Hurricane Ian

[Euripides]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this shouldn't be allowed

This. Just a disaster waiting to happen.

Even a small tsunami will take all of that out.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this shouldn't be allowed

Especially if there is ANY assistance in rebuilding it.   Self insured only. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

I'm not in Florida either so IDK what the local news was saying.  But having lived in SE Louisiana most of my life, local news and government always trumpeted the worse possible scenario.  So much so that when the big one actually did come, many were shocked at what the real deal can bring.

I think social media plays a part in this too.  How many times have we all rolled our eyes at people posting those 2' snowstorm 5-day model runs on Facebook and such that rarely verifies?  Or the 200mph 3K NAM for a hurricane? 

Which was mentioned in the post that set this conversation off. Social media is terrible. Muddies the information and causes distrust elsewhere.

3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

In the middle of the banter.

yall will be okay. 

[Tezeta]

22 minutes ago, f2tornado said:

Straight out of a talking points memo? A hurricane is weather, just like when someone in Chicago asks about that global warming when it's 20 below. That's weather too. Sea level rise is a worthy discussion, but not here, though I doubt the 2mm/yr rise changed the outcome much here. 

How are you a red tagger and don’t understand how sea level rise is an existential threat to lots of Florida real estate?

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The complacency and hubris is the killer. Yeah let's just build a city partially underwater. Let's build floating neighborhoods in a known hurricane region. 

But blocking patterns and warmer sea surface temperatures have elevated surge/flooding. Hurricanes peaking before landfall like Michael was unheard of. 

Agreed 100%. 

But the peaking before landfall isn’t unheard of but it seems more common especially in the last 10 years. Camille 1969 slammed into the N Gulf as a Cat 5. 

S FL’s population explosion was a catastrophe waiting to happen. And you can make building codes as tough as you want, people will still die when 6-10 feet of water comes charging through the neighborhood. 

The next one is the PBI to MIA stretch. Way overdue for a massive strike and even north of West Palm Beach is becoming overdeveloped. Thankfully that stretch isn’t too surge prone but when so many live just over sea level it doesn’t matter. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Maybe global warming is a good thing? Makes hurricane deaths/injuries seem like nothing in comparison

https://icyroadsafety.com/fatalitystats.shtml

[Hailstoned]

47 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth.  It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just yap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 

He's absolutely correct. Willful ignorance; distrust of science, lack of critical thinking skills; not learning from the past, etc. etc... This is how you reap the whirlwind...

[mob1]

While it probably doesn't matter in regards to frequency of storms, there are definitely some climate factors that can be directly attributed to stronger storms. An easy one is heavy rainfall and flash flooding, though that's not what's being discussed here. 

 

Either way, people have to use common sense and trust that the NWS/NHC has nothing but their best interests in mind and even if they're not perfect (weather isn't en exact science) you should probably still take their warnings seriously. 

 

If you evacuated and your city/town was mostly or completely spared, just thank the lucky stars and move on. Distrust for government agencies is at an all-time high, and while some of it may be deserved, you don't get to complain if you're told to get out but don't. 

[ag3]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Agreed 100%. 

But the peaking before landfall isn’t unheard of but it seems more common especially in the last 10 years. Camille 1969 slammed into the N Gulf as a Cat 5. 

S FL’s population explosion was a catastrophe waiting to happen. And you can make building codes as tough as you want, people will still die when 6-10 feet of water comes charging through the neighborhood. 

The next one is the PBI to MIA stretch. Way overdue for a massive strike and even north of West Palm Beach is becoming overdeveloped. Thankfully that stretch isn’t too surge prone but when so many live just over sea level it doesn’t matter. 

 

I was just in SW Florida. Last month. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company, I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

[Wmsptwx]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

I was just in SW Florida. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

True

[dan11295]

Cape Coral is one area I haven't seen any post storm pics. Sanibel also, but that's been cut off so only going to get aerials of there for now.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Maybe global warming is a good thing? 

https://icyroadsafety.com/fatalitystats.shtml

Some places will see better weather.  Others won't.  I was skeptical, I remember Al Gore, obviously with some climatologist's input, predicting an ice free Artic by 2015 in 2007.

 

That didn't happen.  But three locations inside the Arctic Circle on 3 continents this past Summer recording all time high temps, maybe it isn't happening as quickly some people are predicting, but dismissing it out of hand is probably not the smart move.

[ag3]

2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

True

 

Clearwater Beach barrier island is the biggest disaster waiting to happen and they got very lucky with Ian. They have built every inch of that barrier island. New homes, condos, hotels, restaurants, etc. Right on the Gulf, on the inlet, on all the waterways and the beach there is very narrow.

[KChuck]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No! It’s not getting worse. Are you for real??  
 

So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
 

Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

I believe that he was referring to the media and not the storms

[Wmsptwx]

Eyewall trying to somewhat come back, Ian will not die.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

I was just in SW Florida. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

There’s already an insurance crisis in FL which I won’t get further into but I’m sure this will make much worse. 

I’m not too familiar with the Gulf FL coast, but it’s the same story in SE FL which I’ve visited many times since I have family/friends there. Every time I go it somehow gets more built up, and tons of developments around easily flooded canals/drainage ditches. I think the one thing that’ll finally stop the influx of newcomers is insane cost of living and unavailability of insurance. Basic 1 bedroom apartments are $2000+/month now without the corresponding salaries you’d get in the NE. It’s just insanity. 

[f2tornado]

3 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

How are you a red tagger and don’t understand how sea level rise is an existential threat to lots of Florida real estate?

I didn't say that. I even said it's worthy of discussion (implying it's banter thread material). But, attributing one potent hurricane to climate change during a cold ENSO phase without supporting evidence is speculative  junk "talking points" science. 

[ag3]

All hurricanes stall at one point while interacting with a front or waiting for steering current. Most of the time it's not right next to land and usually over the Gulf or Caribbean.

Ian just happened to stall in the worst possible spot possible. Allowed for rapid intensification right before landfall and constant westerly flow for anyone south of the eye.

Very bad luck lately with Michael, Ian and Dorian (for Bahamas).

[Wmsptwx]

2 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I believe that he was referring to the media and not the storms

Bingo.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

It isn't just social media, NBC will have their expert, Al Roker, on about every other night.   Often with some simulated radar forecast.  Rain or heatwaves in California, it will make the news. The expected thunderstorms in an area with a SLIGHT RISK, if in the Northeast, makes the nightly news.

 

We don't have enough hurricanes locally to judge, but even a remote possibility of ice or snow will be on the commercials for the local news.  I don't know how many icing or snow events we haven't had, butit several.

[Wmsptwx]

Just now, ag3 said:

All hurricanes stall at one point while waiting while interacting with a front or waiting for steering current. Most of the time it's not right nect to land and over the Gulf or Caribbean.

Ian just happened to stall in the worst possible spot possible. Allowed for rapid intensification right before landfall and constant easterly flow for anyone south of the eye.

Very bad luck.

Indeed…and as you said before, it hit an area that is wayyyy overbuilt for it’s circumstances.

[floridapirate]

7 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

I was just in SW Florida. Last month. From Clearwater Beach to Captiva. Visited all of it and made stops at several of the pristine beaches. The entire time I was thinking, I cant believe what they have built on these barrier islands. It was a disaster waiting to happen. They got complacent and built homes, condos and beachfront buildings where they should not have been.

I'm curious to see if they rebuild to the same extent. If I'm an insurance company, I would never again cover any structure on those barrier Islands and if I did, the premium would be tens of thousands a year.

This isnt unique to Florida, every barrier island on any body of water is experiencing the same thing.

[MattPetrulli]

I feel like a lot of this region will receive Hurricane Matthew esque impacts if not worse.

[NeffsvilleWx]

Clocked the highest gust so far IMBY - 36 mph @ 12:15.

[ag3]

2 minutes ago, floridapirate said:

This isnt unique to Florida, every barrier island on any body of water is experiencing the same thing.

 

I didn't see this as much in SC or NC and here on Long Island, it's only in some areas.

Florida was built like a European waterfront, except that in Florida a cat 4 or 5 hurricane can wipe it out in hours.

[laferri2]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Eyewall trying to somewhat come back, Ian will not die.

Just based on how stubborn this storm is, I fully expect Ian to crawl up to a low-end Cat 2 before it makes landfall again.

Or maybe just start doing donuts around Florida. 

[KChuck]

26 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I assume the FSU Super Ensemble is no more?  It was a model that 'learned' from past biases shown in various models and then weighted the models that performed the best highest is creating the ensemble.  I get the impression the TVCN is just an ensemble.  I could be wrong.

I doubt that an ensemble that learns from past biases is valuable anymore when the statisticians are constantly tweaking the models and their biases change

[Wmsptwx]

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

I didn't see this as much in SC or NC and here on Long Island, it's only in some areas.

Florida was built like a European waterfront, except that in Florida a cat 4 or 5 hurricane can wipe it out in hours.

Yeah you’re right on this, and about Florida having the greatest potential of a catastrophic cane.

[OceanStWx]

Regarding track forecasts, keep in mind too that with northward moving TCs around FL that an east/west miss of 30 miles can result in landfall 100 miles farther away along the north/south oriented coasts. Again, specifically talking landfall location here, not cone forecasts.

[Bubbler86]

How many of NHC's maps had Ian coming off Florida and hitting SC/NC as a Hurricane?   I doubt any because no model suggested that until some unnamed models started showing it 2-3 days ago.  NHC is as good as the tech.