USCG RS Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 hours ago, jbenedet said: Use IKE. Integrated kinetic energy. Facing a Dire Storm Forecast in Florida, Officials Delayed Evacuation https://nyti.ms/3SKlqzP "But while officials along much of that coastline responded with orders to evacuate on Monday, emergency managers in Lee County held off, pondering during the day whether to tell people to flee, but then deciding to see how the forecast evolved overnight." This is pretty damming if its the whole story 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 hours ago, jbenedet said: Use IKE. Integrated kinetic energy. How could this be used to get the general public to understand it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Facing a Dire Storm Forecast in Florida, Officials Delayed Evacuation https://nyti.ms/3SKlqzP "But while officials along much of that coastline responded with orders to evacuate on Monday, emergency managers in Lee County held off, pondering during the day whether to tell people to flee, but then deciding to see how the forecast evolved overnight." This is pretty damming if its the whole story I sincerely hope the media is exaggerating that story or they reported BS and didn’t do their homework like always 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Some of the Cat 5 landfall talk seems pretty silly. It may have been a cat 5 a few hours west of landfall in the western eyewall, but there was no evidence of it being a cat 5 at landfall that I saw. Michael actually had near 140 kt SFMR near landfall. At least one of the reasons they didn't upgrade operationally for Michael was that the SFMR does have a high bias in shallow water. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: I sincerely hope the media is exaggerating that story or they reported BS and didn’t do their homework like always I'm with ya. There's definately political undertones, however, at first glance there appears to be some truth to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Some of the Cat 5 landfall talk seems pretty silly. It may have been a cat 5 a few hours west of landfall in the western eyewall, but there was no evidence of it being a cat 5 at landfall that I saw. Michael actually had near 140 kt SFMR near landfall. At least one of the reasons they didn't upgrade operationally for Michael was that the SFMR does have a high bias in shallow water. I agree. Ian likely hit Cat 5 just prior LF, however, there was nothing at LF - in my opinion- to suggest he was a cat 5 at LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Ian was 47TJ while Charley was only 7TJ. Also Ian was moving at about 8mph while Charley was moving close to 20. That combined with size made a big difference in storm duration. https://www.rms.com/blog/2018/10/19/comparing-major-hurricane-michael-to-recent-gulf-hurricanes-using-integrated-kinetic-energy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Some of the Cat 5 landfall talk seems pretty silly. It may have been a cat 5 a few hours west of landfall in the western eyewall, but there was no evidence of it being a cat 5 at landfall that I saw. Michael actually had near 140 kt SFMR near landfall. At least one of the reasons they didn't upgrade operationally for Michael was that the SFMR does have a high bias in shallow water. Fairly certain there’s been questions with Michael too. I remember when Tim Marshall surveyed the damage after Michael he noted he couldn’t find proof winds ever exceeded 140mph. His survey didn’t yield any definitive proof either and that was because as he noted a lot of the structures in the panhandle are pre-1995 and were constructed poorly. With Ian, he caused catastrophic damage to an area that has modern building codes and an area that was rebuilt after Charley. We will see what his survey says and what NOAA decides to do in the months to come. In the end NOAA went against the survey and still rated Michael a Cat 5. Also we are still not seeing the whole picture with Ian and it’s still in the early stages of the aftermath. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Anyone have a current death toll from Ian? The numbers I've been finding seem to be outdated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Anyone have a current death toll from Ian? The numbers I've been finding seem to be outdated. CNN’s current count is 64 with an update of 35 from Lee County today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, gymengineer said: CNN’s current count is 64 with an update of 35 from Lee County today. From what I understand official numbers are not updated until next of kin are notified. So it probably will still go up some more, but not at much as the Lee County Sheriff was suggesting the morning after the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida. Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall. Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way. We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, MANDA said: Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida. Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall. Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way. We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3. Seen a new estimate today, $63 billion for Florida. Again that’s mostly for damage caused in SW FL and not the flooding damage through central and eastern sections of the state. I’m curious as to the total cost Ian will have inflicted overall. 2 US landfalls with extensive flooding which should put him in the Top-3 for US hurricanes. And there’s Cuba and we still don’t know a lot about his impacts down there yet. Ian has a shot at being one of the costliest Atlantic hurricanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 49 minutes ago, MANDA said: Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida. Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall. Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way. We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3. With the possibility of a major real estate downturn, especially in the ballooned pricing of Florida, there is a chance many of those houses are not rebuilt/fixed in the near term....especially the non insured and ocean facing ones. During the housing downturn of 2008 the houses on Anna Maria Island were sold for huge discounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellice Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings. But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous. Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Pellice said: Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings. But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous. Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future. Yea, I think the argument is sort of silly. Sanibel is getting swamped with any decent Hurricane taking a similar path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls: 0Z 9/25: ICON Venice CMC Cedar Key GFS Destin Euro Sarasota UKMET Port Charlotte 12Z 9/25: ICON Sarasota CMC Apalachee Bay GFS Apalachee Bay Euro Tampa UKMET Venice 0Z 9/26: ICON Venice CMC Apalachee Bay GFS Apalachee Bay Euro Cedar Key UKMET Port Charlotte 12Z 9/26: ICON Tampa CMC Apalachicola GFS Tampa Euro Big Bend UKMET Port Charlotte 0Z 9/27: ICON Venice CMC Big Bend GFS Sarasota Euro Venice UKMET just N of Ft Myers 12Z 9/27: ICON Port Charlotte CMC Tampa GFS just N of Port Charlotte Euro Port Charlotte UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers 0Z 9/28: ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte CMC Venice GFS Port Charlotte Euro Port Charlotte UKMET Port Charlotte My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs: UKMET A- ICON B Euro C- GFS D CMC F 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Yea the UKMET won this storm by miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 39 minutes ago, Pellice said: Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings. But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous. Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future. And here presents another difficulty no matter what we use: saffir simpson, IKE, severity index, etc. The media is problem #1 here. They misunderstand how hurricanes are rated by the SS and often times only focus on gusts without explaining sustained winds and how they are dangerous. Another issue are all these media outlets incorporating their own rating scales (low, medium, high/minor, moderate, extreme). Often they will create their own tracks/paths for these storms and it either conflicts with what the NHC has and/or they overlay their forecast on top of NHC's cone. The media also does a poor job concerning the cone NHC uses because they don't use it properly and explain to their audience what the cone actually is. Impacts are felt outside the cone and the media makes it seem its the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 46 minutes ago, Pellice said: Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings. But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous. Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future. And just like Katrina, outside of politics and politicians, the media is at fault here with Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Another issue was the media was so focused on the possibly of a direct hit on Tampa. Once Ian kept moving to the right of the track and it was clear Tampa was going to avoid the direct hit/surge, the "hype train" of how dangerous Ian could be got dialed down a bit. Obviously the intensification the night before landfall that wasn't forecasted also played a role as far as danger perception to the public. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Another issue was the media was so focused on the possibly of a direct hit on Tampa. Once Ian kept moving to the right of the track and it was clear Tampa was going to avoid the direct hit/surge, the "hype train" of how dangerous Ian could be got dialed down a bit. Obviously the intensification the night before landfall that wasn't forecasted also played a role as far as danger perception to the public. I remember with Katrina the media paid little mind to MS/AL coastline ahead of Katrina. When we started to see the devastation, of course the media started changing their tone. Just similar mistakes being made here, media only out for the hype/ratings and hone in on major cities without covering all the areas to be impacted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 hours ago, MANDA said: Not to at all diminish the death toll, one is too many but I think this will likely be the costliest hurricane to hit Florida. Populated area, slow moving and intense at landfall. Swath of flooding as it crossed the state and some very expensive real estate in the way. We'll see hot it goes but for certain will fall into the top 3. It would seem the loss of life with Ian in the US will be +- some 1700 fewer souls lost than Katrina. 1836 is Katrina's official death toll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 6 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: I sincerely hope the media is exaggerating that story or they reported BS and didn’t do their homework like always There’s not My whole family is in Cape Coral so I was watching the local news and reading the local newspaper down there starting last Sunday and was aghast that they decided to have school on Monday. It was like “no big deal, folks… carry on” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 I almost never communicate with them so I completely forgot that I know an older couple who lives in Estero, FL, which is between Fort Myers and Naples. They live a couple miles or so from the Gulf and have a little elevation, so they didn't evacuate. All in all they fared well, but I'm sure there are people who died in that town. Just depends where you're at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, dan11295 said: Another issue was the media was so focused on the possibly of a direct hit on Tampa. Once Ian kept moving to the right of the track and it was clear Tampa was going to avoid the direct hit/surge, the "hype train" of how dangerous Ian could be got dialed down a bit. Obviously the intensification the night before landfall that wasn't forecasted also played a role as far as danger perception to the public. Agree with this. And the sad part to me is that a lot of people actually evacuated from Tampa to Fort Myers. If the message from the beginning had been "no where on the west coast of Florida is safe" I wonder how different the outcome would have been. Obviously I have no clue if a Tampa evacuee lost their life or not. But that doesnt matter to my point. The message should have been "leave the Florida west coast now". 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 This may just be a Global roll call but still...lets look at this piece of info bolded and extra category below. 3 hours ago, GaWx said: 0Z 9/25: ICON Venice CMC Cedar Key GFS Destin Euro Sarasota UKMET Port Charlotte NAM Naples 0Z 9/25: Which model above had the storm leaving the Florida coast south of Daytona? Nam (Do not have the Euro that far back but none of the others did except maybe the Euro) Nam Grade: B+ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 9 hours ago, Pellice said: Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings. But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous. Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future. They're just looking for any excuse so they don't have to blame themselves. There's pretty much no difference between a 155mph category 4 and a 160mph category 5 hurricane. Plus just knowing the category number isn't always enough information of what you should do or how you should prepare. This is just them refusing to admit their mistakes and the fact they didn't bother to look at information of what this storm was capable of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 16 hours ago, USCG RS said: I agree. Ian likely hit Cat 5 just prior LF, however, there was nothing at LF - in my opinion- to suggest he was a cat 5 at LF. It really is splitting hairs though. I find it ridiculous that 157 mph is considered minimum for Cat 5 when the information is output in 5 mph increments. 111 mph for Cat 3 is even worse. We should just use multiple of 10s for categories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 12 hours ago, Pellice said: Hearing people on TV trying to argue that Ian "should have" been a Category 5, and maybe they would then more would have heeded warnings. But I think it's important to reinforce the idea that hurricanes don't have to be "Cat 5" to be lethal, that lower designations are also dangerous. Ian will be an important example to be cited in the future. Question is when will people learn the lessons these storms are trying to teach us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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