Hurricane Ian

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

Well, it hasn't hit SC as a Cat 1 yet. Never underestimate dry air and sheer once north of FL.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

Thing is the tech is pretty damn astounding at this point. We are at a point in time where Canes can be forecast before they even form. And the track of those unformed canes can be pretty well tracked out days in advance. I dont know how they can do much better than they do now. 

[BxEngine]

29 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Yeah, where are the admins?

Working. Real jobs. With responsibilities. Not babysitting pathetic arguments on a weather forum. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Well, it hasn't hit SC as a Cat 1 yet. Never underestimate dry air and sheer once north of FL.

Ok, rephrase, come off Florida at all.    It is not a shot at the NHC it is just not easy to forecast stuff like this with accuracy.  The tech did not get it right until a day or two ago. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Thing is the tech is pretty damn astounding at this point. We are at a point in time where Canes can be forecast before they even form. And the track of those unformed canes can be pretty well tracked out days in advance. I dont know how they can do much better than they do now. 

It is great but nothing showed Ian escaping like this so NHC's track was solidly over land after landfall. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

This is a terrible post, mostly in part because of the last sentence. First off, since day 1 the right side of the NHC cone was of the eastern Florida coast. In terms of having Ian go off the coast and hitting SC/NC early on they didn't have that (or anyone) because there was no reason to do so and this was looking well into the longer range on the forecasting side. The range of the cone always indicated this was a possibility. 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

The 5pm advisory on Tuesday had a TS off the coast of Georgia at Day3 (2pm today). Anything beyond Day 3 should be taken with a grain of salt. You should know that.

[stockmanjr]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

The 5pm advisory on Tuesday had a TS off the coast of Georgia at Day3. Anything beyond Day 3 should be taken with a grain of salt. You should know that.

Someone on a travel message board insisted to me that the "Smart Money" was following a forecast 192hrs out...

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

The 5pm advisory on Tuesday had a TS off the coast of Georgia at Day3. Anything beyond Day 3 should be taken with a grain of salt. You should know that.

Especially in these situations where there is a quite a bit of uncertainty present and you have so many factors which will be an influence.

[GaWx]

The UKMET, the most accurate model for Ian since the 0Z Sept 25th run, has it again landfalling well NE of Charleston on the 12Z. The 0Z had it landfalling just SW of Georgetown. This run has the center landfalling a good bit further NE than the 0Z, 25 miles NE of Georgetown/just SW of Myrtle Beach:

TROPICAL STORM IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N  80.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 29.09.2022    0  28.4N  80.6W      989            46
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   12  29.7N  79.4W      984            54
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   24  31.7N  79.0W      975            63
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   36  34.7N  79.2W      987            37
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   48  36.1N  79.3W     1002            28
    0000UTC 02.10.2022   60  37.4N  78.8W     1008            21
    1200UTC 02.10.2022   72              CEASED TRACKING

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

I feel like a lot of this region will receive Hurricane Matthew esque impacts if not worse.

This will be rough for SC. Huge area of TS to minimal hurricane winds will move a lot of water. It's more the size of the high wind area vs the strength of the wind that determines the surge. That plus any harbors/rivers to funnel it in which SC especially near Charleston has plenty of. 

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I believe that he was referring to the media and not the storms

Well if I misunderstood misinterpreted his post…I apologize for that. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Well…..there’s a likely 20 that can be added to the death toll

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This is a terrible post, mostly in part because of the last sentence. First off, since day 1 the right side of the NHC cone was of the eastern Florida coast. In terms of having Ian go off the coast and hitting SC/NC early on they didn't have that (or anyone) because there was no reason to do so and this was looking well into the longer range on the forecasting side. The range of the cone always indicated this was a possibility. 

I was looking at the NHC track just two days ago, not the cone.   My point was that humans cannot guess things such as Ian escaping Florida (well they guess but that is not really a forecast) so their track was based on modeled outcomes.  I am defending the NHC because they forecast the best they could with the information they had.  People are debating landfall forecasts so this was a comment on the eventual track post landfall.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Yesterday's POD for today has the first flight this evening, I assume based on forecast of a later exit from Florida.  Anybody know how quickly they can task a plane?  Data before the 11 pm EDT might be helpful to NHC.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is also pretty far NE too into SC.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This will be rough for SC. Huge area of TS to minimal hurricane winds will move a lot of water. It's more the size of the high wind area vs the strength of the wind that determines the surge. That plus any harbors/rivers to funnel it in which SC especially near Charleston has plenty of. 

Yeah the surge will be a problem for a big chunk of real estate. 

I wonder if people are that concerned though since it'll only be a Cat 1.

[KChuck]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech. 

Most cane models only worry about going out 3 days for details. That's why past 3 days is hatched in the maps. Do you follow the 348 hour GFS model to plan your picnics and vacations? 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Especially in these situations where there is a quite a bit of uncertainty present and you have so many factors which will be an influence.

People here are debating a forecasted track of Ian from last week which is well beyond 3 days.  Here is an NHC forecast from 48-60 hours ago.    If we are going to talk cone then there is not much to discuss.  I thought the disco was on actual landfall and track of the core.   No model that I noticed had Ian escaping Florida until a couple days ago which explains the track the NHC was putting forth.  

 

 

[Hotair]

19 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

Clearwater Beach barrier island is the biggest disaster waiting to happen and they got very lucky with Ian. They have built every inch of that barrier island. New homes, condos, hotels, restaurants, etc. Right on the Gulf, on the inlet, on all the waterways and the beach there is very narrow.

Everyone is in on it.  When you can get flood insurance in a high risk area in Florida for half of what it costs in say Connecticut, people build knowing their investment is more or less secure through tax payer subsidies 

surge is now forecast along the entire East coast 

[MattPetrulli]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS is also pretty far NE too into SC.

Looking like it's jogging a little more east on radar too. As it has for its entire life cycle, the trend on globals has been east too. Starting to think we can peak at 70-75 knots with more east jogs. 

[Tezeta]

3 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Everyone is in on it.  When you can get flood insurance in a high risk area in Florida for half of what it costs in say Connecticut, people build knowing their investment is more or less secure through tax payer subsidies 

surge is now forecast along the entire East coast 

I am sure the costs will be socialized again again when insurance companies go belly up. Taxpayers are definitely going to have to pony up for all the destroyed rental properties and second homes down there. 

[ScottB]

4 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Everyone is in on it.  When you can get flood insurance in a high risk area in Florida for half of what it costs in say Connecticut, people build knowing their investment is more or less secure through tax payer subsidies 

surge is now forecast along the entire East coast 

Feel like that 4-7 is going to slide further north to the SC/NC border. Charleston/Myrtle Beach will probably get the brunt of it. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

People here are debating a forecasted track of Ian from last week which is well beyond 3 days.  Here is an NHC forecast from 48-60 hours ago. 

 

The real question is why 2 public facing data products provide 2 different possibilities at the same time -- one product says center of circulation of a major could be directly overhead (and has warned of that possibility for a week), the other says expect tropical storm conditions, you're not getting a direct hit. But that's a discussion for the banter thread.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was looking at the NHC track just two days ago, not the cone.   My point was that humans cannot guess things such as Ian escaping Florida (well they guess but that is not really a forecast) so their track was based on modeled outcomes.  I am defending the NHC because they forecast the best they could with the information they had.  People are debating landfall forecasts so this was a comment on the eventual track post landfall.

 

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

People here are debating a forecasted track of Ian from last week which is well beyond 3 days.  Here is an NHC forecast from 48-60 hours ago. 

 

 

Gotcha...I think I see what you're saying now. 

 

[GaWx]

Based on the continued movement of Ian east of the forecast track and the trend of models landfalling further and further NE, I think it will landfall well northeast of Charleston and probably northeast of Georgetown. I'm currently thinking Myrtle Beach to Wilmington area.

[Normandy]

the NHC only mistake was giving the GFS credence.  Never in the history of weather has a major hurricane and a trough behaved like the GFS was forecasting.  All of the other models eventually caught on and the GFS was still adamant even as it was approach Cuba.  If the GFS is alone, it’s wrong.

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Gotcha...I think I see what you're saying now. 

 

I was trying to defend the NHC and say that if you have a suite of models of which almost none show a landfall/track at a certain place (in this case a wide loop back into the Atlantic) you are probably not going to go off on your own and suggest something that has no backing.  We all know that the models can change drastically run to run and the NHC/NWS relies heavily on them as forecasting is much better than the alternative of not using them.   

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Normandy said:

the NHC only mistake was giving the GFS credence.  Never in the history of weather has a major hurricane and a trough behaved like the GFS was forecasting.  All of the other models eventually caught on and the GFS was still adamant even as it was approach Cuba.  If the GFS is alone, it’s wrong.

Wasn't it performing better than the Euro earlier on?

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It’s already 70 mph and high end TS gusts are still happening in NE FL so it wouldn’t be a stretch at all for this to reach 80-85mph before landfall. There’s a lot of dry air and shear around with a disrupted core so it won’t come back more than that. 

This has all the hallmarks of a STC. The wind limits are not in surface pressure, but in radius. Broader impacts.