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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I think we have landfall


 What you see on radar is not the surface center. That is some kind of eddy. The center was near the 41004 buoy just 1.5 hours ago and that's ~65 miles ESE of Charleston. It can't be onshore that fast.

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4 hours ago, MANDA said:

I agree.  Big sprawling ocean storm bumping up against strong high pressure aiding in keeping the winds up.  No real change as far as impacts no matter what we call it but nothing tropical about this in my opinion.

I think it's a stretch to suggest there are no tropical characteristics remaining whatsoever.  If that were the case, I don't think it would weaken over land as quickly as what's being progged.

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 I'm guessing, based on it being near the 32.5N, 79.1W buoy at 11:30 AM, that landfall will be in the upper part of the SC coast around mid-afternoon. If Ian continues mainly northward and doesn't landfall til near Myrtle Beach, it could be as late as ~4 PM. But if it turns left sharply toward Georgetown, it could landfall as early as ~2PM.

 Looking at the latest reports from the SC coast, the SLP is now lowest and falling most rapidly at Georgetown (ignore the Charleston Waterfront Park SLP, which always runs way lower than nearby stations and is thus bogus). As of 12:35 PM, it was 29.13"/986 mb. An hour earlier it was at 29.25" and two hours earlier it was at 29.36":

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge

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2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I'm guessing, based on it being near the 32.5N, 79.1W buoy at 11:30 AM, that landfall will be in the upper part of the SC coast around mid-afternoon. If Ian continues mainly northward and doesn't landfall til near Myrtle Beach, it could be as late as ~4 PM. But if it turns left sharply toward Georgetown, it could landfall as early as ~2PM.

 Looking at the latest reports from the SC coast, the SLP is now lowest and falling most rapidly at Georgetown (ignore the Charleston Waterfront Park SLP, which always runs way lower than nearby stations and is thus bogus). As of 12:35 PM, it was 29.13"/986 mb. An hour earlier it was at 29.25" and two hours earlier it was at 29.36":

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge

Dr. Knabb just declared landfall on the weather channel, just southwest of McLellansville

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21 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Dr. Knabb just declared landfall on the weather channel, just southwest of McLellansville

Weird. That means that the LLC turned sharply left and moved ~25 mph since 2 hours ago, when it was near the 41004 buoy 50 miles away!

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3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Josh just said he found the center inland near Awendaw on Twitter. 985mb currently 

A later tweet by him has a new center reading of 983 mb. As Dr. Knabb pointed out, the wind direction at Georgetown would shift upon the actual landfall. We’ll wait for the NHC’s verdict. 

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23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It did turn left sharply. 

 

15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Josh just said he found the center inland on Twitter 

If the main center really came inland like Dr. Knabb said, just SW of McClellanville, which is ~25 miles SW of Georgetown, why are the winds at Georgetown still strong from the north? A low to its SW would be giving G'town SE to E winds, not N winds. Also, the SLP is still falling rapidly there at 29.10" as of 1:35 PM.  

 

 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge

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21 confirmed deaths in FL so far (no official deaths in yet from Lee County). Keep in mind that Lee County is by far the largest of the counties mentioned with close to 800,000 residents. Charlotte County is around 200,000. Polk is around 700,000, though it is inland. Collier County about 400,000.

As of Friday morning, there were 12 deaths in Charlotte County believed to be tied with the hurricane; eight in Collier County and one in Polk County, according to state officials. Officials, however, did not speculate the possible number of fatalities in badly-hit Lee County, 

The state, aided by federal and local responders, has performed more than 700 rescues thus far and made contact with 3,000 people who sheltered in place throughout the massive storm

In one particularly grim incident, a rescue diver in an unspecified county encountered a home with water over its rooftop. Inside, there appeared to be “human remains” but officials won’t be able to confirm anything until the flood waters reside, Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said Friday.

One of the state’s top priorities as of Friday is working with federal and local officials to repair the water main break in Lee County, DeSantis said. The water main damage means that no water is currently getting to the county and its 750,000-plus residents. 

Hardee County is almost completely powerless while Charlotte and Lee counties are facing outages of roughly 85 percent. About 80 percent of customers are without power in DeSoto County while Sarasota, Collier and Manatee counties have about 50 percent of their electricity in operation.

Schools in Lee, Charlotte and Collier counties could be closed even longer. Officials in Lee County are even unable to update the school district website due to outages.

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55 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think it's a stretch to suggest there are no tropical characteristics remaining whatsoever.  If that were the case, I don't think it would weaken over land as quickly as what's being progged.

Does it matter if it has tropical characteristics?  If it has hurricane winds, its a hurricane

 

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According to NHC not quite on land yet.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...THE CENTER OF IAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH 
FLOODING LASHING THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Neuse River North Carolina
* St. Johns River Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 79.1 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 15 mph (24 km/h).  Ian is forecast to turn toward 
the north-northwest by tonight and will move inland across 
eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and 
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Ian should weaken rapidly after landfall soon and 
transition into a post-tropical cyclone overnight.  Ian should 
dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).  A WeatherFlow station at Morris Island 
Lighthouse recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.
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20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

If the main center really came inland like Dr. Knabb said, just SW of McClellanville, which is ~25 miles SW of Georgetown, why are the winds at Georgetown still strong from the north? A low to its SW would be giving G'town SE to E winds, not N winds. Also, the SLP is still falling rapidly there at 29.10" as of 1:35 PM.  

 

 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=kgge

That’s a break for Georgetown then. Their high tide was at 1pm. 

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1 minute ago, RamblinRed said:
According to NHC not quite on land yet.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...THE CENTER OF IAN IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH 
FLOODING LASHING THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Neuse River North Carolina
* St. Johns River Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico River
* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located
near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 79.1 West. Ian is moving toward
the north near 15 mph (24 km/h).  Ian is forecast to turn toward 
the north-northwest by tonight and will move inland across 
eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and 
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Ian should weaken rapidly after landfall soon and 
transition into a post-tropical cyclone overnight.  Ian should 
dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).  A WeatherFlow station at Morris Island 
Lighthouse recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.

977 so now a Cat 2 mb gauge wise.   That was called impossible yesterday. 

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1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Winds are now strong from the NW at Georgetown with SLP falling even more rapidly. It doesn't jibe with what Josh and Dr Knabb said.

I didn’t hear Dr. Knabb say what the poster claimed he said and I’ve had the channel on nonstop. He was saying landfall could be any moment, not that Ian had made landfall.

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1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

I didn’t hear Dr. Knabb say what the poster claimed he said and I’ve had the channel on nonstop. He was saying landfall could be any moment, not that Ian had made landfall.

Thanks for the clarification. And now the NHC just said that it is hours from landfall. Makes much more sense.

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