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4 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Of course. Theres also a big difference in every day weather between manhattan college parkway and beach 35th street. But that doesnt change definitions. If people are discussing the city and urban NE nj, say that. Im closer to central park than all of suffolk county. 

Suffolk is not in the "metro" for weather purposes. When you read an AFD by Upton there is usually a distinction between the NYC Metro, NW and LI.

Geographically/politically, the entire area is the NYC metro.

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Despite partly sunny skies, readings were largely confined to the 50s in much of the region. Tomorrow will be another chilly day following a frosty start in many suburban areas with temperatures again peaking in the 50s. Moderation is possible during the weekend. There will be a risk of precipitation.

Chicago could see the mercury reach 32° for the first time this season tomorrow morning. Last year, Chicago's first freeze occurred on November 2. The last freeze at least as early as the one that is forecast occurred on October 13, 2018.

Afterward, with the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to go positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +16.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.403 today.

On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.452 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.6° (1.5° below normal).

 

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I should probably know this, but is there somewhere that captures when a first frost and freeze actually occurred for towns/counties in our area?  Tons of websites out there listing average first frosts and freezes, but havent seen what I'm asking about.  Based on the NWS map, I would assume Sussex/Warren and the Poconos have already had their first freezes, since they're not included in the freeze warnings (they don't get issued after the first freeze, which marks the end of the growing season; not sure if frost advisories get reissued after the first frost and before the first freeze, though).  TIA.  

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17 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Yup. Cold right now is really just using heating oil unnecessarily and killing the last fresh veggies out of the garden. I'd be fine with it if it didn't get much below 40 until it's about to snow. 

Thats the good part about being on the south shore- extended growing seasons.

We've only had October freezes a couple of times in the entire time I've been here.

 

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8 hours ago, RU848789 said:

I should probably know this, but is there somewhere that captures when a first frost and freeze actually occurred for towns/counties in our area?  Tons of websites out there listing average first frosts and freezes, but havent seen what I'm asking about.  Based on the NWS map, I would assume Sussex/Warren and the Poconos have already had their first freezes, since they're not included in the freeze warnings (they don't get issued after the first freeze, which marks the end of the growing season; not sure if frost advisories get reissued after the first frost and before the first freeze, though).  TIA.  

It's already been in the 20s in my other house in the Poconos.

It feels like December over there lol.

 

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18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

orange and darker is immediate imo

924o1ygea9a21.jpg?width=993&auto=webp&s=28fa3f54da5b7b65668111770a8834ebae7d9f0f

Forky, can I get a link for this-- I want to check out what it is for my other home in the Poconos and transpose it atop a light pollution map.  Obviously the higher the population density the higher the levels of light and air pollution.

I need to find an air pollution map of the country too.

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 56°

Tomorrow will be another cool day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 63.3°; 15-Year: 64.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 64.8°; 15-Year: 65.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.0°; 15-Year: 66.6°

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The next 8 days are averaging  57degs.(51/64) or +1.

Month to date is  57.5[-2.7].        Should be  57.3[-1.6] by the 27th.        

Reached 60 here yesterday.

Today:  50-54, wind w.-breezy, variable clouds, 46 tomorrow AM.

44*(69%RH) here at 7am.      47* at 9am.       50* at Noon.      53* at 1pm.      55* at 3pm.      Reached 56* at 5pm.       52* at 7pm.

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Down to 32 here last night and on the way to 56 or so.  Gradual warm up starts Thu (10/20) with a much warmer Fri / Sat (10/22) where some areas will touch 70.  Ridge in the east but undercut by low backing into the Northeast by Sunday night with clouds Sunday and some showers / rain Mon (10/24) and Tue (10/25).  If we clear Wed (10/26) another shot at 70s before a brief cool down in the Thu (10/27) .  Looks warm to end the month in time for Halloween with te next front coming in around the start of the month.

 

 

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