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Remnants of Ian: Threat for us?


stormtracker
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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Differences in rainfall totals between the GFS and other 12z globals so far are ludicrous. GFS is like 0.5-1” for most of the sub. Icon is like 3-6” and GGEM 2-4”. 

Euro definitely not on #TeamGFS. Gets rain started Friday evening, way earlier than other guidance. Actually a break for late Saturday and early Sunday, then more rain through Tuesday. VA is drowned…3-10”. Less for MD, but still a bunch. GFS a total outlier.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro definitely not on #TeamGFS. Gets rain started Friday evening, way earlier than other guidance. Actually a break for late Saturday and early Sunday, then more rain through Tuesday. VA is drowned…3-10”. Less for MD, but still a bunch. GFS a total outlier.

Are you able to post a map showing total precip through Tuesday?

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Any idea what is causing the large spin up cell in the upper left quadrant of the storm which is currently over the Atlantic?   I know that is is probably just a larger cell spinning up off the main circulation, but I don't recall ever seeing one which is so well organized and lasting this long. 

 

image.png.6961c64dbebd537d90968d1b5a30e34e.png

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(1/2) The Maryland Department of Emergency Management continues to monitor Hurricane Ian closely. The situation is fast-moving and continues to develop so please remain vigilant. Ian will bring periods of light to moderate rain Friday night through Sunday as well as the risk of inland flooding and flash flooding. Periods of gale-force winds are possible at times through Monday, mainly for ocean beaches and south of Drum Point/Cobb Point MD on the Chesapeake/Potomac.

 

 

(2/2) Flash flooding can be quick and dangerous. If you receive a flood watch, warning, or suspect flooding is happening, immediately head to higher ground.Create or update your family's emergency kit with non-perishable food, water, flashlights, batteries, and medical supplies. Learn more about kits here: bit.ly/-kits. Keep tuned to your local news and weather and continue to monitor Hurricane Ian. #MdReady.

 

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW, which again, is next to zero lol, 18z NAM has heavy rain getting in here late Friday afternoon

Based off of what the Nam just showed, a couple more adjustments like that and the hurricane will make its turn west when it gets up to the Chesapeake.  That was a pretty significant change from what all the models have showed.  I know, it's the NAM so should just ignore.

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Hurricane Ian Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM 
SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of South Santee River
South Carolina to Little River Inlet.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf
City, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Surf City to
Cape Lookout, North Carolina.
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16 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

GFS still 1 to 3 inches.. I personally think that would be right.. if it was a snow forecast. 

 

It’s not even that. Way less than other guidance. It pushes the remnant low well south with that high pressing in more and suppressing it. 

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