Hurricane Ian

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NHC was in a tough spot. After guidance started tilting the possibility of landfall to the SE on Monday....you can't just abandon Tampa either with such a large, vulnerable population. And guidance other than Ukie, did not show this until 18z Monday. 

I'll post my results later.

I ended up really doing well on LF timing and location, but I was in your camp on incorrectly hedging against that late round of intensification. My "city of focus" was Fort Myers.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

And yet, someone (or some group, or some algorithm) within NHC sniffed out this probability from the very beginning.

I'm not going to pretend to know anything about how mets or the NHC does things, but from my admittedly simplistic view and experience as a layperson, I think the easiest and most effective solution would be to hurricane warn any coastal area within the cone at T-36 hours of landfall.

That would cause way too many false alarms and then social science comes in. "They said we would get a hurricane before and we never did so I am staying." 

[TriadDeac]

St. Augustine...wow!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I ended up really doing well on LF timing and location, but I was in your camp on incorrectly hedging against that late round of intensification.

If anybody called for a 20mb drop before landfall...I'll buy you the next round.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If anybody called for a 20mb drop before landfall...I'll buy you the next round.   

Well, right, but I had it coming in at 115mph...that's a big miss. There were plenty of forecasts, that while not as aggressive as reality, were still decent. "F" for intensity, A+ for timing and locale.

[NeffsvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That would cause way too many false alarms and then social science comes in. "They said we would get a hurricane before and we never did so I am staying." 

That happens regardless though. People are incredibly ignorant when it comes to weather, statistics, and probability.

[Akeem the African Dream]

13 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Sad, I went there for my 30th birthday, stayed at Sandcastle Beach resort which is basically right behind the square. My parents loved it so much they bought a timeshare. Were supposed to go down today. Not sure whats going to happen with that place now.

Their first mistake was buying a timeshare 

If they own they will either lose all their money or have to pay a special assessment 

[dan11295]

I wonder how the communities closer to the coast that got the NW eye wall fared with the winds (e.g. Boca Grande to Englewood).  Obviously a lot of focus on the storm surge, but I know a lot of that construction is newer so maybe it held up fairly well. I know newer construction did better in Michael, which was a bit stronger.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, right, but I had it coming in at 115mph...that's a big miss. There were plenty of forecasts, that while not as aggressive as reality, were still decent. "F" for intensity, A+ for timing and locale.

I woke up yesterday and couldn't believe it. 

[weatherwiz]

Wow TS winds extending outwards of 415 miles from the center per latest discussion. That's insane 

[GramaxRefugee]

18 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

But the actual landfall point was always in the cone. From day 1. It's like people don't understand that the "cone" represents only the potential path of the eye.

 

Really, if one is in the cone or within the radius of the eye outside of the cone, preparations for an eyewall strike should be taken. And if they're within the radius of the hurricane force winds outside of the cone, then prepare for hurricane force winds. Likewise for TS force winds.

The entire Florida Peninsula was in that cone. 

[MJO812]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Wow TS winds extending outwards of 415 miles from the center per latest discussion. That's insane 

And becoming a hurricane again before hitting the Carolinas 

[Akeem the African Dream]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NHC was in a tough spot. After guidance started tilting the possibility of landfall to the SE on Monday....you can't just abandon Tampa either with such a large, vulnerable population. And guidance other than Ukie, did not show this until 18z Monday. 

Ukmet killed it

one of the weather observers in the sesh was going on about how it is a shit model and he never looks at it 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Akeem the African Dream said:

Ukmet killed it

one of the weather observers in the sesh was going on about how it is a shit model and he never looks at it 

 

 

Well, it typically is not the most reliable. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I woke up yesterday and couldn't believe it. 

I expected intensification after that ERC that night, but it was stunning to see how far it went. 

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

Their first mistake was buying a timeshare 

If they own they will either lose all their money or have to pay a special assessment 

Well it has been great for them the past 4 years....cheap and a pretty low annual maintenance fee. But yes, there is going to be a special assessment.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I woke up yesterday and couldn't believe it. 

I did note in my write up that if it ever were able to successfully complete the EWRC, that is may really benefit from what was a high octane gulf stream eddy off of Fort Myers, which is what happened IMO....in addition to trough moving in unison with it and accentuating outflow.  But at the end of the day, I just didn't think that it would be able to just "flip the switch" so soon after that terrain induced EWRC, and it did so about as proficiently will ever be observed. I saw all of the visual signs of it nearing completion when I posted the blog Tuesday night, but I just felt like it would just get caught up in that "stats quo" ..."looks better, but no increase in winds" situation.

I was going to wait until Wed AM to do my final, but figured, "what fun is looking at the answers to the test before you release".

I knew within about 2 hours my intensity forecast, along with the sw FL coast, was doomed.

[floridapirate]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That would cause way too many false alarms and then social science comes in. "They said we would get a hurricane before and we never did so I am staying." 

Well, that still will happen.  Do you think residents of Tampa and north will be evacuating the next time around when they got minimal effects?  Highly doubt it.

[TradeWinds]

1 minute ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

Ukmet killed it

one of the weather observers in the sesh was going on about how it is a shit model and he never looks at it 

 

 

Yes, a lot of people embarrassed themselves here. Also a shout out to the people that kept sharing the tweet about how well the GFS did. Our local met in Orlando actually lol'd last night when he mentioned the GFS.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If anybody called for a 20mb drop before landfall...I'll buy you the next round.   

JB did    ...and he was right-said 937 mb I think it actually got a bit lower

[weatherwiz]

As we've seen the last several years there is not much you can do sometimes when it comes to intensity. Now model intensity guidance had been very aggressive in this becoming a category 4 hurricane but as we got closure there actually became a bit more in the way of spread regarding this and for good measures. 

1) There was still the potential for a farther north track. The idea was this was it would encounter more shear and dry air which would disrupt the structure and in this scenario we saw the potential for a stall in which upwelling could eventually disrupt too. 

2) There was the idea of a stronger storm if it tracked farther south and east but again, the uncertainties regarding the more northerly track yielded some hesitation with this. 

After the fact, it's always easy to go back and "Monday morning QB" but it's also great to go back and learn. Was the idea of the shear/dry air being overstated here? At the end of the day there really is no way to know that until you get to a certain point. But looking back, when Ian left Cuba with an incredible structure still intact and the eye rapidly becoming more symmetrical and the while structure becoming as organized as it did...it should have became very apparent shear/dry air was going to be a non-factor. Perhaps there was a shot dry air could have been a factor when the ERC was occurring, however, given the ERC meant little change in structure then it should have became apparent. 

We've seen this with past monsters when dry air was a concern. Once a tropical system is fully mature and well organized with its structure and features it becomes very difficult to ingest the dry air. By this point the degree of rising motion and condensation is too much. There really was no way for Ian to ingest dry air into its center. 

Also, I saw someone post this from Twitter but the orientation of the ULJ (despite it's strength) was one which favored enhanced upper-level divergence and probably further aided in strengthening. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

JB did    ...and he was right-said 937 mb I think it actually got a bit lower

JB, The Nam, Ukmet all winners?  What is next, The Dolphins with the Super Bowl? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, TradeWinds said:

Yes, a lot of people embarrassed themselves here. Also a shout out to the people that kept sharing the tweet about how well the GFS did. Our local met in Orlando actually lol'd last night when he mentioned the GFS.

I thought I did a great job using climo as a tool to illustrate why the western edge of the track envelop was favored and that was dead on. Intensity forecasting is always a learning experience.

This was from First Call on Monday:

Future Track of Ian Dependent Upon Interaction with Trough: Climo maybe the best Tool

The track forecast is high confidence until Ian makes it around the western periphery of the high pressure node that is currently steering it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

 

It is at this point that it will being to turn towards the north and potentially even north northeast, as we approach mid week and it becomes under the influence of the northern periphery of the ridge and the base of a trough to the north.

 

The primary question then becomes will it lose enough longitude to reach the west coast of Florida, or will it remain off of the coast (and how far) until reaching the panhandle...there is simply no way to know for sure and educated guesses will rule the day.

Here is the guidance that will inform said "guesses":

 

Hurricane Track Guidance and Global Guidance

Note the cluster to the east, in the general vicinity of Tampa...

 

 

European Ensemble Suite

 

There is  similar cluster on the European suite, which has been admittedly biased to the east over the course of the past few days.

 

 

GFS Ensemble Suite:

 

A similar, albeit less defined trend is noted on the GFS suite, as the western mean seems to be pulled by a scattering of western outliers, as opposed to a concentrated cluster.

 

 

Canadian Ensemble Suite:

 

 

With such a stark dichotomy in forecast track, which is so crucial to intensity, as will be discussed momentarily, climatology may be the best guidance with respect to the future track of Hurricane Ian. And this is potentially grave news for the Tampa Bay metro area.

 

Here is a graphic courtesy of Matt Gross, which lists all of the major hurricane strikes between 1900 and 2010 throughout the state of Florida.

 

Note that the best guidance clustering is definitely within the eastern climo cluster, in the vicinity if Tampa. While it is too early to be confident, this is where the likelihood is highest at this point in time. All residents in this area should rush preparations to protect  life and property to completion over the next couple of days. Especially since it is this eastern track scenario that offers the most intense landfall potential.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And becoming a hurricane again before hitting the Carolinas 

Yeah when I woke up this morning and saw it had only weakened to 65 mph and how Ian still looked I felt more confident this would become  hurricane again over the open waters. 

[Wmsptwx]

Lol when you always go worst case scenario, sometimes you’re right.

[twister4999]

35 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

It was, wish the modeling would have held. I think some people got a sense of security when the track supposedly shifted north into the big bend area. Unfortately thats just how it goes with forecasting.

Agreed. And perhaps an unpopular opinion, but I don’t believe this was some of their better work. Sure, some of their early forecasts were spot on, but after that there were major shifts. I guess I’m just not tooting their horn as much as others. Did the best they could of course, but yeah this wasn’t what I would call great forecast verification. Their forecasts probably lead to people being put in a rough spot after evacuating south from Tampa ultimately putting themselves in the strike zone. Apologies if this belongs in the banter thread. 

[WestMichigan]

Maybe too early to tell, but looks like Ian is starting to build some convection again in the NE quadrant near the center.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, twister4999 said:

Agreed. And perhaps an unpopular opinion, but I don’t believe this was some of their better work. Sure, some of their early forecasts were spot on, but after that there were major shifts. I guess I’m just not tooting their horn as much as others. Did the best they could of course, but yeah this wasn’t what I would call great forecast verification. Their forecasts probably lead to people being put in a rough spot after evacuating south from Tampa ultimately putting themselves in the strike zone. Apologies if this belongs in the banter thread. 

Overall I have a ton of respect for the NHC crew, my one nitpick revolves around the construction of the cone. It's only designed to capture 2/3 of the average track error over the last 5 years. As forecasts have improved the cone gets smaller. What it doesn't do is factor in situations where there is larger than normal forecast uncertainty. I would love to see a little more of that uncertainty factored into forecasts.

[WEATHER53]

21 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

The entire Florida Peninsula was in that cone. 

Yes I am not gaa gaa either.  That early landfall point prediction may have come true but then 15-20 other different ones were offered including panhandle hits. The southwest coast of FL did take a giant hit and they got that right (which they should) but otherwise it was “cover all the bases” and one of them hit.!

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Overall I have a ton of respect for the NHC crew, my one nitpick revolves around the construction of the cone. It's only designed to capture 2/3 of the average track error over the last 5 years. As forecasts have improved the cone gets smaller. What it doesn't do is factor in situations where there is larger than normal forecast uncertainty. I would love to see a little more of that uncertainty factored into forecasts.

To be fair, Ian never once strayed outside the cone as far as landfall point (looking back at the graphics archive). I think there's a lot to be done in terms of communicating probability of different on the ground impacts. The general public has a hard time grasping what to expect.