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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 6 pm EDT, rainfall amounts are:

Bridgeport: 0.36"
Islip: 0.51"
New York City-JFK: 0.87"
New York City-LGA: 0.63"
New York City-NYC: 0.58"
Newark: 0.61"
Philadelphia: 0.88"
Westhampton: 1.38" (old record: 1.23", 1958)

Additional light rain is possible tonight and tomorrow. From New York City and its nearby suburbs southward, a general 0.50"-1.50" storm total rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely tomorrow through Sunday. Most locations in that area will see the lower part of that range.

The first 10 days of October will be much cooler than normal despite a brief warmup at the middle of next week. The overall temperature could average 3°-5° below normal during the October 1-10 period.

Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. October 1988 was the coldest exception. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +17.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.646 today.

On September 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.608 (RMM). The September 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.367 (RMM).

 

What's causing all this early season cold weather Don and what are its implications on the winter?

 

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17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

June 1.

Damn almost made it through all of met summer without significant rainfall.

Well at least we did it through all of astro summer.

The weird thing is even with all this dryness and heat we still didn't hit 100 anywhere this summer except for EWR.  I wonder why that is-- it's said that you need a dry summer to get to 100.  You can even get there if the sea breeze comes in later in the day because the dry weather causes the temps to rise much faster in the morning-- I've seen it hit 100 here as early as 11 AM in such scenarios.

 

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Damn almost made it through all of met summer without significant rainfall.

Well at least we did it through all of astro summer.

The weird thing is even with all this dryness and heat we still didn't hit 100 anywhere this summer except for EWR.  I wonder why that is-- it's said that you need a dry summer to get to 100.  You can even get there if the sea breeze comes in later in the day because the dry weather causes the temps to rise much faster in the morning-- I've seen it hit 100 here as early as 11 AM in such scenarios.

 

That is not true at all. My area near New Brunswick hit 100 multiple days

New Brunswick and Monmouth (BLM) both officially hit 100 at least once 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That is not true at all. My area near New Brunswick hit 100 multiple days

New Brunswick and Monmouth (BLM) both officially hit 100 at least once 

Yeah I mean it happened in NJ but nowhere east of there.  Someone said this summer was hotter than 1999 and drier-- no way the whole area was over 100 in 1999 and much drier-- we had a major drought until Floyd hit. 1999 had the hottest month on record in July 1999 until July 2010 came along and 20 90 degree days in that month alone!

This was a moderately hot and dry summer.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  58degs.(50/65) or -4.

Reinforcing BN Oct. 8,9,10.

Reached 61 here yesterday.

Today:   56-60, cloudy, wind ne.-breezy, Rain>Noon-6pm, 49 tomorrow AM.

About 1" to 2" more rain here between now and Wed. AM.

60*(69%RH) here at 7am.        56* at Noon.       54* at 3pm.       52* at 4pm.       54* 6pm-8pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will cloudy, breezy, and unseasonably cool. There will be periods of rain. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 60°

Newark: 61°

Philadelphia: 59°

The cool weather will persist until the middle of the week before a brief period of warmer readings arrives.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 69.8°; 15-Year: 71.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 73.9°

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What's causing all this early season cold weather Don and what are its implications on the winter?

 

The jet stream was altered from former Super typhoon Merbok's push into the Arctic region. It will take some time for that effect to fade--probably by mid-October. In response, some strong blocking had developed, which further amplified the changes that had occurred.

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Probably 72 more hours before clearing out.  Brief warmup Wed (10/5) - Fri (10/7) before trough comes through next weekend Sat (10/8) - Tue / Wed (10/11 - 12) before heading back towards normal.   1.21 in the bucket here rain going northeast , rain going southwest.  Was at 60 Sat and about the same today.  Monday and Tue dont look much different.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah I mean it happened in NJ but nowhere east of there.  Someone said this summer was hotter than 1999 and drier-- no way the whole area was over 100 in 1999 and much drier-- we had a major drought until Floyd hit. 1999 had the hottest month on record in July 1999 until July 2010 came along and 20 90 degree days in that month alone!

This was a moderately hot and dry summer.

 

Pretty sure Boston hit 100. And you realize the bar for a “hot summer” is the average temp, not the hottest day or two right? This IS an actual science…your gut feelings or opinions mean nothing, the data speaks for itself. 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Raining here now. .26 so far today and I’m over a 1.00 combined with more to come. 

A nice moderate rain here right now. We're fortunate that we're just getting into the rain today. It looks as if it's going to be NYC-south, with much of northern NJ staying dry today.

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Like 4 miles to my north looks dry and I've had .25 in the past hour

Yeah, we're fortunate that we're just getting into the northern edge of this rain band.

 

Looking ahead to tuesday's potential, 12z NAM and RGEM keep most of the rain to our south. That's still a very close call ... we don't know yet if we're going to get significant rain or if it'll be just to our south.

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