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31 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Could be the first frost of the season up here Sunday morning 

 

The Euro the has the next  strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA. 


F269DCA9-46E3-4461-9A42-DBB30D972115.thumb.png.66154c2f28de0a0eb068da32f646e9ea.png

207B2175-CB5D-4F6E-864C-36AB1312F96B.thumb.png.8993d3c0c314c2fec0d11ced437991a0.png

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has another strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain as the summer dry pattern continues to relax. So more cooler fall temperatures behind that front. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA.


F269DCA9-46E3-4461-9A42-DBB30D972115.thumb.png.66154c2f28de0a0eb068da32f646e9ea.png

207B2175-CB5D-4F6E-864C-36AB1312F96B.thumb.png.8993d3c0c314c2fec0d11ced437991a0.png

That’s cross polar flow so we’ll definitely be chilling down. Hope we can get that to happen for the winter. 

Likely our first 30s of the season coming for the north shore. Maybe frost if the wind calms down? 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That’s cross polar flow so we’ll definitely be chilling down. Hope we can get that to happen for the winter. 

Likely our first 30s of the season coming for the north shore. Maybe frost if the wind calms down? 

That North Pacific record warm pool is producing classic October El Niño 500 mb pattern instead of a La Niña. 

8DD10611-E898-4A65-BB1C-BBEDA7E51FCF.png.5f433b293aae7c76786cae9f1403fed2.png

 

October El Niño composite

 

242F66E8-053B-4B85-8D42-D1E29E000BBD.gif.d78d1a4f0d0defa65d507183b73ed85e.gif
 

October La Niña composite

 

86428F13-9B8C-4FEA-B4D5-057FDE67CA81.gif.9ccea24aff7eb70305f6414dc2355f2a.gif

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  63degs.(56/70) or +2.

Reached 77 here yesterday.

Today:  72-77, wind w. to nw., m. sunny-clouds late, 52 tomorrow AM.

No rain for a week.      Oct. 14-22 BN temps.

60*(83%RH) here at 7am.      63* at 9am.     65* at 11am.      67* at Noon.       70* at 2pm.       73* at 3pm.      74* at 3:30pm.      76* at 4pm.      Reached 77* at 5pm.       62* at 11pm.

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Not much to add to previous CoCoRahs event post from Thursday. I will say the ensembles had this right for our area...Ian moisture -sfc isobaric pattern impact was big. Just delayed 36 hours from my own prior Sept post anticipation and there wasn't any rain in the METS-Braves series.

The drought monitor posted yesterday was incomplete with event rain, but may not show much change next Thursday since it's essentially pretty dry the Tuesday 12z 10/11 weekly time cutoff.

Added a couple of graphics from OKX proposed changed to frost-freeze. The climo portion should be of value, though this may have posted here in earlier days.

Finally, I am interested in eventual moisture curling northward into the northeast USA from TD13... unsure if it will be 13-14 or possibly a  18-19. EPS is neutral on above-below normal rainfall 10/12-19, certainly wetter than the GEFS-GEPS.  May be worthy of monitoring for later next week or the following week.

Maybe we can enjoy an overall cooler than normal pattern Oct-Nov??? Wouldn't that a good signal for a snowy winter.  Just haven't had that two month combo for years,  as I can recall. 

Screen Shot 2022-10-07 at 7.54.38 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-07 at 7.54.53 AM.png

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78 Thursday down to 50 and on the way to try and match 78 or even 80 before the front (dry) comes through.  Cooler this weekend before a bit of an up/down back and forth bias a bit below normal through mid month when a potential stronger cool down comes through.  Either way shots of reinforcing cool, for a day or two moderating a day then cool again till Oct 15. Looking overall dry again, with next shot of rain coming in about a week with the next front 10/13.  

 you wonder if we didnt get the 6 day rains where we'd be in the next two weeks.

 

 

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Man, seeing the heights dive under NJ elicits a Pavlovian response in me. Over here salivating to see this set up in winter, but absolutely loving the cool start to October (and can appreciate the warmer days today and yesterday for those that want the warmth). 
 

I’d really love to see a flat to mildly BN DJF, if only to prove it can still happen for us. 
 

Read a couple recent climate papers that were rather depressing, would very much love an unexpectedly potent winter season as opposed to “cold shot, torch, cold shot, torch, torch, torch.” Probably asking too much and setting myself up for disappointment, but hope ain’t dead yet in me! 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro the has the next  strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA. 


F269DCA9-46E3-4461-9A42-DBB30D972115.thumb.png.66154c2f28de0a0eb068da32f646e9ea.png

207B2175-CB5D-4F6E-864C-36AB1312F96B.thumb.png.8993d3c0c314c2fec0d11ced437991a0.png

Some places will most likely see snow at the end of this month if this pattern continues .

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Strong cold front coming up for the weekend with 70s today falling to the 30s and 40s by Sunday morning.


8898C293-42BA-4751-B512-45931AEE8CE7.thumb.png.4e97bc7842c41bfd4f07d82f3309fb01.png

D9D20E88-C690-403C-9968-5AECEE60DD4C.thumb.png.0c357e215357ffa9f28691de107b84b5.png

Its way out there but as the current forecasts now, Oct 16 - 18 looks to be potential widespread first frosts/freezes.  Still wonder beyond there towards the 20th if we dont shift a bit warmer.

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1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Record warmth 25 years ago (gulp) in 1997 with highs in the mid to upper 80s., tied some prior record in 1944.  30s in 1958/1904.

Interestingly 1904 was just after the VEI 6 eruption of Santa Maria (definitely big enough for significant climate impacts) and 1958 was after Bezymianny’s VEI 5 (and several smaller events just preceding; just about big enough). 

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Screenshot_20221007-091320_Twitter.jpg

Very much agree.  Hope we can continue some semblance of this into at least part of the winter.  NE Pacific warm pool offers some hope as does warmer water vicinity Greenland.  Both of those would tend to favor more ridging in those areas.  Says nothing about input from MJO etc.  Just hope we are not expending the blocking now only to have little or none during the height of winter.  Impressive pattern with strong ridge over the western U.S. into Alaska.  Cross polar flow!  Could be nice cold outbreak in 7-10 days.

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Yep, it’s beautiful and I’m excited for the further influx of cool, crisp air. My preferred hiking temperatures. Hopefully will make it up state this fall. 
 

Just remembering the major pattern resets between Nov - Dec - Jan - Feb between each month last year. Hoping this is the start of a more entrenched pattern than what we’ve seen lately, but the fact that it came so early is either a good omen for the winter or a bad one IMO (“wasting it” in October). 

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Absolutely perfect.  Why can't every day be like this. 

 Of course yesterday I had to use defroster to get moisture off windshield in morning.   Realized only driver side was clearing and passenger was still foggy.   Passenger side has no heat :facepalm:.  Dual climate systems are stupid.  Dealer wants over $300 lmao.  Bought a $15 actuator, although will be a pain in the butt being its behind the glove compartment.  Definitely need to change it before frosts and snow

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