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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The drought monitor will probably remove every shade next week 

I dunno, while it has been wetter than the past few months it won't even make a dent. I'm under .5 in the last week and down over 12" this year. It only looks green here, dig down 6" and it's dusty dry. 

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8 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I dunno, while it has been wetter than the past few months it won't even make a dent. I'm under .5 in the last week and down over 12" this year. It only looks green here, dig down 6" and it's dusty dry. 

Doesn't take much to fill up the reservoirs.  Sometimes one good event.  Supposedly the real key are winter snows (Summer snows not as much).

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Good to see those 3.00” totals near the South Shore since Sunday. But Central NJ gets another jackpot. Some spots recorded 10.00”+.

 

711AF229-64B4-4413-B01C-2B4040ADC72E.thumb.jpeg.42d3479445dd913074f0950bebd990b9.jpeg

 

NJ-OC-105 
Barnegat Twp 2.6 ESE 
Lat: 39.7553762321453 
Lon: -74.230699170895 
* indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report
Station         NJ-OC-105
Date Precip in.
10/01/2022 1.27
10/02/2022 0.73
10/03/2022 5.90
10/04/2022 2.30
Totals :  10.20 in.

 

Areas in nnj and nyc did better then what the models showed initially. Dry air loss the the fight 

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The first 3 days of October are about 12° cooler than the entire month was last year. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2022 52.5 28
2021 64.4 0
2020 58.1 0
2019 60.4 0
2018 57.4 0
2017 63.8 0
2016 58.9 0
2015 57.2 0
2014 59.3 0
2013 59.6 0
2012 58.8 0
2011 58.1 0
2010 58.3 0
2009 55.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 64.4 0
2 2017 63.8 0
3 2007 63.5 0
4 1971 63.1 0
5 1990 62.4 0
6 1984 62.2 0
7 1949 61.6 0
8 1963 61.2 0
9 1995 61.0 0
- 1947 61.0 0
10 2019 60.4 0
- 1954 60.4 0

Love the data Bluewave, thank you as always. 

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48 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

It was a significant short lived dry spell here, and perhaps one of the most significant for how little rain fell here, and the data backs this up. Reservoirs never got down too low because those areas saw more rain. I don't mind a dry period to even things out. I don't worry too much about a lawn, but many trees here were stressed from the drought. When the trees become stressed, it's clear indication of an intense dry spell.

I was watering the new trees I planted so I know what you mean, but the drought was pretty localized to our area.  I'd like to see how this compares to some of the big droughts we had in the 80s and 90s when there were widespread water shortages.  The one in 99 I referenced earlier was historic, in that there was half an inch or less of rain for multiple months.  It seems like a big tropical system or noreaster is what breaks the pattern; in 1999 it was Floyd right around my birthday./

 

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48 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I dunno, while it has been wetter than the past few months it won't even make a dent. I'm under .5 in the last week and down over 12" this year. It only looks green here, dig down 6" and it's dusty dry. 

Yes there's been a sharp cutoff up by you guys.

Meanwhile the heavy rain has made it all the way back to NEPA.

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big question is how long this cooler October +PNA pattern can last? We haven’t had a colder October since the modoki El Niño in 2009. So it will be interesting to see if the North Pacific warm pool can continue the more Nino-like pattern or the milder La Niña eventually returns. 
 

Newark October temperature departures

2021…..+6.9

2020….+1.5

2019…..+3.8

2018…..+0.8

2017…..+7.2

2016…+2.3

2015….+0.6

2014….+2.7

2013….+3.0

2012…..+2.2

2011……+1.5

2010……+1.9

2009…..-0.8


803552B7-B84E-4E25-8963-90ED3D5D1D5E.thumb.png.32319bb6e3a81b72e4c16f130a98f176.png


 

BE4D7F4F-49B6-454D-A3E1-C2BB24B0E0AE.thumb.png.69cd5f5c473453998ac6fa35c0caef71.png

052B31CF-FAF9-48DF-A4AB-119CD08F7EC8.thumb.png.8752d114feec0952bbe15d3e547ce2cf.png

3BA44D51-593A-4DF4-89A4-C64F240545C6.thumb.png.6faff2a13f020ff0b955edfddce3f0e4.png

Wasn't the tropical season also more reminiscent of an El Nino pattern?

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Good to see those 3.00” totals near the South Shore since Sunday. But Central NJ gets another jackpot. Some spots recorded 10.00”+.

 

711AF229-64B4-4413-B01C-2B4040ADC72E.thumb.jpeg.42d3479445dd913074f0950bebd990b9.jpeg

 

NJ-OC-105 
Barnegat Twp 2.6 ESE 
Lat: 39.7553762321453 
Lon: -74.230699170895 
* indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report
Station         NJ-OC-105
Date Precip in.
10/01/2022 1.27
10/02/2022 0.73
10/03/2022 5.90
10/04/2022 2.30
Totals :  10.20 in.

 

Will they post a final map tomorrow night when the rain ends? I'd really like to see both the final rainfall totals and the highest wind gusts recorded.

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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

34 more hours to go.  About 86 inches of rain here, 4.17 total (so far) since Friday night.  Clouds holding tough, plane ticket to Palm Springs in hand.  Sun pokes through in time for sunset Wed, not so sure anymore.  Mets triple header Thursday? 

 Sunnier , drier and warmer Thu (10/6) and Fri (10/7) before front (looks dry) comes through for the weekend.  Inland / burbs 30s Sat night / Sun night. 

Moderate by Tue (10/11) or Wed (10/12) and remaining overall dry through then. 

We'll see if the PNW Ridge pushes east for the second half of the month for a warmer note.  

I think they'll get the Mets games in today. Radar looks much better now. The steady rain is moving away and it looks as if it will just be occasional showers the rest of today.

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4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

34 more hours to go.  About 86 inches of rain here, 4.17 total (so far) since Friday night.  Clouds holding tough, plane ticket to Palm Springs in hand.  Sun pokes through in time for sunset Wed, not so sure anymore.  Mets triple header Thursday? 

 Sunnier , drier and warmer Thu (10/6) and Fri (10/7) before front (looks dry) comes through for the weekend.  Inland / burbs 30s Sat night / Sun night. 

Moderate by Tue (10/11) or Wed (10/12) and remaining overall dry through then. 

We'll see if the PNW Ridge pushes east for the second half of the month for a warmer note.  

I had to do a doubletake.... 86 inches of rain is a lot.

 

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Some locations in the NYC Metro Region are getting some really soaking rains from the remnants/leftovers of Ian. But if my take is correct, we are still in a drier than normal overall weather pattern while above normal temperature pattern has shifted into a below normal temperature pattern. I don't think this current event necessarily means that the drought is over. Even if a few spots ended up with 3.00" of rain from this, if the next 8 weeks are very dry, we're very close to being back in the drought. We are lucky that we ended up in the right spot with Ian and the same luck is unlikely to happen again though not impossible. Most of the computer guidance having systems accelerating w-nw to e-se across the northern tier of the country with cold fronts one after another dropping down from Canada does not give me confidence in more sizable rain events after this one. We'll see if the tropics have more to say.

WX/PT

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17 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Some locations in the NYC Metro Region are getting some really soaking rains from the remnants/leftovers of Ian. But if my take is correct, we are still in a drier than normal overall weather pattern while above normal temperature pattern has shifted into a below normal temperature pattern. I don't think this current event necessarily means that the drought is over. Even if a few spots ended up with 3.00" of rain from this, if the next 8 weeks are very dry, we're very close to being back in the drought. We are lucky that we ended up in the right spot with Ian and the same luck is unlikely to happen again though not impossible. Most of the computer guidance having systems accelerating w-nw to e-se across the northern tier of the country with cold fronts one after another dropping down from Canada does not give me confidence in more sizable rain events after this one. We'll see if the tropics have more to say.

WX/PT

But Ian turned into Noreaster is exactly the type of storm you'd expect to get in October, so I would say it was more than just luck.

 

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2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Some locations in the NYC Metro Region are getting some really soaking rains from the remnants/leftovers of Ian. But if my take is correct, we are still in a drier than normal overall weather pattern while above normal temperature pattern has shifted into a below normal temperature pattern. I don't think this current event necessarily means that the drought is over. Even if a few spots ended up with 3.00" of rain from this, if the next 8 weeks are very dry, we're very close to being back in the drought. We are lucky that we ended up in the right spot with Ian and the same luck is unlikely to happen again though not impossible. Most of the computer guidance having systems accelerating w-nw to e-se across the northern tier of the country with cold fronts one after another dropping down from Canada does not give me confidence in more sizable rain events after this one. We'll see if the tropics have more to say.

WX/PT

Yeah I agree, an El Nino pattern with an active southern jet this is not. 

I'd be willing to bet the default Nina state will also try to come back. 

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1.38” current storm total. Winds have relaxed a bit so it feels mildly less terrible than it has felt for the last 4 days, sky brightening up at times but never fully clearing out.

Currently 56 (and slowly rising) which is the high for the day.

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