Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

October 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Still a good amount of uncertainty, but I actually am warming up to this type of scenario happening somewhere.  It may be farther east in the IWX cwa though.

I would even say that I don't know why there won't be snow accumulation well inland from the lake.  This setup has a lot going for it and is favorable for heavy precip extending well inland, some of which will intersect with the colder bl temps.  Gino brought up what happened in Buffalo in 2006, but an example closer to home is October 7-8, 2000.  This airmass seems a little warmer aloft than that one, but that may be countered by it being a week and a half later in the month with somewhat cooler water temps now... in other words, perhaps the airmass doesn't have to be as cold.  That one produced a localized 6" in Peotone, IL with amounts trending down as you got closer to the lake.  Could this be like an eastward displaced version of that?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I would even say that I don't know why there won't be snow accumulation well inland from the lake.  This setup has a lot going for it and is favorable for heavy precip extending well inland, some of which will intersect with the colder bl temps.  Gino brought up what happened in Buffalo in 2006, but an example closer to home is October 7-8, 2000.  This airmass seems a little warmer aloft than that one, but that may be countered by it being a week and a half later in the month with somewhat cooler water temps now... in other words, perhaps the airmass doesn't have to be as cold.  That one produced a localized 6" in Peotone, IL with amounts trending down as you got closer to the lake.  Could this be like an eastward displaced version of that?  

I was right in middle of hardest hit area for that storm. Just did this slideshow for it. 

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

HRRR likely overdoing lake-effect like usual. But IWX issues statement for tonight:

pid:202210171851-KIWX-WWUS83-SPSIWX::segnum:0.png

The BUF NWS during that event had a lake effect rain event forecasted until the day of. They dropped a lake effect snow advisory for 1-6" of snow the morning the event hit then upgraded to warning that evening when things went crazy. I remember going for a walk with my parents during that event with transformers blowing all over, the sky lit up like a Christmas tree. Branches and trees were snapping nearly every second, my mom nearly getting hit by one. It was not an advisable walk, but it was such a crazy event I had to be out in it. I think the statistics afterward were Buffalo and surrounding areas had over 70% of the trees damaged/destroyed. 

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

First WWA of the season! Some areas in the CWA already with close to an inch of snow. Still measuring rain IMBY.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

INZ005-006-008-014-017-024-104-116-216-MIZ078-079-180500-
/O.NEW.KIWX.WW.Y.0012.221017T2121Z-221018T0500Z/
Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Marshall-Whitley-Wabash-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern Kosciusko-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Lagrange,
Topeka, Shipshewana, Kendallville, Ligonier, Albion, Plymouth,
Bremen, Culver, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Wabash,
North Manchester, South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger,
Syracuse, Milford, North Webster, Leesburg, Warsaw, Winona Lake,
Silver Lake, Mentone, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg,
Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, and Mendon
521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow at times mixed with rain. Additional snow
  accumulations of up to three inches. Localized amounts up to 4
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the evening commute. Slow down and give
  yourself extra time to get to your destination.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

radmap.php?layers[]=nexrad&layers[]=sbw&layers[]=sbwh&layers[]=uscounties&vtec=2022.O.NEW.KIWX.WW.Y.0012

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would love to run some of these profiles in BUFKIT.  Even without modifying for current lake water temps, SBCAPE is progged at 500+ J/kg downwind of the lake this evening.  Would probably result in lake-induced CAPE values well over 1000 J/kg if I had to guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

First WWA of the season! Some areas in the CWA already with close to an inch of snow. Still measuring rain IMBY.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

INZ005-006-008-014-017-024-104-116-216-MIZ078-079-180500-
/O.NEW.KIWX.WW.Y.0012.221017T2121Z-221018T0500Z/
Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Marshall-Whitley-Wabash-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern Kosciusko-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Lagrange,
Topeka, Shipshewana, Kendallville, Ligonier, Albion, Plymouth,
Bremen, Culver, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Wabash,
North Manchester, South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger,
Syracuse, Milford, North Webster, Leesburg, Warsaw, Winona Lake,
Silver Lake, Mentone, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg,
Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, and Mendon
521 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow at times mixed with rain. Additional snow
  accumulations of up to three inches. Localized amounts up to 4
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on very slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the evening commute. Slow down and give
  yourself extra time to get to your destination.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

radmap.php?layers[]=nexrad&layers[]=sbw&layers[]=sbwh&layers[]=uscounties&vtec=2022.O.NEW.KIWX.WW.Y.0012

IWX tweeted this

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Brian D said:

Looks like Duluth reported a 2.0" and a 2.7" the last couple days. 4.7" would make that the 3rd snowiest event for the first half of Oct. behind 1966 & 1925. Wow!

 

Update: Sent an email to NWS Duluth regarding the amounts reported. That seems way more than anyone else got. Possible they screwed up. Thinking 2.7" is the total overall, as that is in line with all the other reports.

 

Update #2: They responded quick. 2.7" was the total. Hopefully they will make the corrections on there prelim CF6 form, and it should make it into MRCC.

After further discussion and clarification, there were 2 events, so 2.0 & 2.7 were correct. 4.7" in 2 days in mid Oct is very significant. It'll be interesting to see what happens later next week. Shades of 2020.

Duluth OCT 2020

Date Precipitation
(in)
Snowfall
(in)
Snow Depth
(in)
Max Temp
(°F)
Min Temp
(°F)
 
2020-10-01 T 0.0 0 50 37  
2020-10-02 0.00 0.0 0 42 34  
2020-10-03 0.00 0.0 0 44 29  
2020-10-04 T 0.0 0 52 29  
2020-10-05 T 0.0 0 65 42  
2020-10-06 T 0.0 0 68 41  
2020-10-07 0.00 0.0 0 63 44  
2020-10-08 0.00 0.0 0 62 34  
2020-10-09 T 0.0 0 80 51  
2020-10-10 0.00 0.0 0 55 40  
2020-10-11 0.01 0.0 0 58 41  
2020-10-12 1.17 0.0 0 60 45  
2020-10-13 0.00 0.0 0 58 39  
2020-10-14 0.51 0.0 0 49 37  
2020-10-15 T T 0 44 28  
2020-10-16 0.01 T 0 41 26  
2020-10-17 0.24 1.9 0 35 27  
2020-10-18 T T 1 31 23  
2020-10-19 T T 1 33 25  
2020-10-20 0.47 5.8 6 34 29  
2020-10-21 0.02 0.1 4 34 31  
2020-10-22 0.32 4.1 4 34 30  
2020-10-23 T 0.1 7 34 24  
2020-10-24 T T 5 31 21  
2020-10-25 T T 4 27 21  
2020-10-26 T T 4 28 16  
2020-10-27 T T 4 30 13  
2020-10-28 0.03 T 4 37 30  
2020-10-29 0.00 0.0 2 32 23  
2020-10-30 0.00 0.0 2 40 20  
2020-10-31 T T 1 46 26

 

Duluth Oct 2022 so far

Date Precipitation
(in)
Snowfall
(in)
Snow Depth
(in)
Max Temp
(°F)
Min Temp
(°F)
 
2022-10-01 0.00 0.0 0 58 48  
2022-10-02 T 0.0 0 58 49  
2022-10-03 T 0.0 0 70 51  
2022-10-04 T 0.0 0 70 55  
2022-10-05 0.03 0.0 0 72 54  
2022-10-06 T 0.0 0 54 34  
2022-10-07 T T 0 44 30  
2022-10-08 0.00 0.0 M 61 32  
2022-10-09 0.00 0.0 0 51 32  
2022-10-10 0.00 0.0 0 62 32  
2022-10-11 0.01 0.0 0 77 42  
2022-10-12 0.03 0.0 0 56 38  
2022-10-13 T T 0 44 31  
2022-10-14 0.13 2.0 2 43 31  
2022-10-15 0.23 2.7 2 44 31  
2022-10-16 0.02 0.4 0 41 31

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is going to be a problem: 

At 5:45 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. TREE LIMB 6-12 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED FROM THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND.

At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.40 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER FLICKERING FROM WIND AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N Tippecanoe Lake [Kosciusko Co, IN] NWS EMPLOYEE reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.00 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER IS FLICKERING FROM HEAVY SNOW AND WIND.

 

 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

This is going to be a problem: 

At 5:45 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports NON-TSTM WND DMG. TREE LIMB 6-12 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED FROM THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND WIND.

At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N North Webster [Kosciusko Co, IN] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.40 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER FLICKERING FROM WIND AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION.

At 6:30 PM EDT, 2 N Tippecanoe Lake [Kosciusko Co, IN] NWS EMPLOYEE reports HEAVY SNOW of 2.00 INCH. TOTAL SINCE APPROXIMATELY 4:30 PM EDT. POWER IS FLICKERING FROM HEAVY SNOW AND WIND.

 

 

At the rate things are going, have to wonder if a warning may eventually be justified for a small area (assuming not too much movement of the banding).  Warning criteria amounts may be questionable but the out of season nature and impacts to the power grid may warrant bending the criteria.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At the rate things are going, have to wonder if a warning may eventually be justified for a small area (assuming not too much movement of the banding).  Warning criteria amounts may be questionable but the out of season nature and impacts to the power grid may warrant bending the criteria.

I think most areas switched back to rain for now except for near Fort Wayne and points south (!) where it appears to be snowing. But where ever the dominate snow band sets up overnight will create a mess if it's stationary for even 3 or 4 hours. I want to believe in the HRRR because it bullseyes me the last four runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

11,000 NIPSCO customer without power across Northern Indiana. 

https://www.nipsco.com/outages/power-outages

Pretty crazy, possibly historic event unfolding. I had JUST moved to S. Bend in Oct of '97 when SWMI got hit with that synoptic 8" (trees still full of leaves) storm. Did massive tree damage in/around Kzoo. SB was just spared by half a county iirc. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At the rate things are going, have to wonder if a warning may eventually be justified for a small area (assuming not too much movement of the banding).  Warning criteria amounts may be questionable but the out of season nature and impacts to the power grid may warrant bending the criteria.

Izzi about to bust to tame on his call.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Just sayin..

 

Nov 1966 Snowstorm totals.png

Yeah, there's that, although Chicago got fringed.  But a prime example of heavy early November snow in Chicago leading to a good season is 1951-52.  There was 13.3" in the first week of November and the final total was 66.4", which is the 6th snowiest on record.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...