I’ll take some warm weather as we head into the end of the month and enjoy every bit of it.  I say Bring it and let’s savor it…we’ve got grey and damp stick season coming, so some warmth is ok by me.  
 

Also, the color is just spectacular here this year…a lil earlier than it’s been…perhaps to the cool nights and traditional autumn weather this year has presented us with.  

TBH, I need October to warm up in the east, and cool off in the west for my analogs to continue looking good.

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47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good get it out of the way now

That's not how that works

 

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I have no issues if it gets warm in October whatsoever.  We’ve had a gorgeous autumn so far….actually a gorgeous two months September and October to date.  Some very Cool, and some very mild days..and some warm ones with temps in the mid 70’s, with some very nice autumn chill at night, with frosts and freezes to boot. It’s Been exactly as it should be.  
 

So I’ll take some warm weather as we head into the end of the month and enjoy every bit of it.  I say Bring it and let’s savor it…we’ve got grey and damp stick season coming, so some warmth is ok by me.  
 

Also, the color is just spectacular here this year…a lil earlier than it’s been…perhaps to the cool nights and traditional autumn weather this year has presented us with.  

If the last few years repeat then expect this warmth to lock in for winter. I highly doubt this will just be some passing mild airmass

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I have no issues if it gets warm in October whatsoever.  We’ve had a gorgeous autumn so far….actually a gorgeous two months September and October to date.  Some very Cool, and some very mild days..and some warm ones with temps in the mid 70’s, with some very nice autumn chill at night, with frosts and freezes to boot. It’s Been exactly as it should be.  
 

So I’ll take some warm weather as we head into the end of the month and enjoy every bit of it.  I say Bring it and let’s savor it…we’ve got grey and damp stick season coming, so some warmth is ok by me.  
 

Also, the color is just spectacular here this year…a lil earlier than it’s been…perhaps to the cool nights and traditional autumn weather this year has presented us with.  

You are getting older. 

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Once November hits I throw in the towel on warmth though… Mostly it’s just knowing that it’s inevitable. I mean you’re going through the solar nadir over those next three months so there’s no use in fighting it lol.  

I like my winters frontloaded… steady diet of unusual cold and sustained, and dappled with surpassing significant snow events from about November 5 through February 5th … Then, equally as “realistic” … it’s 80 to 101 with stratospheric hard on convection towers until the following 3-strike EC ‘cane season.  … totally could happen dude.. 

No but really front loaders are unfortunately rare. 1995 blah blah was king … but there are some other decent ones.  Like those great Decembers back in the aughts, ‘07 and ‘08 and ‘10. There’s probably others going all the way back that at least get you to a C+ grade for early expression. But by in large the heft of all of them suggests we have to wait until after Christmas.  And now with cc mucking around with stuff who knows how that’s going to distribute things 

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