MattPetrulli Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Thru 54 the newest HWRF is averaging maybe 40-50 miles east of prior run but not much change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 4 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea im very perplexed as to why convection isn't really taking off My theory is there are multiple mid and low level circulations and elongations that are competing and interfering with one another and things just aren't stacking. Models do an extremely poor job on this scale too. This seems to have been a problem for the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Yeah it can happen. Was it Opal? Storm in the mid-1990s crapped out on the way in. However they've gone the other way recently. Florida must remain on guard regardless of Category. Big wind field would maintain energy. Opal's change I believe was more due to an ERC I believe although in this pattern SW shear may have been present but it seemed it just came out of a big RI cycle and then collapsed from what I recall. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1004.php 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Yeah it can happen. Was it Opal? Storm in the mid-1990s crapped out on the way in. However they've gone the other way recently. Florida must remain on guard regardless of Category. Big wind field would maintain energy. Yep Opal 1995 made landfall in western Florida Panhandle was a category 4 storm about 200 miles prior to landfall and made it onshore with 95 mph winds barely shear and Dry air did it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 We could be setting up for a real perception problem here with the anticipated weakening prior to landfall. I'm not sure how much the general public realizes that the surge is sort of baked in and it takes a lot of time for that to ramp down after winds decrease. One could argue that the surge may not even decrease at all in this case if the storm is expanding as it approaches landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: We could be setting up for a real perception problem here with the anticipated weakening prior to landfall. I'm not sure how much the general public realizes that the surge is sort of baked in and it takes a lot of time for that to ramp down after winds decrease. One could argue that the surge may not even decrease at all in this case if the storm is expanding as it approaches landfall. Most of the general public probably doesn't even realize there is a hurricane threat at this point. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 I went and stocked up on food and water and beer and gas in the florabama region but the noon time runs look more favorable for this area to avoid large impacts. Changes daily so staying vigilant but feel better about being prepared now and just a wait and see game for me now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yep Opal 1995 made landfall in western Florida Panhandle was a category 4 storm about 200 miles prior to landfall and made it onshore with 95 mph winds barely shear and Dry air did it in. There were many factors for the weakening, but it seemed like the core was disrupted after the RI, dry air/shear definitely had an impact. Additionally, OHC wasn't supportive of a Cat. 4 towards the N GOM where there were cooler eddies, iirc. Seemed like everything went wrong for Opal after the RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Dbullsfan22 said: Maybe I’m just a super weenie nobody experienced wants to respond to but I was hoping for some responses from the Ian to Tampa crowd from my post in the banter thread, I posted it over there to not clutter over here, but it seems a lot of calling for a hurricane to a place that hasn’t been hit with one in 100 years. The odds just don’t seem likely If you are referring to landfalling Majors, sure. But you know by now from following the thread that a TS or Cat 1 on certain trajectories can inflict extreme impact and damage around TB. You should be just fine up there in Wesley Chapel, Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Opal's change I believe was more due to an ERC I believe although in this pattern SW shear may have been present but it seemed it just came out of a big RI cycle and then collapsed from what I recall. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1004.php Opal had the pinhole eye that essentially folded like a house of cards. I guess once it gets to that high category state it needs perfection especially when the core is that tiny. Anything goes wrong and it collapses. I'm sure the dry air near the continent helped too. This one does seem to be more at risk at having that 1990s-2000s Gulf half-a-cane outcome if the departing trough throws down too much dry air. But the Gulf is untouched this year by any hurricane so who knows how long this could sustain for in the N Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 27 minutes ago, bugalou said: Most of the general public probably doesn't even realize there is a hurricane threat at this point. I’m on the east coast of fl - stores have been sold out of water for the past day or so. Municipalities have been handing out sand bags. State of emergency was declared for the entire state, too. The general public knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Looks like a big 'ol plate of scrambled eggs. Like something straight out of the WPAC. Maybe Dmin tonight can get some convection going and get this thing going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Euro is out and running as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Looks like a big 'ol plate of scrambled eggs. Like something straight out of the WPAC. Maybe Dmin tonight can get some convection going and get this thing going Basically going according to plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Not sure if I'm being a weenie but it kind of looks like the low level swirl is moving due north on visible. A little hard to tell through the taller clouds but that's what my eyes see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Not sure if I'm being a weenie but it kind of looks like the low level swirl is moving due north on visible. A little hard to tell through the taller clouds but that's what my eyes see. It's always deceiving. GFS yesterday had it crossing 15N and 80W. So GFS was definitely too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Because there is very little convection over the center, you can now see the well-defined surface vortex on the visible loop. It just needs a blob of intense convection to fire over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Euro’s eyes still locked on Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Euro not wavering any 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 The Euro only maxes the intensity at 969 mb this run, a good 10-15 mb weaker than last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Those dewpoints are unseasonably cold this week in Northern FL. As storm passes Tampa on GFS, Tallahassee dewpoint is 40F. Euro in the 30s. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Euro only maxes the intensity at 969 mb this run, a good 10-15 mb weaker than last night. Probably shear WSW and dry air intruding SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Just crawls up the peninsula. Maybe not even a TS by the time it enters GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, AChilders said: Euro not wavering any Euro has been consistent over past several runs. Not taking the bait to go west like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, AChilders said: Euro not wavering any Not wavering at all. Be wary on intensity though. Intensity still holy grail of hurricane forecasting. Conditions on that track would be favorable for something stronger. Not saying EURO is wrong but there is upside potential on a track coming in around or south of Tampa. Fact that EURO is not wavering for several runs now has to lead to higher confidence for landfall west coast of FL vs. Panhandle. Intensity is bigger question in my mind on a track like EURO is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Beautiful sun and a wonderful breeze coming off the ocean. I’m having deja vu. These conditions feel very similar to the day before Wilma. Just something about the air and the wind is exactly the same. 1st outer bands are looming on the horizon literally 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Probably shear WSW and dry air intruding SE yes. At landfall, 700 hPa layers has 50-60% relative humidity wrapping well into Central FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Euro goes Tampa-Atlanta-Knoxville-Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Beautiful sun and a wonderful breeze coming off the ocean. I’m having deja vu. These conditions feel very similar to the day before Wilma. Just something about the air and the wind is exactly the same. 1st outer bands are looming on the horizon literally I'm starting to look at what I need to do outside. It is hot and muggy, but yea me too feels something. Hard to say impending doom, but definitely fuel for anything that happens. It's been quiet this year and we know there is energy we do not even understand that wants to pop. Many times we prepare and it is for nothing. Ian looks like a mess, even around here it is what everyone is talking about and most are dismissing it. Charlie took a lot of us by surprise even though we watched the hype for days. But it had been quite a while since a real storm. If Ian gets it together and becomes a Major off the coast from here likely closer than Hermine was that knocked out power and took down weak trees, some prep is worthwhile. If it inches closer and is a solid Hurricane, we'll experience worse than Irma that was over the middle of the state. We were out of power for over two weeks and had two big oaks down and thousands of dollars of tree service and debris removal in our yard alone. We didn't even have sustained 70 mph winds, but did have a few gusts in the 80's or so. Yet Storm Surge could be the biggest impact here if it moves slow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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