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October 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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6 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Looks like a nice, warm weekend and with ground temps still above freezing, I have to think that most if not all the snow will melt.  I'm hoping so.  Not quite ready for the snow to stick around as I still have some Fall projects to wrap up.  Over the Summer I converted my woodshed into a chx coop, so had to build another shed for the wood, and thankfully just finished getting it all split and stacked right before the storm.  I wouldn't even be disappointed if winter snow held off another month.

Storm total map. 

Appears the bullseye was up here in my neck of the woods.  Snow has compacted quite a bit already.  Last night when deeper forcing/moisture moved out, the temp actually warmed to 35 and even rained a bit before falling to 29 for the low.  I have about a foot of dense snow otg.

sfav2_CONUS_72h_2022101912.jpg

This sounds like a storm worthy of mention in an updated version of the book "So Cold a Sky: Upper Michigan Weather Stories". Great book, by the way, if you're able to find a copy. I got it through abe books.

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43 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

This sounds like a storm worthy of mention in an updated version of the book "So Cold a Sky: Upper Michigan Weather Stories". Great book, by the way, if you're able to find a copy. I got it through abe books.

In 2016 I went to the Kaufman Auditorium in Marquette and saw the author, Karl Bohnak (who at the time was our longtime chief met here in the UP), do a live picture presentation of the book and actually got a signed copy....definitely a good read.

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I remember back in early June 89', I was driving home on leave from my base in NJ. Cruising I-80 across OHIO, ran into svr stms. CB was lit with chatter from the rigs. They were having a hard time keeping them on the road. Either straight line winds, or possibly a nearby tornado, not sure as it was in the middle of the night. Wind hit the car (Ford Maverick), and pushed me into the shoulder almost instantly. Heavy rain, very humid. Decided to head up through MI, and take the scenic way home. Crossed the Mackinaw Bridge very early (around sunrise), after a 3 hr nap, as I had been driving for a quite a few hours already. Loved that, but a little creepy up that high. Needed gas, so stopped in a little town somewhere on the other side. Was in shorts and T-shirt when I stepped out to gas up. WOW, 45 feels rather brisk after hot, humid just a few hours earlier. Was already that way in NJ, too. But the smell, and look of home there was awesome. And the sky looked much closer to the ground, and was so clear, and crisp looking. After funky air at sea level for many months, this was great. Still a few more hours to home though. I shivered most nights partying with friends, as I was accustomed to the hot, humid weather already.

 

Took leave late Dec 90', and I drove home in an Olds (model escapes me). Coming across PA on I-80, doing 55, I saw the traffic halted at the bottom of the big hill I was on. Started to put on the brakes, when the car started to slide. BLACK ICE. OH SHIT OH SHIT!! My heart started pounding. I'm racing towards the backend of a semi. Gently tapping brakes, and moving over to the right lane slowly, as there was another rig length of distance. Just barely was able to make it to the right shoulder, and get a grip on the snow. Heart, in my throat, I slowly moved ahead, and got in line. But when we were able to start moving, I just slid over into the left lane, then that shoulder, were I could get a grip again. Until we got to the sanded area, it was very slow going. After that, all good the rest of the way past Chicago, then northward. The night the Desert Storm op started, was at the hunting shack with my dad drinking, and having venison steaks. Heard it over the radio. Never got orders to go there, so felt rather fortunate. But was really nervous about it, and so were my parents. Air war did the job, tho.

 

I-80 is tough man LOL 

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47 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

weekend for the ages coming up, beautiful warm temps, great fall colors, don't blow it & soak it up friends


Absolutely. Colors are really exploding here. I bought the new iPhone 14 pro, which lets you shoot 48mp in proraw, I’m hitting the park this weekend with my AirPods. Always a peaceful and relaxing time. 

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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe we can get some good fires this weekend.

 

 

20221018_midwest_trd.png

If you expand that out to the entire US, it looks pretty dry nearly coast to coast across the south with no drought in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.  Hopefully that isn't a harbinger of things to come this winter.

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18 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

If you expand that out to the entire US, it looks pretty dry nearly coast to coast across the south with no drought in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.  Hopefully that isn't a harbinger of things to come this winter.

82% of the CONUS is D0 or worse, so yeah, pretty dry.

2020-21 was a pretty dry winter in the region for a Nina winter.  Last winter had more of the classical look that you see on Nina composites.  

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22 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe we can get some good fires this weekend.

 

 

20221018_midwest_trd.png

Yesterday's drought monitor (valid 10/18) shows the least amount of the U.S. not in some drought designation (D0-D4) since they've been producing the drought monitor (back to 1/4/2000). Only 17.77% of the U.S. was not in one of the drought categories. The previous record was 18.22% the prior week (10/11/2022). Third place is 7/17/2012, when only 19.24% was not designated in a drought category.

image.thumb.png.e1be2ddeab08a18c63bc51da8c0e53f4.png

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8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Today, the first warm day, was expected to reach the upper 70s, but Cedar Rapids has made it to 83º.  Three mornings ago CR had a record low of 16º.

Some 80 degree readings into western IL, which is even a little warmer than the warm guidance like the HRRR.

These early/late season airmasses seem to have a way of overperforming, especially when it's dry.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Some 80 degree readings into western IL, which is even a little warmer than the warm guidance like the HRRR.

These early/late season airmasses seem to have a way of overperforming, especially when it's dry.

The Euro often under-forecasts highs on strong warm advection days, but this morning's run (74º) was way off.

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Some 80 degree readings into western IL, which is even a little warmer than the warm guidance like the HRRR.

These early/late season airmasses seem to have a way of overperforming, especially when it's dry.

As dry as it is, forecasters would be wise to lean toward the higher end of guidance for highs.

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