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October 2022 OBS/DISC


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53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice mild ending of the month coming up. 

Might be an understatement, too. But we’ll hold pending how that evolves. 

The signal’s emerging boldly though. I’m sure you’re aware… Some of these recent euro runs, ensembles and operational, began disrupting the resonance between roughly the date line of central pacific through the longitude ~ Chicago … despite the MJO actually moving into phase 6 and trying to get into 7 from those same sources.  

It’s been a bad year for the MJO - man just cannot seem to couple with the atmosphere. 

They also began doing that while the GEFs members have been maintaining a pretty strong positive PNA. So there was a conflict there beginning to emerge – all this is really just the last three or four days of guidance tenor.  

But the signal is more coherent through all sources this morning including the GEFs …beginning to slowly seesaw backward.

You know … it’s almost like the current look with this trough in the east… coming to a nadir sometime between Monday and Thursday of next week ( wouldn’t be ridiculous by the way if we get a chilly rain coastal with elevation blue out of that - I hinted that in a one sentence drive by post the other day…) is being handled like ‘the winter expression before the Indian Summer’ typology.  I mean snow’s a human convention in all that. Philosophically it’s whenever the pattern seesaws from early chill back to summary regime - right? Perhaps it’s getting rather late in the climate change slow moving apocalypse for the early chill signals to actually have snow in them lol  

Seriously tho I take longer range warm signals for some 10 … 20% more weight as a standard approach. Whether it is because of climate change or not … the past 15 years those tend to over perform the majority at global scales. But I’m also on the fence a little bit because there is that other aspect that long lead model images of that nature also tend to be over amplified so you’ve also got conflicting concepts going on there   

interesting. 
 

 

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So it looks like if anything the models were too wet?

I didn’t pay too close attention to this because it didn’t look that extraordinary to me. I mean the deep pinwheel over the great lakes/associated trough is for the time being sort of stationary while trying to send this lead side frontal construct through us… I mean the dynamics and mechanics were what they were but it seem like you weren’t really differentiating the field enough for it to be an extreme event– that’s just sort of a canvas for this. 

Admittedly with shame… I looked at the NAM FOUS once we were inside of 60 hours at ALB/LGA/BOS.  As a quick and dirty technique I’ll just average the triangulum between those points off the gridded QPF. I don’t recall seeing values very much north of 2“.  I mean obviously that is a crude method in today’s era of reasonably accurate meso analysis at less than 40 hours that can expose embedded heavier activity etc

whatever …basically this was a slow moving warm conveyor transporting saturable air under attenuating mid-level mechanics… That synoptic appeal combine with those grid numbers was good enough for me

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t think I’ve had more than two full inner tubes all at once in a long time.

Not the storm total… just having it all in there for the morning pour.  Certainly have been “storm totals” of 2+ but often over a couple empties.

The timing lined up with this one.

Emptied 2.55” and it’s still raining steadily.  Good overflow catch.

8966BA68-E350-4C51-B8B7-5AA6890C16E6.jpeg.5ff077773a9c937295eda38e93792e59.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Base of the ski area automated station just pushed 3.00”.  Moisture train continues.

7A495ACD-2086-490B-A679-A780F64D3715.gif.8d6a1155ba3c798d4618db1337a95bbc.gif

Do you think that might’ve been a little bit of terrain enhanced?

The wind trajectories were sort of SSE pretty much thru the 700 mbar. Maybe not appreciably strong but that was a pretty high pwat air mass being humped over the terrain. Ha Kind of gross but where it humps it dumps

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37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It went wildly poof.

A big red flag for me was the HREF not showing really big 3 and 6 hourly max values. Sure the 24 hours max values were impressive, but 5 inches of rain in 24 hours is more of a river flood than flash flood without antecedent conditions being really primed. We're likely going to hit some 5 inch marks up here, but mostly just over minor flooding.

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you think that might’ve been a little bit of terrain enhanced?

The wind trajectories were sort of SSE pretty much thru the 700 mbar. Maybe not appreciably strong but that was a pretty high pwat air mass being humped over the terrain. Ha Kind of gross but where it humps it dumps

Probably.  If you look at the CoCoRaHS reports, you can see the highest totals are clustered around the mountains.

image.thumb.png.29110248bdd58f497b96290ebf1bc6b2.png

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you think that might’ve been a little bit of terrain enhanced?

The wind trajectories were sort of SSE pretty much thru the 700 mbar. Maybe not appreciably strong but that was a pretty high pwat air mass being humped over the terrain. Ha Kind of gross but where it humps it dumps

Happy Anniversary Typhhon Tip

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you think that might’ve been a little bit of terrain enhanced?

The wind trajectories were sort of SSE pretty much thru the 700 mbar. Maybe not appreciably strong but that was a pretty high pwat air mass being humped over the terrain. Ha Kind of gross but where it humps it dumps

Happy anniversary Typhoon Tip 

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