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Remnants of Ian: Threat for us?


stormtracker
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When Charley went thru ft. Myers in 2004 my wife had the unfortunate luck to be visiting her parents at the time. With our 3 month old daughter in tow. They made out fine but couldn’t get back to DC for 10 days or so and were miserable in the heat. She brought me back a “I survived Hurricane Charley” t-shirt, which I put away and then uncovered this spring when I was cleaning out old clothes. So I’ve been wearing the hell out of that shirt this summer. Since it was in good condition from all those years at the bottom of a drawer. Will have to put it away now because a)wearing it is probably bad form and b) it’s, frankly, been rendered obsolete by Ian.

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22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I've noticed over the past year or two the Euro tends to be too high with QPF in the warm season beyond D4. When it's on an island with higher totals and D4 or further out, don't take it at face value. 

It wasn’t on an island at all. Rest of the globals supported it and gfs was on the island. Looks like gfs will win now.

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26 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:


Most tropical systems stay out to sea and stay well east, no? Pretty rare track for this to go to WV/KY border.. I think?


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Well, that wasn't the point exactly. Your post was wrt the 18z NAM precip distribution. The reality is as the tropical remnants move NW and interact with a front/encounter the cool/dry HP pushing in from Canada, there will probably be more than one associated disturbance impacting the region. The actual remnant low may result in a precip max to the SW of the DCA-BWI corridor, and then as the flow shunts everything eastward, there looks to be a developing coastal low resulting in heavy rains along the coast later in the weekend/early next week, thus another precip max to the east.

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