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The sun returned and today wound up becoming a mild autumn day. The mild weather will continue through the weekend. However, much cooler air will likely move into the region early next week.

Out West, it was a tale of two seasons. At Portland, the temperature soared to 82°, which tied the daily mark set in 1991. It was also Portland's 10th 80° day this month, easily surpassing the old record of 6 days. At Minneapolis, a daily record 0.4" of snow fell. The last daily measurable snowfall prior to October 15th occurred on October 14, 2018 when 0.3" fell.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +23.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.533 today.

On October 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.684 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.626 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.0° (1.9° below normal).

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weather should stay warm though. Looks pretty mild after a 3-4 day cool down next week. 

Mostly 60s and even a few 70s...indian summer galore. This weekend also looks fantastic 

Agree.  Great golfing weather.  Although I lost about 15 yards going from hot and humid to cooler and dry

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This was the 9th coldest first 2 weeks of October at Newark with more cold to come this week.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 14
Missing Count
1 1935-10-14 52.4 0
2 1945-10-14 53.5 0
3 1987-10-14 53.7 0
4 1965-10-14 54.1 0
5 1988-10-14 54.4 0
- 1981-10-14 54.4 0
6 1996-10-14 54.6 0
7 1964-10-14 54.9 0
- 1934-10-14 54.9 0
8 1977-10-14 55.1 0
9 2022-10-14 55.2 0


 

3A74D6F2-2036-4AB4-9140-DAD04C25ABAF.thumb.png.970832f68f5d4fd2c1d1a6ba6601a198.png

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2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

My problem is the leaves falling when your ball ends up in the woods it’s a lot harder to find

Leaves are the worst.  Hit a nice ball down the fairway, or even just off the fairway is very hard to find.  But the woods are a magnet for the ball:lol:

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The next 8 days are averaging  57degs.(50/64) or Normal.          The 8 days after this are averaging  62degs.(55/67) or +8.

Month to date is  57.7[-3.3].        Should be  57.4[-2.1] by the 23rd.         Maybe  AN by the 30th.----after a head start of  45 negative degrees with those first 5 days.

1665813600-OA1krwRrqHk.png

Reached 70 here yesterday.

Today:  65-69, wind w. to s., m. sunny, 55 tomorrow AM.

54*(74%RH) here at 7am.       56* at 8am.      58* at 9am.     60* at 10am.       62* at Noon.        65* at 2pm.      Reached 66* at 4pm.        63* at 6pm.

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 72°

Philadelphia: 74°

Much cooler air will move into the region early next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 64.7°; 15-Year: 65.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 66.3°; 15-Year: 67.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.5°; 15-Year: 68.3°

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Temperatures soared into the upper 60s and lower 70s today. The mild weather will continue through the weekend. However, much cooler air will likely move into the region early next week.

Out West, the temperature smashed record highs in the Pacific Northwest. Records included:

Astoria, OR: 83° (old record: 78°, 1954) *** latest 80° high on record***
Portland: 87° (old record: 80°, 1991 and 2015)
Salem, OR: 92° (old record: 89°, 1901) ***latest 90° high on record***

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month. A cooler than normal October is the base case. October 2022 is well on track for a colder than normal outcome. For example, 26/29 (89.7%) cases that saw October 1-10 wind up with a mean temperature of 56.5° or below in New York City, had a monthly mean temperature below the current normal average of 57.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +24.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.086 today.

On October 13 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.845 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.689 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (1.8° below normal).

 

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the 9th coldest first 2 weeks of October at Newark with more cold to come this week.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 14
Missing Count
1 1935-10-14 52.4 0
2 1945-10-14 53.5 0
3 1987-10-14 53.7 0
4 1965-10-14 54.1 0
5 1988-10-14 54.4 0
- 1981-10-14 54.4 0
6 1996-10-14 54.6 0
7 1964-10-14 54.9 0
- 1934-10-14 54.9 0
8 1977-10-14 55.1 0
9 2022-10-14 55.2 0


 

3A74D6F2-2036-4AB4-9140-DAD04C25ABAF.thumb.png.970832f68f5d4fd2c1d1a6ba6601a198.png

1977-78 was the only snowy winter in that list

 

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On 10/14/2022 at 5:46 PM, MANDA said:

Why is that?  Did they pass the bill to keep DST all year round?  Have not heard much about it since it was proposed.

That 8:17 sunrise does not sound appealing.

There is a huge positive to this which most are ignoring.

The time change has been blamed on a rise in car accidents, heart attacks and other issues so having one set time is the right way to go.

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 67°

Newark: 68°

Philadelphia: 70°

Much cooler air will move into the region by Tuesday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 64.4°; 15-Year: 65.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 65.9°; 15-Year: 67.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.1°; 15-Year: 67.9°

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The next 8 days are averaging  57degs.(50/64) or Normal.

Month to date is  57.0[-3.0].        Should be 57.7[-2.0] by the 24th.       The last 8 days of the month are averaging  59degs.(52/66) or +5.      Could get us close to Normal for the month as a whole.

Reached 66 here yesterday.   

Today:  66-70, wind w., variable clouds, 58 tomorrow AM.

55*(90%RH) here at 7am.      58* at 9am.      61* at 10am.      62* at Noon.      63* at 1pm.      65* at 3pm.      Reached 70* at 5pm.        65* at 6pm.

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Year round DST was bound to happen, over the past few decades the amount of time we had Standard Time has been getting shorter and shorter.

The writing was on the wall.

 

The areas which will hate this the most are the western edges of the timezones.  Columbus, Ohio, for example, will have roughly an *8:50AM* sunrise for most of December/January.  Are there studies which really show that pretending it is later than it is all year will have a statistically significant effect on energy usage?  Does that outweigh the side effects, such as the legitimate concern that all the kids will be going to school in the dark - the concern that largely squashed this years ago?

On a non-scientific note, if this happens, I'll miss the early sunsets in the fall/winter.  It was always a sign that snow/holidays/family season was upon us.  Plus the Christmas lights can be on as early as 4PM and be noticeable.

Ramble over.

 

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

The areas which will hate this the most are the western edges of the timezones.  Columbus, Ohio, for example, will have roughly an *8:50AM* sunrise for most of December/January.  Are there studies which really show that pretending it is later than it is all year will have a statistically significant effect on energy usage?  Does that outweigh the side effects, such as the legitimate concern that all the kids will be going to school in the dark - the concern that largely squashed this years ago?

On a non-scientific note, if this happens, I'll miss the early sunsets in the fall/winter.  It was always a sign that snow/holidays/family season was upon us.  Plus the Christmas lights can be on as early as 4PM and be noticeable.

Ramble over.

 

 

 

 

It would have been better if we were on Standard time all year.  In our 24 hr society, I don't believe those old studies about energy usage apply anymore.  On top of that besides what you cited about children going to school in the dark, the other problem that goes away by keeping Standard time all year long is the health impact of switching back and forth between the two.

 

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Year round DST was bound to happen, over the past few decades the amount of time we had Standard Time has been getting shorter and shorter.

The writing was on the wall.

 

As far as I know there are no prospects to push this bill forward. 

And if anything were to happen it wouldn't go into effect until 2024

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