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11 minutes ago, scootmandu said:

Was about to post from my PC when a bolt of nearby lightning temporarily knocked out power. Safer to post from my phone. I had been watching the lightning approach for over an hour. Still more storms to our east, heading west. The weather bug app lightning map feature showed a large cluster of lightning strikes clustered around us. 1 was virtually on top of us. Yet none of the weather apps (Dark Sky, Weather Underground, etc..) were predicting even that rain was imminent. The biggest strikes here were about 10 minutes before this radar screenshot. Still hear rumbles of thunder.

Total so far: 0.59 for the day, 1.66 total. Current rate 0.17

image.thumb.jpeg.99888cb517e434cbaec05bfd63a6a49a.jpeg

Are you able to get a news media app that will tell you that it will rain or snow or thunder in X minutes and that it will last for () minutes?  I get that from the NBC station in Philadelphia and it is a great feature.

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Very rare to see thunderstorms rolling in from east. I think I have ever seen this before other than in a hurricane/tropical system. But definitely not since I’ve lived here for the past 8 years

Last time if I recall was with feeder bands from henri that moved in from the east. That was the night we got got flooded from that monster band 

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Are you able to get a news media app that will tell you that it will rain or snow or thunder in X minutes and that it will last for () minutes?  I get that from the NBC station in Philadelphia and it is a great feature.

Dark Sky usually specifically does that and Weather Underground shows hour by hour totals (as do a few others). When I first saw the storms on radar it seemed pretty clear they were coming our way an hour before. But the apps I was looking at showed no imminent rain from them. Thanks for the info, though.

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Drought destroyer for Much of the area. Models didn’t handle the dry air and precipitation well with this. 

No clue what my totals are, but it’s been nonstop here 

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A brief period of warmer readings will develop tomorrow and continue through Friday before another strong cold front crosses the region on Friday. All said, the first 10 days of October are on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period.

Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development raises the probability of a cooler exception this month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +37.19 today. The old daily record was +27.39, which was set in 1999.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.570 today.

On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.852 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.932 (RMM).

 

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16 hours ago, MANDA said:

Event total 2.78" over last 5 days.  Entire forum received much needed rain.  Coastal NJ did best with widespread 3-6" of rainfall.  Some local amounts there 5-8" with even some local 10"+ amounts.  Drought Monitor maps should be pretty much completely erased if not by tomorrow then by next Thursday issuance.

1.jpg

2.jpg

We actually had some of heaviest rains after this map was issued.  Long duration strong thunderstorms after 4 PM with some very heavy downpours.

The sky has finally cleared and I can see the moon shining over my garden-- the day will be glorious and temps in the mid 70s for the next two days!

 

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16 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like 4-5" amounts here which won't completely wipe out the deficit but it's pretty close. 

Rare to see 5" amounts at both my houses lol.  Reminds me of the Jan 2016 super snowstorm where I got over 30 inches of snow at both.  It's actually closer to 6" at both places now with the heavy downpours I got at both places.

 

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9 hours ago, scootmandu said:

Was about to post from my PC when a bolt of nearby lightning temporarily knocked out power. Safer to post from my phone. I had been watching the lightning approach for over an hour. Still more storms to our east, heading west. The weather bug app lightning map feature showed a large cluster of lightning strikes clustered around us. 1 was virtually on top of us. Yet none of the weather apps (Dark Sky, Weather Underground, etc..) were predicting even that rain was imminent. The biggest strikes here were about 10 minutes before this radar screenshot. Still hear rumbles of thunder.

Total so far: 0.59 for the day, 1.66 total. Current rate 0.17

image.thumb.jpeg.99888cb517e434cbaec05bfd63a6a49a.jpeg

That dark red thunderstorm that hit here from about 4 PM to 5 PM was a sight to behold.  We usually get something like that when a storm is about to leave the area so it was fun to see (as long as you know it's the storm's last hurrah lol.)  Also the limited sunlight we had earlier in the day made me think we might create enough instability to get these in the late afternoon.

 

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7 hours ago, scootmandu said:

Dark Sky usually specifically does that and Weather Underground shows hour by hour totals (as do a few others). When I first saw the storms on radar it seemed pretty clear they were coming our way an hour before. But the apps I was looking at showed no imminent rain from them. Thanks for the info, though.

Do these work on a PC or do you need to have a phone to be able to use them?

 

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1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

Between the 2" on Tuesday and 1" in change today, that makes for a pretty solid 3" event.

I think it's even more impressive that tomorrow will be a week since I've seen sunshine.  Grass looking great though for this time of year, just needs a rake/cut.

Not seeing sun isn't a good thing though, SAD hitting early this fall.

 

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This was the 5th coldest first 5 days of October at Newark coming in at -9 and 53.5°.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 5
Missing Count
1 1974-10-05 51.5 0
2 2003-10-05 52.3 0
3 1945-10-05 52.5 0
4 1935-10-05 53.0 0
5 2022-10-05 53.5 0
- 1938-10-05 53.5 0
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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the lower and perhaps middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 74°

Philadelphia: 75°

Tomorrow will turn warmer.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 68.2°; 15-Year: 69.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 71.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.2°

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the 5th coldest first 5 days of October at Newark coming in at -9 and 53.5°.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 5
Missing Count
1 1974-10-05 51.5 0
2 2003-10-05 52.3 0
3 1945-10-05 52.5 0
4 1935-10-05 53.0 0
5 2022-10-05 53.5 0
- 1938-10-05 53.5 0

Interesting that outside of 2003, all of those are from around 50 years ago or more.  Surprised that 1976 isn't on this list.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging. 62degs.(54/70) or +1.

Reached 61 here yesterday.

Today:  69-74, wind w., m. sunny-late clouds, 62 tomorrow AM.

56*(84%RH) here at 7am.    58* at 8am.     60* at 9am.    63* at 10am.      66* at Noon.      74* at 4pm.      Reached 77* at 5:30pm.      70* at 7pm.        68* at 8pm.       65* at 10pm.

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