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Remnants of Ian: Threat for us?


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Starting to look like 2 landfalls. One would think more significant impacts for portions of our area. Seems like a non traditional track??? A landfall on the west coast of Florida and another on the southeast coast seems pretty unusual?? I guess we will see how things trend in the next 24 hrs. 

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Seems like more divergence on Ian rain arrival time overnight than was present yesterday. 6z GFS really slows it down and doesn’t bring it into the metro areas until early Sunday. Whereas the 0z euro moved a little earlier, starting mid-late morning Saturday. How much the high pressure pushes and where the northern edge sets up also are in play.

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3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z GFS.  Finally has caved to the direct hit on the west coast of Florida.  Rain totals are insane.  Over 44 inch bullseye!!!!  EURO definitely did a better job with this storm.  

07570B42-940D-4EB8-9815-1BD82B255A5E.png

I'm afraid to go check WB, JB must be basking in all his glory.  To his credit he was very early to call a Tampa hit and didnt waiver even when the models were shifting westward.   

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My parents have a place a little NW of Tampa, which might well float away in a few days. They're on their way back up north right now, so they're relying on their neighbor for updates.

ICON wants to smoke MBY overnight Sunday-Monday. Curious to see what the 12z varsity quite has to say.

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

My parents have a place a little NW of Tampa, which might well float away in a few days. They're on their way back up north right now, so they're relying on their neighbor for updates.

ICON wants to smoke MBY overnight Sunday-Monday. Curious to see what the 12z varsity quite has to say.

GFS and GGEM both juiced up for the whole sub. Still timing differences though.

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38 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

A pretty extended easterly fetch coming into the MA beaches on the GFS. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_25.thumb.png.7a4d10a987c99204acdec673bf2a1250.png

Been a while since I’ve seen an easterly fetch like that. One could dream of this being in January and the high centered over Toronto… 

Ok, back to the present. Carry on, people. 

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11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Been a while since I’ve seen an easterly fetch like that. One could dream of this being in January and the high centered over Toronto… 

Ok, back to the present. Carry on, people. 

 

 

Surf zone forecasts starting to ramp up with significant beach erosion and wave action for this Sunday and Monday.  As for the Easterly fetch,  I recall back to the President Day Blizzard of 2003. part of that great 02-03 Winter. We had a 2,000 mile long Easterly fetch I believe,  causing many areas to turn over to sleet.  Here we measured 24 inches. Had it not been for the sleet we would have easily achieved 35 inches.    

>

Here is the surf zone forecast for this Monday, October 3, 2022.  Of note is the extended period of East and ENE Winds onto the beaches, beginning on Friday and going through Monday. 

20-1664830800-4.gif.17ad81932b8f1f5c52b65ef286e91e04.gif

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13 hours ago, jewell2188 said:

Starting to look like 2 landfalls. One would think more significant impacts for portions of our area. Seems like a non traditional track??? A landfall on the west coast of Florida and another on the southeast coast seems pretty unusual?? I guess we will see how things trend in the next 24 hrs. 

If it takes that path Bastardi is going to be living off his call for like the next 15yrs.  Probably even put Ian's name on his tombstone alongside Sandy.  

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