Hurricane Ian

[twister4999]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Overall I have a ton of respect for the NHC crew, my one nitpick revolves around the construction of the cone. It's only designed to capture 2/3 of the average track error over the last 5 years. As forecasts have improved the cone gets smaller. What it doesn't do is factor in situations where there is larger than normal forecast uncertainty. I would love to see a little more of that uncertainty factored into forecasts.

Totally agree. And like you, I have a large amount of respect for them. I hope my post didn’t come across as hating on them. Their forecast accuracy has improved remarkably over the last two decades. Having said that, I do believe I am correct with my critiques for this particular storm. I don’t see this as such a monumental victory of a forecast as I’m seeing from some on here or on social media. Just my two cents of course! 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

To be fair, Ian never once strayed outside the cone (looking back at the graphics archive). I think there's a lot to be done in terms of communicating probability of different on the ground impacts. The general public has a hard time grasping what to expect.

One big problem is the general public wants absolutes and don't care about the "probability" and don't even understand how probability works to begin with.

[geddyweather]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

As we've seen the last several years there is not much you can do sometimes when it comes to intensity. Now model intensity guidance had been very aggressive in this becoming a category 4 hurricane but as we got closure there actually became a bit more in the way of spread regarding this and for good measures. 

... 

I wish I could scream this from the rooftops.

Plus, in regards to the ERC, there is so much uncertainty in regards to the efficiency and duration of this process that it could have had a number of different impacts on the storm. If the process takes a day or 2 complete vs just 12-18 hours, does it reach 155mph? If the eyewall never closes back up, does dry air + shear become a more prominent factor? What happens if the core doesn't double in size? How do any of these impact the system track? Etc etc etc...

The reality is we had a unique mixture of synoptic variables here compared to other Gulf storms which resulted in significant impacts to both track and intensity forecasts. As such the more moving pieces you inject into forecasts like this, the wider your envelope of outcome becomes even when in close range. 

[Tezeta]

We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth.  It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just yap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 

[Wmsptwx]

Just now, Tezeta said:

We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth.  It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just tap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 

And we will be told we’re politicizing everything and to shut up and have compassion for asking people to have common sense.

[MANDA]

As bad as some of these pictures are I don't think this is the worst of it.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11261707/Monster-Hurricane-Ian-devastates-Florida-leaving-2million-without-power-trapped-homes.html

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

I wish I could scream this from the rooftops.

Plus, in regards to the ERC, there is so much uncertainty in regards to the efficiency and duration of this process that it could have had a number of different impacts on the storm. If the process takes a day or 2 complete vs just 12-18 hours, does it reach 155mph? If the eyewall never closes back up, does dry air + shear become a more prominent factor? What happens if the core doesn't double in size? How do any of these impact the system track? Etc etc etc...

The reality is we had a unique mixture of synoptic variables here compared to other Gulf storms which resulted in significant impacts to both track and intensity forecasts. As such the more moving pieces you inject into forecasts like this, the wider your envelope of outcome becomes even when in close range. 

Yup. 

ERC's are very difficult. Where there has been enough research conducted to build a fundamental understanding and knowledge of what these mean for storms, forecast models don't handle those processes very well...and it has nothing to do with models "being bad"...they just aren't sophisticated enough yet to derive the processes. 

While we may see one is occurring and can draw conclusions there really is no way to say, "this is def going to be cat 4 or cat 5". 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

To be fair, Ian never once strayed outside the cone as far as landfall point (looking back at the graphics archive). I think there's a lot to be done in terms of communicating probability of different on the ground impacts. The general public has a hard time grasping what to expect.

I think overall it was a pretty good forecast, unfortunately most people only focus on the center of the cone and not the edges. 

I just wish cones could be forward looking, instead of backward looking. If we had a good way to measure or index forecast uncertainty they could probably fairly easily adjusted cone radius to capture 75% or 90% of past errors rather than 67% for example. 

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, floridapirate said:

Well, that still will happen.  Do you think residents of Tampa and north will be evacuating the next time around when they got minimal effects?  Highly doubt it.

Well you are just assuming now, but the earlier posts of just warning the whole cone would do far more harm than good.

[wncsnow]

I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing another Ian ever. Have to be getting low on I names at this point. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well you are just assuming now, but the earlier posts of just warning the whole cone would do far more harm than good.

Plus if people are going to base such a decision because of a past experience that's just foolish on their part. 

[KPITSnow]

32 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

The entire Florida Peninsula was in that cone. 

What’s your point? The angle of approach facilitated that? 

[Drummer]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing another Ian ever. Have to be getting low on I names at this point. 

Maybe just start with the letter B or C to offset the alphabet lol

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well you are just assuming now, but the earlier posts of just warning the whole cone would do far more harm than good.

It's also a difference between a deterministic forecast (watch/warning) vs. a more probabilistic forecast (past track forecast error/cone).

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing another Ian ever. Have to be getting low on I names at this point. 

Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names 

[stockmanjr]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names 

Disney Character names for FL! What would be better than Hurricane Goofy!

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth.  It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just yap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 

No! It’s not getting worse. Are you for real??  
 

So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
 

Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you for real??  
 

So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
 

Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

Unfortunately, I see what the poster is saying. 

[TPAwx]

Watching idiots on the seawall in St Augustine on TWC as waves and spray crash over them.  JFC.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately, I see what the poster is saying. 

I don’t. 
 

i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too.  
 

And let’s go back to the 1950’s and early 1960’s….hurricanes everywhere..and all over New England at that.  

[MANDA]

Convection building around the northern and eastern quadrants of the circulation, there was nothing there for most of the morning.  A faster movement across FL and wider swing east over the gulf stream before heading to the north will given Ian the edge to reach low end Cat 1 status prior to SC landfall.  As a side note it really is interesting how through most if not all of the track it has favored the right edge of the cone.  Anyway radar and visible satellite not looking shabby.  Increase in organization, good gradient between Ian and high to the north and baroclinic assistance will make for a gusty time of it over the NE FL, GA and SC coasts.  Could be going post tropical around the time it approaches the coast with fronts near by.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No! It’s not getting worse. Are you for real??  
 

So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida??  Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938?  Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago?  
 

Just stop with that complete BS.  Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world.  It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell.  

you seemed to have missed the entire point of his post. but go off.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t. 
 

i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too.  

He's saying that things are politicized now which aids in people not wanting to leave. 

[gymengineer]

Is the general public relying too much on the NHC since of course it’s not the NHC that actually orders evacuations? Lee County ordered mandatory zone A and B evacuations Monday morning. I just think emergency management should be the primary public facing entity for decision making, not a forecasting agency. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

Is the general public relying too much on the NHC since of course it’s not the NHC that actually orders evacuations? Lee County ordered mandatory zone A and B evacuations Monday morning. I just think emergency management should be the primary public facing entity for decision making, not a forecasting agency. 

I doubt the general public is pulling up NHC online to see the cone, etc. They are watching local news to get their information. So if local media doesn't harp on the seriousness of it, it doesn't matter what NHC does. The general public won't know any better. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Convection building around the northern and eastern quadrants of the circulation, there was nothing there for most of the morning.  A faster movement across FL and wider swing east over the gulf stream before heading to the north will given Ian the edge to reach low end Cat 1 status prior to SC landfall.  As a side note it really is interesting how through most if not all of the track it has favored the right edge of the cone.  Anyway radar and visible satellite not looking shabby.

It’s already 70 mph and high end TS gusts are still happening in NE FL so it wouldn’t be a stretch at all for this to reach 80-85mph before landfall. There’s a lot of dry air and shear around with a disrupted core so it won’t come back more than that. 

[f2tornado]

19 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth.  It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just yap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 

Straight out of a talking points memo? A hurricane is weather, just like when someone in Chicago asks about that global warming when it's 20 below. That's weather too. Sea level rise is a worthy discussion, but not here, though I doubt the 2mm/yr rise changed the outcome much here. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He's saying that things are politicized now which aids in people not wanting to leave. 

Whatever?  He’s pushing his agenda, and what he said is exactly the definition of politicizing.

I just don’t agree.  So I said my piece. It’s all good. 

[gymengineer]

Just now, mappy said:

I doubt the general public is pulling up NHC online to see the cone, etc. They are watching local news to get their information. So if local media doesn't harp on the seriousness of it, it doesn't matter what NHC does. The general public won't know any better. 

I would guess so too, but so much of the discussion in the last couple of pages seemed to be around decision making based on the NHC’s forecasted track. 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s already 70 mph and high end TS gusts are still happening in NE FL so it wouldn’t be a stretch at all for this to reach 80-85mph before landfall. There’s a lot of dry air and shear around with a disrupted core so it won’t come back more than that. 

Agreed.