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Finished with 2.95" here.  Updated maps show six day event totals.  Included New England if only to show how poorly models (at least initially) modeled the northern extent of .5-1" QPF.  High pressure and dry air lost the battle for sure.  Initially all the guidance was for the 1" line to just  about maybe make it to the L.I. south shore.  It eventually made it way beyond.  I'd add that the tracks of the mid and upper level low and surface feature would have made for an epic snow dump if this had occurred in late December, Jan or Feb.  Tracks were text book classic.  Coastal sections likely would have gone to mix or rain just because of the winds being constantly onshore and wind direction going from NNE to more easterly near the end of the event but overall if would have been a blockbuster snow event especially inland.  Mid and upper low tracks were exactly what you look for.

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54 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

My weather station back home picked up about 1.72”, did the south shore get relatively shafted again?

Assuming Lindenhurst? Sounds too low. Jfk and Islip were both over 3 inches. I’m in Seaford at 3.65 on my weatherflow.  I checked a couple weatherflows in your area and they are both over 3 inches. I know they use haptic rain sensors but when they are all pretty close in measurement, I think you can say it’s accurate. 

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38 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Finished with 2.95" here.  Updated maps show six day event totals.  Included New England if only to show how poorly models (at least initially) modeled the northern extent of .5-1" QPF.  High pressure and dry air lost the battle for sure.  Initially all the guidance was for the 1" line to just  about maybe make it to the L.I. south shore.  It eventually made it way beyond.  I'd add that the tracks of the mid and upper level low and surface feature would have made for an epic snow dump if this had occurred in late December, Jan or Feb.  Tracks were text book classic.  Coastal sections likely would have gone to mix or rain just because of the winds being constantly onshore and wind direction going from NNE to more easterly near the end of the event but overall if would have been a blockbuster snow event especially inland.  Mid and upper low tracks were exactly what you look for.

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Very nice event. But if this was winter the coast would’ve gone to rain. The low was cut off for so long it occluded and milder air, enough for rain would’ve wrapped in from the ocean after long enough. 

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27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

FB_IMG_1665065033096.jpg

Full effects of the recent rainfall will not be fully reflected in the Drought Monitor until next Thursday issuance.  Data cutoff for this map was 8am this past Tuesday.  As a result the Tuesday and Wednesday rainfall was not factored in.  I would expect most of this forum to just be Abnormally Dry or no classification in the next Thursday release.  Expecting the Moderate Drought and Severe Drought areas will be eliminated.  South shore L.I. could hang on as Moderate?

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Very nice event. But if this was winter the coast would’ve gone to rain. The low was cut off for so long it occluded and milder air, enough for rain would’ve wrapped in from the ocean after long enough. 

Yep-Tuesday night the temps went up about 5-6 degrees and the air felt more marine in nature for sure.

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2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Assuming Lindenhurst? Sounds too low. Jfk and Islip were both over 3 inches. I’m in Seaford at 3.65 on my weatherflow.  I checked a couple weatherflows in your area and they are both over 3 inches. I know they use haptic rain sensors but when they are all pretty close in measurement, I think you can say it’s accurate. 

Alright thanks, it must be an issue with the sensor or something

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

I believe the rain reports are a total since Saturday when the event began. I picked up 3.72 since Saturday. Maybe you are just looking at one of the days.

Accounting for all the days, I’m still at 2.36” maybe some leaves are blocking the rain gauge or something, I’ve had that issue happen before. I have fall break this weekend so I’ll have to check when I’m back home

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3 hours ago, FPizz said:

For sure, but it will have to be on pavement as the ground is still mush.

Yeah I went for a run on the pavement today. I'm planning on doing some hiking tomorrow, so hopefully the ground won't be as mushy after all the sunshine.

Made it to 77 here today, and we should hit about that again tomorrow. I love warm weather in october.

 

 

 

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Under mainly sunny skies, the temperature rebounded into the lower and middle 70s across the region. Tomorrow will be another warm day. However, the warmth will be short-lived.

A cold front will cross the region, ushering in another cool weekend. All said, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period.

Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development increases the probability of a cooler outcome this month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +25.46 today. The old daily record was +19.72, which was set in 2017.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.464 today.

On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.685 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.855 (RMM).

 

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