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The big question is how long this cooler October +PNA pattern can last? We haven’t had a colder October since the modoki El Niño in 2009. So it will be interesting to see if the North Pacific warm pool can continue the more Nino-like pattern or the milder La Niña eventually returns. 
 

Newark October temperature departures

2021…..+6.9

2020….+1.5

2019…..+3.8

2018…..+0.8

2017…..+7.2

2016…+2.3

2015….+0.6

2014….+2.7

2013….+3.0

2012…..+2.2

2011……+1.5

2010……+1.9

2009…..-0.8


803552B7-B84E-4E25-8963-90ED3D5D1D5E.thumb.png.32319bb6e3a81b72e4c16f130a98f176.png


 

BE4D7F4F-49B6-454D-A3E1-C2BB24B0E0AE.thumb.png.69cd5f5c473453998ac6fa35c0caef71.png

052B31CF-FAF9-48DF-A4AB-119CD08F7EC8.thumb.png.8752d114feec0952bbe15d3e547ce2cf.png

3BA44D51-593A-4DF4-89A4-C64F240545C6.thumb.png.6faff2a13f020ff0b955edfddce3f0e4.png

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14 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We used to get these cool October days years ago but lately its been in the 80s and 90s with record warm Octobers 

The cool stretch is even more notable given how dry/hot the summer has been.

But it's more of an anomalous cool pocket in an otherwise warm regime.  

The moment the calendar turned to fall, so did the weather. We've gotten so accustomed to September and October being an extension of summer that this cooler weather feels....odd, almost the way it should be in early fall. I didn't start wearing a pullover or jacket until late October last year, it was late September this year.

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34 more hours to go.  About 86 inches of rain here, 4.17 total (so far) since Friday night.  Clouds holding tough, plane ticket to Palm Springs in hand.  Sun pokes through in time for sunset Wed, not so sure anymore.  Mets triple header Thursday? 

 Sunnier , drier and warmer Thu (10/6) and Fri (10/7) before front (looks dry) comes through for the weekend.  Inland / burbs 30s Sat night / Sun night. 

Moderate by Tue (10/11) or Wed (10/12) and remaining overall dry through then. 

We'll see if the PNW Ridge pushes east for the second half of the month for a warmer note.  

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Good to see those 3.00” totals near the South Shore since Sunday. But Central NJ gets another jackpot. Some spots recorded 10.00”+.

 

711AF229-64B4-4413-B01C-2B4040ADC72E.thumb.jpeg.42d3479445dd913074f0950bebd990b9.jpeg

 

NJ-OC-105 
Barnegat Twp 2.6 ESE 
Lat: 39.7553762321453 
Lon: -74.230699170895 
* indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report
Station         NJ-OC-105
Date Precip in.
10/01/2022 1.27
10/02/2022 0.73
10/03/2022 5.90
10/04/2022 2.30
Totals :  10.20 in.

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Good to see those 3.00” totals near the South Shore since Sunday. But Central NJ gets another jackpot. Some spots recorded 10.00”+.

 

711AF229-64B4-4413-B01C-2B4040ADC72E.thumb.jpeg.42d3479445dd913074f0950bebd990b9.jpeg

 

NJ-OC-105 
Barnegat Twp 2.6 ESE 
Lat: 39.7553762321453 
Lon: -74.230699170895 
* indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report
Station         NJ-OC-105
Date Precip in.
10/01/2022 1.27
10/02/2022 0.73
10/03/2022 5.90
10/04/2022 2.30
Totals :  10.20 in.

 

 

Thanks for sharing.  Closing in on 5 here. 

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The next 8 days are averaging  59degs.(51/68) or about -3.

Reached 52 here yesterday.

Today:   54-58, wind ne.-breezy, cloudy, Rain All Day., 55 tomorrow AM.

EURO still has 4" more starting last night to Wed. PM.,  other models are about 1".

46*(99%RH)-rain at 7am.      48* at 9am.       52* at Noon.      55*at 4pm.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big question is how long this cooler October +PNA pattern can last? We haven’t had a colder October since the modoki El Niño in 2009. So it will be interesting to see if the North Pacific warm pool can continue the more Nino-like pattern or the milder La Niña eventually returns. 
 

Newark October temperature departures

2021…..+6.9

2020….+1.5

2019…..+3.8

2018…..+0.8

2017…..+7.2

2016…+2.3

2015….+0.6

2014….+2.7

2013….+3.0

2012…..+2.2

2011……+1.5

2010……+1.9

2009…..-0.8


803552B7-B84E-4E25-8963-90ED3D5D1D5E.thumb.png.32319bb6e3a81b72e4c16f130a98f176.png


 

BE4D7F4F-49B6-454D-A3E1-C2BB24B0E0AE.thumb.png.69cd5f5c473453998ac6fa35c0caef71.png

052B31CF-FAF9-48DF-A4AB-119CD08F7EC8.thumb.png.8752d114feec0952bbe15d3e547ce2cf.png

3BA44D51-593A-4DF4-89A4-C64F240545C6.thumb.png.6faff2a13f020ff0b955edfddce3f0e4.png

+6.9, +7.2… oof! Yeah I distinctly remember wearing shorts through most Octobers the past ten years, makes sense lol. 
 

I do hope we’re not wasting our shot at +PNA this season, but I’m fully expecting and interesting winter regardless. Hopefully it’s memorable for the right reasons!

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13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

+6.9, +7.2… oof! Yeah I distinctly remember wearing shorts through most Octobers the past ten years, makes sense lol. 
 

I do hope we’re not wasting our shot at +PNA this season, but I’m fully expecting and interesting winter regardless. Hopefully it’s memorable for the right reasons!

The first 3 days of October are about 12° cooler than the entire month was last year. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2022 52.5 28
2021 64.4 0
2020 58.1 0
2019 60.4 0
2018 57.4 0
2017 63.8 0
2016 58.9 0
2015 57.2 0
2014 59.3 0
2013 59.6 0
2012 58.8 0
2011 58.1 0
2010 58.3 0
2009 55.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 64.4 0
2 2017 63.8 0
3 2007 63.5 0
4 1971 63.1 0
5 1990 62.4 0
6 1984 62.2 0
7 1949 61.6 0
8 1963 61.2 0
9 1995 61.0 0
- 1947 61.0 0
10 2019 60.4 0
- 1954 60.4 0
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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Not a total drought buster for the south shore but finally a good soaking. And even better since it rained slowly vs all at once. Desperately needed. Hopefully there can be some more. 

The drought monitor will probably remove every shade next week 

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

At this time of the year it doesn't matter-- we're well into fall and nothing is growing here right now.  Also the reservoirs are fine, so any rainfall deficit doesn't really matter. Not every year has to be way above normal, we've had plenty (too many!) years with too much rain, it's time for things to balance out now.

 

Also, if you want to water something, you can do so.  Lawns are a waste of space and a waste of resources, so I was done with those years ago.

It was a significant short lived dry spell here, and perhaps one of the most significant for how little rain fell here, and the data backs this up. Reservoirs never got down too low because those areas saw more rain. I don't mind a dry period to even things out. I don't worry too much about a lawn, but many trees here were stressed from the drought. When the trees become stressed, it's clear indication of an intense dry spell.

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