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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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1 minute ago, GaWx said:

12Z ICON: goes to Jacksonville, which is 100+ miles east of the 6Z and 0Z runs.

Yeah even though it's the icon there is still a very small that the icon and the ukmet and some eps members still float the slim chance this goes off the east coast of Florida or just along the coastline 

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One thing about specialized hurricane models, they are all initialized and bounded by the GFS.  HWRF and HMON have a large outer grid, they should have some independence, unless the GFS is somehow poorly initialized.  If it is GFS and GFS initialized models against the world, the world is probably correct.

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Ian has a large circulation which sometimes take longer to wrap up. This could be a decent sized windfield once it gets going. I would go with the Euro for track (for obvious reasons). This will be a very costly track if most of western FL (TB and south) is in the eastern flank. 

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7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z ICON: goes to Jacksonville, which is 100+ miles east of the 6Z and 0Z runs.

Big difference in ICON 12z yesterday (top) vs 12z today (bottom) is a faster Ian and a slightly sharper trough. Wonder if new data ingested yesterday caused the shift to the east. Will be curious what other 12z models show. 

PCIMG_2022-09-25_11-40-30.JPG

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As I stated before I went to sleep in the wee hours of the morning, I still favor the EURO solution only because it keeps Ian less organized in the short term, which seems likely because of Ian's current disorganization. 

The models further west like the GFS and similar members, all have Ian basically sub 980-mb by late tonight or the wee hours of tomorrow. That just doesn't seem realistic to me given the current state of organization. 

 

 

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Maybe I’m just a super weenie nobody experienced wants to respond to but I was hoping for some responses from the Ian to Tampa crowd from my post in the banter thread, I posted it over there to not clutter over here, but it seems a lot of calling for a hurricane to a place that hasn’t been hit with one in 100 years. The odds just don’t seem likely 

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It’s turning north.

Looks like first outer bands are gonna start hitting Southeast Florida by this afternoon or evening. 
 

Rosh Hoshanah is coming. I’ll be offline all the way until Tuesday night. By then we might be having a full blown hurricane, if it keeps trending east. 
 

im gonna keep my weather radio on so I won’t be taken by surprise. 
 

notably, Rosh Hoshanah is judgement day. What timing for a hurricane with such an uncertain forecast. 

83CD08AA-4D4D-4E9D-A087-CD7873903AB1.png

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The Isle of Youth is a good benchmark for which part of the Peninsula deals with this I think.  Any track west means Tampa and north.  Any track over or east means SE/SW FL.  Still not sold on Panhandle whatsoever (and GFS seems to moving away from that idea also).

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12Z UKMET initialized one degree further north (15.3 N at 8AM EDT vs 14.3 N at same time on 0Z run). It ends up ~20 miles north of the Port Charlotte 0Z landfall point, which is Venice (~60 miles south of Tampa Bay). Another difference vs 0Z is that it never goes offshore N FL/S GA as it stays a little inland:


  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.09.2022

        TROPICAL STORM IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N  79.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 25.09.2022    0  15.3N  79.2W     1003            29
    0000UTC 26.09.2022   12  16.7N  80.8W     1001            31
    1200UTC 26.09.2022   24  18.7N  82.8W      998            35
    0000UTC 27.09.2022   36  20.8N  83.9W      995            38
    1200UTC 27.09.2022   48  22.9N  84.4W      994            40
    0000UTC 28.09.2022   60  24.7N  84.1W      992            45
    1200UTC 28.09.2022   72  26.2N  83.7W      989            55
    0000UTC 29.09.2022   84  26.9N  82.9W      990            53
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   96  26.9N  82.7W      991            49
    0000UTC 30.09.2022  108  27.5N  82.1W      993            42
    1200UTC 30.09.2022  120  29.1N  82.5W      991            42
    0000UTC 01.10.2022  132  30.1N  81.8W      993            36
    1200UTC 01.10.2022  144  32.8N  81.3W      996            35

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34 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

GFS position later this afternoon is still S of the current position. I'd be surprised if the GFS doesn't have further corrections in later runs. 

GFS is actually showing a center jump to the west between 00z and 06z.  Looks suspect.

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47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ian's appearance on satellite looks to be improving.

 I agree as it looks the most organized (most stacked) yet imho. Thus, this could be on the verge of intensifying rapidly. This is my first comment on its organization since it got into the Caribbean.

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4 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Clearwater and St. Pete at least looks in the right side passing, if not worse. @Dbullsfan22 I'm already looking for non-met friends down there; otherwise, the Board normally does not do that type of forecast. 

Jim Cantore in Clearwater today and never a good sign to see Jim in your neighborhood 

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13 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane.

I don't know, I can see it happening. Its highly unusually to have such a cold and dry airmass this far south with a Hurricane right at the coast.  If that airmass gets in the way of Ian I can see rapid weakening occur as cP is like fire retardant to a Hurricane without thermal wind/jet support to interact with and introduce baraclonicity a la Fiona. Its just plowing directly into the backside polar high.

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Ian

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