Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 The latest NHC discussion (#24 for future archival) is absolutely worth reading. Eric Blake talks about the worth of the hurricane hunters and Tampa Bay doppler radar. Wish I could post it but I'm mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Stop sign tells the story That has to be at least 4 feet of water in that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 11AM Update no change in max sustained SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 82.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: The latest NHC discussion (#24 for future archival) is absolutely worth reading. Eric Blake talks about the worth of the hurricane hunters and Tampa Bay doppler radar. Wish I could post it but I'm mobile. [quote] 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281458 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000 ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this advisory. Ian is expected to make landfall in southwestern Florida in the next few hours as a catastrophic hurricane. No changes were made to the track forecast near Florida, except to be faster to come into line with the latest consensus aids. One important change is that Ian is likely to remain more intact as it crosses the Florida peninsula (due to both its stronger initial wind speed and its faster forecast forward speed), and this now increases the threat of hurricane-force winds on the east coast of Florida. This necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane Warning on the east coast of central Florida. While significant re-strengthening of Ian might not occur over the Atlantic Ocean, model guidance has been catching up with a trough interaction from a shortwave over the southern United States, and are stronger than yesterday on Ian's intensity with more baroclinic forcing. Thus, a Hurricane Watch has been issued from northeastern Florida northward up the coast through most of coastal South Carolina. The new intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, near the latest statistical-dynamical guidance. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently follow any evacuation orders in effect. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is beginning along the southwestern coast of Florida today near the landfall location. Hurricane-force winds are expected to extend well inland along near the core of Ian. Preparations to protect life and property should be urgently rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread across the Florida peninsula through Thursday and reach portions of the Southeast U.S. later this week and this weekend. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding is expected across portions of central Florida with considerable flooding in southern Florida, northern Florida, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina. Widespread, prolonged major and record river flooding is expected across central Florida. 4. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central Florida coast overnight, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible from northeastern Florida to portions of South Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 26.3N 82.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 27.3N 82.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 28.3N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 29.3N 80.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/1200Z 30.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 01/0000Z 32.9N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 34.7N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake [/quote] 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Water is rising FAST in Sanibel. A comparison of that area in Sanibel to the way it normally looks. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 That eye wall looks more ominous now then it did an HR ago... Good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Always amazes me how these storms will usually hit a brick wall at 155 just to stay just under Cat 5 for records, lol Any time for further strengthening? Because NHC rounds, so until they have enough evidence to support the jump from 135 to 140 kts, then it stays stuck at 155. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tatamy said: That has to be at least 4 feet of water in that location. I would say closer to 5'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Colder cloud tops trying to wrap around the eye again. Certainly not weakening at all. based on IR presentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Joe4alb said: That eye wall looks more ominous now then it did an HR ago... Good grief ERC complete just in time for land fall.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crocodile23 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Wow lightning has fired up again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 A new recon plane is about to take off, should get in there just in time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: What exactly was critical about determining rapid intensification this morning? It's not like it makes any tangible difference when you have a Cat 4 or Cat 5 storm. 135mph, 150mph, 160mph, it's all basically the same at this point. It's not like we suddenly started taking it seriously after that recon pass. Once the storm is this close to making landfall they shouldnt even send those guys out, it's unnecessary. There are still important data to collect for research purposes. As the models get finer and finer resolution, there needs to be observational checks on their output. 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: What exactly was critical about determining rapid intensification this morning? It's not like it makes any tangible difference when you have a Cat 4 or Cat 5 storm. 135mph, 150mph, 160mph, it's all basically the same at this point. It's not like we suddenly started taking it seriously after that recon pass. Once the storm is this close to making landfall they shouldnt even send those guys out, it's unnecessary. One good reason a Cat 4 vs. Cat 5 designation matters is because it factors into the amount of financial assistance that can be authorized to aid in recovery. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Absurd amount of lightning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: A new recon plane is about to take off, should get in there just in time. It's going to be really close. Should be there in about an hour. Plenty of time to make one last pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 One good reason a Cat 4 vs. Cat 5 designation matters is because it factors into the amount of financial assistance that can be authorized to aid in recovery.This is getting bantery but I do not think category dictates the financial restitution in any given legislative or emergency coordinated relief and assistance. A distaster is a disaster mitigated by the severness of the aftermath. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Wow highest I’ve found yet. I think this is about 8K or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: Recent gust to 63 mph at St. James City (Davis network). Recent gust at this location up to 81 mph within the last 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 With the angle of attack and large eye, a large area is going to be hammered with that eyewall. Only moving 10 mph as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Took a little jog back north.. Looks like it will end up close to the forecast, which is unfortunate for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 30 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Stop sign tells the story Winds are really whipping now. Impressed with the camera and connection. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Naples at 7 feet now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Wow highest I’ve found yet. I think this is about 8K or so Found this just now at 11:22am. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Visible satellite shows the eye clearing out/rounding. Still appears to be strengthening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherguysc said: Found this just now at 11:22am. Holy crap...I hope that is just some sort of error. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguysc Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: Holy crap...I hope that is just some sort of error. I do as well but the new update at 11:32 shows 222.8 in that same area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: Holy crap...I hope that is just some sort of error. Just a quick question, since when it moves onshore winds will be blowing over land rather than water will that reduce maximum winds on that quadrant or will it really not matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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