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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Still a warm core, as long as it stays a warm core it'll be a tropical cyclone. 

Correct, the hybrid definition fits since it's also entangled in the trough and lacks a core. 

I do think if it had a couple days it might try to rebuild a core. It will try though hence the models intensifying it before landfall. 

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Sandy had warm core at landfall, it was still hybrid and some station, I can't remember which, reported a sustained 64 knots in Suffolk County before NHC downgraded it and stopped advisories.

 

The whole Sandy thing is why NHC was issuing advisories on Fiona through Canadian landfall.

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7 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

what's the best way to see if it's warm or cold core?  I know the models have a phase diagram that will tell you, but is there empirical data you can look at?

There is actually. Folks have posted a link to a website that takes various remote sensing and NWP data and uses that to classify a storm on an X / Y plot as warm or cold core. I don't know the link, but it's a useful tool and would probably be a good visual explainer.

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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There is actually. Folks have posted a link to a website that takes various remote sensing and NWP data and uses that to classify a storm on an X / Y plot as warm or cold core. I don't know the link, but it's a useful tool and would probably be a good visual explainer.

Took some digging but finally found it. Seems to be an asymmetric warm core for now

1.phase1.png

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Very interesting satellite view right now.  The LL circulation is going ESE.  Thunderstorms seem to be developing near the center.  This will be interesting to see how this plays out.  I will be curious to see what the reconnaissance flight finds out.

Saw this too. Does not appear the LLC is moving with a northerly component at all on radar. Very weird

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Recon will report back whether it is warm core or not.  Time sensitive, what looks like a cold front approaching the center on vis satellite probably is te cold front approaching the core per a quick glance at SPC meso analysis.  I assume the warm core could occlude, and be warm core at flight level for a while.

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1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Agreed with the sentiment expressed earlier by @GaWx, feel like a more east landfall is the way. Also those rain bands just offshore north of the center seem really nasty and probably have a broad field of 50 knot+ winds.

 The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

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10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The NHC adjusted the SC landfall slightly from Charleston on the 11 AM track to 20 miles NE of Charleston on the 5 PM track.

 Will it end up landfalling further NE than that? I had said in my prior post that I was favoring the 12Z UKMET's just S of Myrtle Beach over the 1Z Euro's just S of Charleston based on the 2 PM EDT actual of 28.9N, 80.0W, as compared to the 2 PM of the UK/Euro as it then matched the UKMET. But let's now add the 5 PM location to the mix: 

 NHC actual locations:

 11 AM 28.7N, 80.4W

  2 PM 28.9N, 80.0W

  5 PM 29.3N, 79.9W

  So, realizing that wobbling can cause deception as regards the heading, note the sharp directional change for 2 PM-5 PM vs the prior 3 hours. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it moved ENE. But from 2 PM to 5 PM, it moved NNE. The 12Z UKMET gets it to 79.4W as of 8PM vs the 12Z Euro's 79.9W. IF Ian has really turned NNE for good, it won't make it to 79.4 at 8 PM and the Euro 79.9 may end up closer at 8 PM. If the Euro ends up closer, then I'd probably change my prediction from favoring the 12Z UKMET to favoring the 12Z Euro for the track to SC, which would mean closer to Charleston than Myrtle Beach.

And in between the two gets you to model consensus ne of Charleston 

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