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A cold front is now crossing the region. As a result, another cool weekend lies ahead. All said, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period.

Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development has increased the probability of a cooler outcome this month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +20.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.948 today.

On October 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.685 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.683 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (1.8° below normal).

 

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17 hours ago, MANDA said:

Very much agree.  Hope we can continue some semblance of this into at least part of the winter.  NE Pacific warm pool offers some hope as does warmer water vicinity Greenland.  Both of those would tend to favor more ridging in those areas.  Says nothing about input from MJO etc.  Just hope we are not expending the blocking now only to have little or none during the height of winter.  Impressive pattern with strong ridge over the western U.S. into Alaska.  Cross polar flow!  Could be nice cold outbreak in 7-10 days.

If this follows the typical pattern of the last few years, we'll get some early season cold shots followed by a big thaw in the middle, followed by more cold and chances for snow towards the end of winter.

 

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20 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Record warmth 25 years ago (gulp) in 1997 with highs in the mid to upper 80s., tied some prior record in 1944.  30s in 1958/1904.

That wasn't just some prior record in 1944.

1944 had a much celebrated 11 year pattern summer that was the hottest summer on record back then and far ahead of its time.

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From 81 to 45 yesterday.  In what will likely be the last 80s till March or so.  70s may not be far behind.  Possible first or second 30s for inland areas. Game time temp in Flushing looks to be 50 and falling into the 40s.   

Looking mainly dry through Wed (10/12) with a brief warmup Columbus Day (10/10) and Tue (10/11) back near 70. 

Strong front comes through and possible low on Thu (10/13) / Fri (10/15).  Deep trough moves into the east by next weekend and overall cool / first frost /freezes look possible widespread by 10/17.  Beyond there we'll see if the wester ridge is shoved out and we warm up the final week of the month.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°

Newark: 61°

Philadelphia: 62°

The cool weather will continue through Monday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 67.4°; 15-Year: 68.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 70.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.3°; 15-Year: 71.3°

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51 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

From 81 to 45 yesterday.  In what will likely be the last 80s till March or so.  70s may not be far behind.  Possible first or second 30s for inland areas. Game time temp in Flushing looks to be 50 and falling into the 40s.   

Looking mainly dry through Wed (10/12) with a brief warmup Columbus Day (10/10) and Tue (10/11) back near 70. 

Strong front comes through and possible low on Thu (10/13) / Fri (10/15).  Deep trough moves into the east by next weekend and overall cool / first frost /freezes look possible widespread by 10/17.  Beyond there we'll see if the wester ridge is shoved out and we warm up the final week of the month.

I don't know if it will be our last 80 degree temperature but the last 80 degrees at Newark and Central Park was on September 21.  That seems to be a little early for a last 80 degrees, especially considering how it has been in recent years.

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4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I don't know if it will be our last 80 degree temperature but the last 80 degrees at Newark and Central Park was on September 21.  That seems to be a little early for a last 80 degrees, especially considering how it has been in recent years.

Nothing on the horizon but we can get a sneaky warm day like yesterday. 70 is never off the table even in December and January 

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The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(53/69) or +1.

Reached 77* here again, yesterday.

Today:  58-62, wind nw., m. sunny, 49 tomorrow AM.

No  Rain till Thurs/Fri, meanwhile one or more 70's is possible.

Draw a vertical line up along 74W and Oct. 11-13 look AN:

1665187200-dnlBiPERb0E.png

 

51*(62%RH) here at 7am.     50* at 8am.     54* at 10am.     55* at Noon.     57* at 1pm.      60* at 3pm.      Reached 62* at 5pm.      54* at 10pm.

 

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