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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Weather has a super sense of irony…don’t be surprised if this thing fails to deliver anything.  Wound t be the first time.,

 

I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals 

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22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals 

Hmmm..I guess we’ll see.  Katrina weekend significantly…the thing was…it was a Monster cat 5, and weekend to a strong cat 3 on approach. Good thing that happened or N.O. wouldn’t exist. 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals 

The environment depicted does not support significant weakening as depicted. I could understand if there was shear but GFS looks to have no shear there

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NWS Point and Click now says "Hurricane Conditions Possible" for central Brevard on Wednesday. Late yesterday, it said TS conditions.

 

Seems like the 02:00 track update shifted things slightly west.

 

 

2 AM EDT Advisory:

Quote


ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
...IAN MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY
MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 72.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in western and central Cuba should monitor the progress
of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 72.9 West.  Ian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected through early Sunday.  A
turn toward the northwest is forecast late Sunday, followed by a
north-northwestward turn by late Monday.  On the forecast track, 
the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean 
Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or 
over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday.  Ian will
then approach western Cuba on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Ian
is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday
night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall:
 
Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with
local maximum up to 6 inches
 
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up
to 12 inches
 
Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14
inches
 
These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
 
Florida Keys and South Florida: Heavy rains could begin as early as
Monday. Limited flash and urban flooding is possible with this
rainfall.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday.
 
Localized coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Jamaica in
areas of onshore winds on Sunday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Ian will begin affecting Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown 
 
NNNN

 

 
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2 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Really crawling over Florida. Big rainmaker on this run. 

Don't want to get too far ahead, but maybe Charley-esque impacts in interior FL assuming it doesn't pull a rot away in the Gulf scenario.  Even if weaker than Charley at landfall, it looks to be a larger storm which would help offset.

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We live in Hazlehurst Georgia now. We desperately need the rain Ian could bring. My pond is about 10’ below the level it was last year. It looks bad. 
I do not need 50-70mph winds with the pines on my property. So I need 6-8” of rain , that would help tremendously, but I don’t need trees on my trailer or sheds

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6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I've never seen a major cane totally fall to pieces in the Gulf unless it was approaching the far northern coast like Opal for example and that may have been more due to an ERC....I don't buy the massive weakening at all indicated by some of the globals 

We shall see but the pattern lately has had a lot of dry air in the eastern states, but I think it's a bit early to determine that right now.  Now with the set up I would think there would be a SSW flow of a fairly most airm mass.  Looks like it could be a similar set up with Fiona to the east moving NNE into Nova Scotia except this is further west then move up the Piedmont into the Norhtern Mid Atlantic.  I see some models are out in Ohio Valley think that may be too far west. 

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Late in the period, the 
guidance indicates the storm will begin to recurve toward Florida.  
As mentioned before, the track models are in general agreement with 
this scenario, however there is a large amount of cross-track 
spread at 72 hours and beyond.  In fact, the east-west spread in 
the guidance at 96 hours is about 180 n mi, with the CTCI and ECMWF 
along the eastern side of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS 
ensemble mean along the western side.  The overall guidance 
envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC 
track has been nudged in that direction and lies just east of the 
various consensus aids.  Given the spread in the guidance, and 
the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the 
track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories.  Users are 
reminded that the long-term average NHC 4- and 5-day track errors 
are around 150 and 200 n mi, respectively.
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24 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

We shall see but the pattern lately has had a lot of dry air in the eastern states, but I think it's a bit early to determine that right now.  Now with the set up I would think there would be a SSW flow of a fairly most airm mass.  Looks like it could be a similar set up with Fiona to the east moving NNE into Nova Scotia except this is further west then move up the Piedmont into the Norhtern Mid Atlantic.  I see some models are out in Ohio Valley think that may be too far west. 

The  only  chance Ian has  is to turn hard NE south of  Tampa.

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4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The  only  chance Ian has  is to turn hard NE south of  Tampa.

I’m sorry, not understanding.  Only chance for what? Lf as a hurricane?  Even if winds are not catastrophic, the potential for flooding damage seems significant if it makes it anywhere near Tampa, No? 

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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