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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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56 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm pretty sure at least 90% of the board wants a big hit on the Tampa area.

Unfortunately for those that marinate in such scenarios, the odds are near zero that it happens, ever.

Of course a Cat 1 on the Hurricane Phoenix trajectory would cause billions in damage here, so a big hit doesn’t need to be a high end storm.

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36 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Feels more like a mid-October storm with the temps and overall synoptic pattern ahead and behind it. Chilly in the east.

edit: also noticeable is the drop in intensity is now uniform in all hurricane models once in northern gulf, likely reacting to dry air/sheer accompanying the trough.

A lot keep talking about how chilly it's been. Florida must not be participating. 93 with heat index of 105 IMBY. But I looked at temps tonight across the East and was surprised. 

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8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are pretty consistently predicting notable weakening if this storm gets into the northern gulf and starts sucking in the dry air behind the big trough.  The 18z GFS shows the storm really collapsing over the last 36 hours prior to landfall.

The synoptic configuration modeled in the 48 hours prior to landfall is definitely something more reminiscent of storms in the early 2000s and not recent years. That big longwave trough is gonna deposit a massive dry airmass in its wake that will likely impact the storm greatly.

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Until the GFS stops this center relocation it can't be considered as a viable solution.  What I'm seeing on satellite indicates a sheared but very strong low level cyclonic vorticity signature just ENE of the ABC islands.  This will likely tighten overnight as it passes north of the ABC islands, and by tomorrow we should have TCG with a sheared but potent LLC.  This likely stays sheared until passing Hispanola, but in no way is it randomly reforming south and west because its being sheared.  

We just saw this with Fiona.  It was badly sheared with a very vigorous and closed LLC as it headed west.  the MLC trailed behind until the shear let up, and then the LLC instantly took over and it exploded (LLC did not REFORM east).  For 98L, it will be the same exact process.  All aboard the Euro train!

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I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.

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7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.

Any thoughts on East Coast DC-NYC experiencing tropical remnants?

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11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.

Agree. It’s becoming clear the environment behind the trough will be quite hostile in the northern GOM. Anything “left behind” would likely be weakening, possibly significantly, on approach. Something to watch once we get a defined system 

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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