ATDoel Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: Just something to consider. If Ian dumps as much rain as forecasted, this may not weaken as much as we would normally expect as it moves across FL(seen this happen in the past). This could have serious implications for the GA/SC/NC coast down the line. The brown ocean effect won't save Ian from all that dry air that it's going to wrap into its circulation later today. We should actually see Ian weaken faster than normal when compared to other landfalling hurricanes in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Storm surge M4.8ft Naples, FL. Appears to be a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Recon is inbound and will likely catch the western eyewall. I was dead wrong about intensity last night, so I'll sit this one out. You, me and many others. TPC was wrong but in the other direction. Intensity forecasting as I said a few days back is still the holy grail of tropical forecasting. I was uncertain if Ian would fully recover from the ERC. Sometimes storms do and sometimes they do not. I was counting on some shear to keep Ian below the TPC 130 mph max intensity. Was thinking 110-120 mph at landfall. Dead wrong. I did mention yesterday though that the ERC started at the wrong time and that potential did exist for full recovery, it fully recovered and exceeded! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Sanibel getting rocked with high winds on the webcams that are still live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This webcam is still live on Sanibel. I am surprised that the visibility is so good and few trees down. They have to be in the eyewall. https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber Still on the "weaker part" of eyewall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This webcam is still live on Sanibel. I am surprised that the visibility is so good and few trees down. They have to be in the eyewall. https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber Which one are you getting to load? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hotair said: Quote Tweet Dave Malkoff @malkoff · 34m Crazy #HurricaneHunt ! Our @USAFReserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron just landed. We hit hail, massive turbulence in the eye wall that dropped us 1000+ feet and saw #hurricaneIan rapidly intensity. It was NOT even calm inside the eye. edit: they suffered some damage to their plane in the storm We forget it is dangerous work. Especially in something like Ian. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still on the "weaker part" of eyewall. The storm surge started but the tsunami hasn't hit yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 I’m just catching up, so sorry if it’s been covered but how far inland are hurricane gusts expected? All the way to Orlando? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Which one are you getting to load? Periwinkle & Casa Ybel West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristospherein Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Which one are you getting to load? The Periwinkle ones are all loading. Periwinkle and Tarpon was showing a stop sign blowing pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: This webcam is still live on Sanibel. I am surprised that the visibility is so good and few trees down. They have to be in the eyewall. https://www.mysanibel.com/live-street-cams?utm_campaign=SanCapChamber&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber I think they have now gone offline? Stream unavailable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Kristospherein said: The Periwinkle ones are all loading. Periwinkle and Tarpon was showing a stop sign blowing pretty well. Starting to get a bit glitchy with a lot of buffering. The end may be coming soon for the feeds that are still up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Michigander said: Landfall at Sanibel I don't think it's considered landfall until much of the eye is ashore. But a noticeable tick east again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, sojitodd said: What is the thing with the door blowing at Tarpon and Casa Ybel East? A utility box of some sort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Have to almost wonder reading tweets from the USAF that we are not getting ideal data due to how violent this is. Dave Malkoff tweeted they dropped 1000 ft, had hail and dealt with extreme turbulence in the eye as well. At this point those guys are just trying to keep the plane in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MsHeatMiser Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Michigander said: Landfall at Sanibel Doesn’t happen until the center of the eye goes over land I’m pretty sure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just remember that the strongest winds were on the W side of the eyewall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crocodile23 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Anyone has a handy link with any NOAA official precipitation measurements map from stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I'm always amazed that these missions never have an accident.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Can you imagine!? I have to believe there were some terrifying moments in that aircraft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m just catching up, so sorry if it’s been covered but how far inland are hurricane gusts expected? All the way to Orlando? I'm near MCO. Local news said center to come through around Kissimmee/St. Cloud. Called for possible sustained 50-70 with gusts to 90-95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I don't think it's considered landfall until much of the eye is ashore. But a noticeable tick east again. The NHC called it landfall at Captiva, not me https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/281557.shtml? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: You can see the crazy mesovortices bouncing around inside the eye on visible, that must be what they're talking about hitting in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Just remember that the strongest winds were on the W side of the eyewall True the portion of the eyewall on shore is the "weaker" side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Michigander said: The NHC called it landfall at Captiva, not me https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/281557.shtml? that doesn't mention any type of official landfall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Tough to be sure, but it sure looks like you can see the surge advancing up Tarpon South Rd on the Periwinkle & Tarpon South feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Ian looks at his best. Beautiful CDO. Symmetrical, uniform cold cloud tops. Firing on all cylinders. First full Appearance of a cat 5 from a satellite standpoint imo. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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