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Hurricane Ian


Scott747
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40 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Unfortunately once over land recon can't fly into Ian so they use satellite estimates and models that estimate weakening so is it perfect? No. Could Ian be weaker than this? Yes. But is it still a powerful and dangerous hurricane? Definitely. That nw eyewall is still pounding many cities with high end winds and extreme flooding rain. 

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

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10 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

I understood what he was trying to say and still stand behind my explanation. I think the NHC knows what they're doing 

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34 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I think what he's trying to say is that right now (as of 10pm), the NHC is saying that this storm is producing surface level sustained winds of 100 mph somewhere.  You don't need recon planes or satellites or models to tell us that.  The storm is well inland in a populated area.  If the storm is actually producing 100 mph sustained winds, we would know.  But it's not.  So what is the NHC telling us?  That if this same storm were over open water then it would be producing 100 mph winds?  What good is that?  Why not just use actual surface wind measurements to tell us what the storm is currently doing?

When NHC says “max sustained winds of 105 mph”, that could be based on extrapolation or other estimates…as there may not be reliable surface obs in the exact/tiny spot where the max sustained winds are occurring. 
 

Usually, the max sustained wind values are very localized in a hurricane. Most areas “near” the eye wall (and even this covers a small geographic area) are probably 70-90 mph. The max of 105 mph could be a very tiny surface area on the ground (and therefore likely missed by obs)…but could still technically be correct because of the word “max”…even as it’s actually not experienced by a lot of people. 
 

The exact words are very important here. I agree there could probably be more accurate and meaningful ways of communicating the areas of higher sustained winds for a hurricane…but people are drawn to the “max” because it’s sexier. 
 

Just my two cents. :)

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51 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

10:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 27.4°N 81.5°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

The NHC does a fantastic job overall. Their forecast verifications speak for themselves. However, I am wondering why they are saying that it has been moving NNE for the last 6 hours when it has been a straight NE move each hour since 4 PM. It has moved from 26.8 N, 82.1 W, then to 27.4 N, 81.5 W at 10 PM.

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0Z UKMET: slightly west of 12Z near Georgetown, SC 

 HURRICANE IAN        ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N  81.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 29.09.2022    0  27.1N  81.8W      973            49
    1200UTC 29.09.2022   12  28.2N  80.7W      989            46
    0000UTC 30.09.2022   24  29.6N  79.7W      984            55
    1200UTC 30.09.2022   36  31.4N  79.2W      978            55
    0000UTC 01.10.2022   48  34.3N  79.5W      987            37
    1200UTC 01.10.2022   60  35.7N  80.0W     1002            28
    0000UTC 02.10.2022   72              CEASED TRACKING

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